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North East : BJP march halted

	May 17, 2004

The Bharatiya Janata Party which began its march to the North East about five years back with the hope to strengthen its presence in the region, suffered a major set back in the parliamentary polls. Though the party strategists employed all methods to win over the electorate in the region, but failed to gain their trust.

In Assam, which has the largest representation of the seven north-eastern states in the Lok Sabha (14), the BJP tried its best to win over the people of Assam by successfully persuading Bhupen Hazirka, who is known as Bard of Brahmaputra, to join the party and contest the Lok Sabha polls. But this strategy miserably failed. Bhupen who contested from the capital city of Guwahati, even failed to win his own seat. Perhaps people felt that he should continue to work freely and creatively instead being bogged down in the mess of politics. The acute unhappiness about him joining the saffron brigade as well was seen in the voting.

“We knew that Hazarika was losing the seat as he joined a party with whose ideology the people of Assam are not very comfortable,” said Chandra Mohan Patowary, general secretary of the AGP.

On the other hand, the Congress party improved its tally by winning nine seats of the 14 seats. Credit, according to political analysts, goes to Tarun Gogoi, the chief minister, whose position in the party at the state and national levels is hugely strengthened. The BJP and the regional party, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) could manage only two each. One seat of Kokrajhar has gone in favour of an Independent, backed by the BJP and Bodo groups.

However, the Congress suffered a shock in Dibrugarh constituency which was won by a non-Congress party for the first time since Independence. The AGP bagged the seat by defeating the Congress heavyweight Paban Singh Ghatowar. In the last two general elections, the AGP suffered a whitewash and these results indicates a steady growth in its strength.

The overwhelming Congress victory has vindicated the party’s stand that the presence of the revered cultural icon, Bhupen Hazarika in the rival BJP’s camp would not hurt the party’s prospects. People in the state did not want Hazarika among career politicians and the party lost a seat that it had held. The BJP could just hold on to Nogaon under Rajen Gohain and also won from Mangaldoi.

The results show that Congress has received 36.47 per cent of votes compared to 37.38 per cent in the last election, AGP has improved its share with 21.04 per cent votes compared to 17.9 per cent it received in the last polls and the BJP dropped a huge 10 per cent, down to 23.69 per cent compared to 33 per cent last time.



Arunachal

Notwithstanding its defeat in Assam and other parts of the country, the BJP has, however, found reasons to rejoice in Arunachal Pradesh where the party clinched both seats - Arunachal East and Arunachal West.

The BJP which engineered a coup of sorts, under political war horse Gegong Apang, to capture power from the Congress in the hill state last year, has opened its Lok Sabha account from there.

The poll boycott call given by the influential All AP Students Union in protest against enrolment of 1,497 Chakma-Hajong refugees in the state’s voters’ list failed to prevent the electorate from exercising their right to vote.

The BJP’s stand that polls should be allowed since the Chakma-Hajong refugees issue could be settled amicably even after the elections was vindicated with an over 50 per cent poll turn-out as well as its victory.

In Arunachal East constituency, the BJP candidate Tapi Gao defeated his nearest Congress rival and sitting MP Wancha Rajkumar while in the West constituency Khiren Rijiju trounced his Arunachal Congress rival Kamen Ringo. In a state of small constituencies and population, the margins were decisive - over 40,000 for each winner.

The Congress and Arunachal Congress alliance are probably regretting their decision not to nominate AC leader Tony Pertin as their candidate in the East constituency. Denied the ticket, Pertin jumped onto the fray as an independent candidate and took away many anti-BJP votes.

In the West, the division of the dominant Nyishi votes favoured the BJP. But given Apang’s political unpredictability (he was the longest serving chief minister in the state and a Congressman for 17 years till he was ousted in an internal party coup), his next moves vis-a-vis the Centre would bear close watching as the Delhi drama unfolds.



Mizoram

The Mizo National Front swept to an overwhelming victory over the three opposition parties of the state on 13 May when both their candidates for the Lok Sabha seat and the Kolasib Assembly seat bye-elections won with comfortable margins. It was indeed a time for rejoicing for the MNF party which came back to power after five years of rule in last November’s Assembly elections as these victories see them more firmly ensconced in the seat of power.

However, the setback at the Centre for the BJP-led NDA may dampen the party’s spirits as the MNF had banked heavily on the NDA coming back to power in getting their candidate, the sitting MP Vanlalzawma, elected. At the time of writing, the NDA’s failure to form a government may hurt the MNF since it had used the “MP on the ruling side” ploy to get their candidate elected. The MNF, which had given outside support to the NDA through the joint MNF-Mizoram People’s Conference MP during the last Parliament and which had joined the NDA earlier this year, had used the India Shining campaign heavily during the Lok Sabha polls build-up.

Having aligned with the BJP-led government at the Centre, the MNF had built up its credibility with funds from the Centre. Therefore, the iron was still hot when elections for the Lok Sabha were called and with the NDA seen as poised to return to power, it was a foregone conclusion that the MNF would secure the Lok Sabha seat. However, it took everyone, including the MNF party, by surprise when Vanlalzawma won by a margin of over 22,000 votes over his nearest opponent.

The rejoicing in the MNF camp became subdued when results all over the country came pouring in and the BJP lost ground against the Congress and its allies. This was not surprising as the MNF had become totally dependent on the Centre and any change here could affect its functioning in the future. MNF leaders are acutely aware that without funds from the Centre, the MNF party could flounder midway. The issues of local governance, especially at the village and lower levels, are crucial.

People here had voted for a representative on the treasury benches to do something meaningful for the state. So if the bandwagon fails to take them anywhere,public criticism may be reserved for the party which had “misled” them. If this happens, the victory of MNF could mark the beginning of many future difficulties



Meghalaya

The results for Meghalaya’s two parliamentary constituencies were predictable. Although former Lok Sabha Speaker P.A. Sangma did a most unexpected political jig on the eve of the elections, and this could have shaken the conscious citizenry anywhere else, here in the idyllic land of clouds, personalities have always mattered more than the party flags they carry. The Garos of Tura may be somewhat disillusioned by the lack of development in that district headquarter but for the public in the isolated villages of Garo Hills, Purno Sangma is nothing less than an icon.

Sangma has been in the rough and tumble of national politics for over two decades. He has proved his mettle as Speaker of the Lok Sabha, a feat that few from India’s turbulent North East have accomplished. He has served as a Cabinet minister, was a delegate to the International Labour Organisation. The Garos are not expected to pull their favourite son down from grace.

Sangma’s opponent, Dr Mukul Sangma, a doctor by profession and currently minister for Public Works Department and Information Technology in the DD Lapang ministry, was an unwilling candidate in the first place and lacked the charisma to take his opponent on. The Congress party could not find any takers for the contest. Former chief minister SC Marak, who had earlier been projected as the likely candidate to fight Sangma, declined to contest.

For the Congress party in Meghalaya, perhaps it was a foregone conclusion that the Tura seat was not going its way, especially after Sonia Gandhi cancelled her trip because of bad weather.

In the Shillong parliamentary seat, Congress candidate PR Kyndiah started the race much before any of the other parties even sat down to think of a candidate. He was therefore miles ahead of them. Kyndiah’s alleged misutilisation of the MPLADS was one issue that his opponents used to the hilt. But in a state where 85 per cent of voters use their hearts and not their heads while voting such issues and Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin were unlikely to cut any ice with the rural voter especially as Shillong city only reported a 39 per cent voter turnout.

The combined regional party candidate, Professor Loniak Marbaniang, was not able to cover much ground. By the time his name was announced, he had exactly three weeks to campaign. BJP candidate, SS Lyngdoh, son of late GG Swell, former Deputy Speaker of the Lok Sabha, who till the very end was optimistic of winning the elections, must be congratulated for having the courage of conviction to accept the party ticket. He came in third, polling just 58,560 votes.

A jubilant Pradesh Congress in Meghalaya feels confident that its candidate will be given a ministerial berth because other north-eastern states, barring Assam and Manipur, have not returned any Congress candidate.

The Meghalaya chief minister, who is also the Congress Legislature Party leader, left for Delhi last week along with PCC president Salseng C. Marak and Kyndiah. Sources in the Congress said he is likely to push for a “new combination” in Meghalaya besides lobbying with the AICC to accommodate Kyndiah in the new formation at the Centre.

With the changed political equations in the country and at the Centre, where a Congress-led coalition government under party chief Sonia Gandhi is imminent, Lapang is said to be keen on carrying out “swift changes” in the state. The chief minister is expected to seek the AICC’s clearance to drop some coalition partners and induct new ones.

The Congress-led MDA coalition has the United Democratic Party (UDP), Meghalaya Democratic Party (MDP), the Hill State Peoples Democratic Party (HSPDP) and the Khun Hynniewtrep National Awakening Movement (KHNAM). The Congress is the single largest party with 28 legislators.

The move to change the coalition, though, by possibly dropping the UDP and the MDP is not new. Since the very beginning, Lapang has been looking for opportunities to cobble up a coalition with which he would be completely comfortable. After the Assembly elections in March last year, Lapang took the support of the regional parties like the UDP and the MDP to keep the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) out of the race for power.

But with the NCP breaking up and six of its legislators having merged with the Congress, the party’s strength has gone up and it has come to a position from where it can dictate terms to its smaller coalition partners. There is also an outside chance that Lapang may invite the NCP, which now has only eight members (previously 14) to join the coalition.

Now, Lapang is happy to keep the HSPDP and the KHNAM, which have two legislators each, on his side to form a coalition minus the UDP and the MDP. According to the new legislation, Lapang has to trim his ministry to 12 from the existing 41 in a House of 60 members by July 7.



Tripura : CPI-M romps home

The ruling CPI-M here bagged both LS seats. The party has won the seats for five consecutive terms. This time, it was looking for an increase in margins, a result of a split opposition.

In the 1999 elections, the CPI-M candidate Samar Chowdhury contesting from the West Tripura constituency defeated his nearest rival from Trinamool Congress, former chief minister Sudhir Ranjan Majumder by a margin of 1,98,399 votes. This time, Khagen Das of CPI-M defeated Nirmala Dasgupta of the Congress by double that margin: 3,84,636 votes. In further humiliation, Dasgupta forfeited his security deposit.

Similarly, in the East Tripura (ST) constituency, the CPI-M candidate, Baju Ban Riyan, achieved the same result by beating Pulin Dewan of the BJP by 3,10,836 votes.

The ostensible reasons for such lopsided defeats, especially for the BJP, were several: the severing of ties with the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura, a tribal party; lack of political activity and contact with the public.

Though the INPT joined NDA as a constituent and supported BJP in East Tripura constituency, the alliance ran into rough weather when the BJP accused the INPT of being insurgent-friendly.

The CPI-M is upbeat not only because it emerged victorious in Tripura, but also because of its expectations of a secular government at the Centre with its support.

The political aftermath of the elections cannot be distanced from developments relating to the ongoing armed conflict in the state between security forces and tribal militants. Thus, on May 6, 72 cadres of the banned National Liberation Front of Tripura came overground while two factions of this group, one led by Nayanbasi Jamatiya, signed a cease-fire agreement with the Centre last month. Another major outfit - the more powerful All Tripura Tiger Force has expressed interest in a dialogue with the Centre to come overground, a move welcomed by chief minister Manik Sarkar. But there is a major sticking point: the ATTF insists on three preconditions: those who entered Tripura after 1949 and whose names were not on the voters list of 1952 should be declared foreigners; presence of a UN representative at the proposed talks; the issue of sovereignty should be on the agenda.

It remains to be seen how the CPI-M led state government with its secular friends in Delhi tackles the challenge of bringing peace here and speeding up rural development in a state where armed operations have severely curtailed developmental activity.



Nagaland

Hint of change in talks course

Former chief minister and Nagaland Congress president S.C. Jamir today

hinted that there might be a change of course in the peace process with the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak-Muivah).

The Nagaland PCC will project “the real political issue” to the central leadership, he said in a press statement from New Delhi. Jamir has been camping in the capital since early this week and was inducted into the Congress Working Committee (CWC) on Thursday evening, sources said.

The party has hinted at the induction of a political figure in the peace talks with the outfit.

“What we need is a transparent and visible process of dialogue with the underground groups, a political process with a human face and to take the people into confidence. Such important matters cannot be left in the hands of retired bureaucrats having little understanding of the complex nature of the problem,” Jamir said.

He iterated it was the Congress which recognised the reality of the Naga political problem and had conducted negotiations with the federal group six times at the highest levels.

Jamir has alleged that the NDA government had dragged “the dialogue” for years without any tangible results. “The people have been kept in the dark about the outcome so far.”

He promised the Congress would take up the issue seriously to pave the way for an honourable and acceptable settlement of the Naga political problem. “As far as the Congress is concerned, we will continue to treat all underground brethren as an integral part of Naga society,” he added.

Coming down heavily on the state government, Jamir said it has been “subverted and compromised beyond repair”.

Alleging that the elections in Nagaland were unfair, Jamir said: “The bullet won over the ballot and the democratic process was a sham.”

In another development, the Congress said chief minister Neiphiu Rio should “eat his words” before returning to the party fold, either directly or indirectly.

Yesterday, Rio had not ruled out support to a Congress-led alliance at the Centre after the Nagaland People’s Front (NPF) candidate Wangyuh Konyak defeated Asungba Sangtam of the Congress.

Leader of the Congress in the Assembly, I. Imkong said Rio had said only weeks ago that the “Jamir era” in Nagaland was over. He had said the Congress had been wiped out and it would never return to power.

“Now he has to eat his own words before he joins the Congress,” he said over telephone. Rio is said to have made it clear that he would return to the Congress “minus Imkong and Jamir.