India News Online » News Analysis » Indian Politics » 

North East : Assam : All parties in election mode

	March 13, 2006

With Assembly elections approaching fast, all parties in Assam are now in poll gear, busy with the difficult task of choosing electoral partners, seat-sharing arrangements and selecting candidates for entering the poll arena. The major contestants in the State are the ruling Congress and the opposition Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) which recently split into two factions - one led by former Chief Minister Mahanta and the other led by its former president Goswami. Besides, there are others like the BJP, Left parties, the Samajwadi Party and others which are trying to make inroads in the troubled region.



The Congress which is defending champion in the state politics, is on the defensive. According to reports, it is all set to appoint a caretaker president to manage its Assam unit in the run-up to the Assembly elections next month.



Since incumbent PCC president Bhubaneswar Kalita will contest from Rangia, the party feels it is necessary to appoint a caretaker chief.



PCC media cell chairman I.P. Hazarika confirmed that such a move was definitely on the cards. One of the vice-presidents could be appointed to the post while the polls are on. There are five vice presidents and all are seeking party tickets. As of now, former MP Vishnu Prasad of Nagaon and former MLA Lakhi Saikia of Mangaldoi are the front-runners.



Encouraged by a fragmented Opposition and “huge response” from the people, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi claims that the Congress would win at least 80 of the 126 Assembly seats, and retain power. The Chief Minister attributed this to “visible signs” of development.



On whether his party was hoping to get support from the influential All Assam Students’ Union (AASU), which has been traditionally close to the AGP, Gogoi said, “May be in some seats.”



When it was pointed out that his party was not projecting him as chief minister for a second term, he quipped: “This (the question) shows the media, too, is now sure about my party forming the government.”





Minority factor: Congress changes tack



Meanwhile, uncertain about which way the immigrant Muslim vote will swing in the post-IMDT scenario, the Congress is focusing on the indigenous minority population to compensate for a possible erosion of its traditional votebank.



In all likelihood, the party’s election manifesto will include a welfare package for the group, which has been overlooked by most parties over the years in their obsession with the immigrant Muslim vote.



A senior Congress leader said the decision had, in part, been influenced by the feeling of betrayal that appears to have taken root in a section of the immigrant Muslims since the Supreme Court struck down the IM(DT) Act in July. “We may not get the kind of support we have got in the past from the immigrant Muslims...it is better to be prepared. It is also high time we turned our attention towards the local Muslims. A lot has changed since the IM(DT) Act was scrapped and we have to accept this reality and move forward,” he said, referring to the sizeable population of indigenous minorities in Upper Assam.



The Congress leader admitted that the formation of the Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF), a conglomerate of minority parties, had queered the pitch for the ruling party. The AUDF, he said, was trying to woo mainly migrants living in the Char areas (isles) or along the Indo-Bangladesh border.



Another reason why the Congress is anxious to cover its flanks is the emergence of the Assam Muslim Yuba Samaj, which has convened a meeting in Guwahati on March 14 to discuss the problems being faced by indigenous Muslims.



A Congress source said the issue was first raised by party spokesman Mehdi Alam Bora at the PCC executive meeting late last month. Bora argued that indigenous Muslims needed some kind of assurance in the changed political scenario, but his proposal ostensibly did not go down well with minority leaders from Lower Assam and the three Barak Valley districts of Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi. He urged the leadership to include a special package for indigenous Muslims in the manifesto to send the message that they are an integral part of the party. He also made a case for some kind of reservation in educational institutions and government departments.





Third Front : Assam emerging as testing ground



Meanwhile, Assam is emerging as the first testing ground for the formation of a third front. The regional outfits opposing both the Congress and the BJP at the national level, are coming together to contest the coming Assembly polls in the state. The third front in the state includes the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the Left parties - CPI(M) and CPI - the Samajwadi Party, the Nationalist Congress Party and the Telugu Desam Party. This is the first time that the Left parties are coming together with the TDP after the fall of the United Front Government at the Centre in 1998.



The TDP and the Samajwadi Party do not have much of a presence in Assam. But their association with the third front is being seen by observers as an indication of an experiment which could later emerge at the national level. It is especially significant in the light of differences between the UPA and the Left on what the Left perceives as the pro-US foreign policy being pursued by the Manmohan Singh Government.



In a related development, the Samajwadi Party on March 9 struck a discordant note on a pre-poll tie up with the AGP, less than a week after the regional party asserted that talks with it for an understanding were progressing smoothly.



A brief press release issued by the Samajwadi Party said there was no alliance with the AGP and that the state unit had not been asked to carry out discussions with the AGP. Former secretary and election observer of the party, Mahavir Singh, told the media that an alliance with the AGP would be possible if their demand to field 12 candidates is accepted. The party also declared a list of eight candidates today, making it more difficult to arrive at an understanding with the regional party.





Sangma strategy



Veteran North East leader and former Lok Sabha Speaker P.A. Sangma has unveiled what he called a “unique and innovative” election agreement among the Nationalist Congress Party, the AGP (Progressive), the CPI(M) and the nascent Assam United Democratic Front to field common candidates in about 90 of the 126 Assembly seats at stake.



Describing it as “two-tier seat adjustments”, Sangma said the constituents of the alliance would be free to enter into seat-sharing pacts with anybody outside the quartet except the Congress and the BJP. “This is a unique and innovative arrangement being experimented for the first time in the country and the formula could well be the model for other political parties.”



Interestingly, a power-sharing formula, which is now common across the country, was first tried out in the Northeast. B.B. Lyngdoh and Capt. Williamson Sangma had agreed to rotate the chief ministership between them in Meghalaya way back in 1979. The formula mooted by Sangma after “four sleepless nights” could actually turn into a multi-layered arrangement because both the CPI(M) and the Assam United Democratic Front are separately negotiating with the AGP, too.



The breakaway AGP (P), led by former chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, is negotiating with the Autonomous State Demand Committee in Karbi Anglong and other smaller parties elsewhere.



Sangma said the four parties had agreed to contest 113 seats among them, which means they will opt for consensus candidates in 90 and so-called friendly contests in 23.



The NCP leader said the constituents of the alliance had “tentatively agreed” to allow the AGP (P) to field candidates for 40 seats and the CPI(M) in 18. The remaining 55 seats will be shared by the NCP and the Assam United Democratic Front.



“The Assam United Democratic Front has submitted a first list of 35 seats, of which we can straightaway approve 24,” Sangma said.



The CPI(M) and the UDF, however, were guarded in their admission of the arrangement with Sangma be cause both are still keeping their doors open for the AGP.





BJP first list



The BJP on March 10 announced its first list of candidates. Observers note that the party played it safe and there were few surprises in the list.



For the total of 65 seats that will go to the polls in the first phase, the party came out with a list of 60 candidates. This included former Union minister Bijoya Chakraborty, who will contest the prestigious Dispur seat, and sitting MLA Bimalangshu Roy, who will battle it out in Silchar.



Other sitting MLAs, whose constituencies face polls in the first phase, have been renominated. They are Ranjan Das from North Karimganj, Parimal Suklabaidya from Dholai, Kali Ranjan Deb from Katigorah, Rameshwar Teli from Duliajan and Sushil Dutta from Lumding. The party had won eight seats in the last elections in 2001.



Briefing mediapersons, BJP general secretary Pramod Mahajan said the central election committee has approved the list of 60 candidates that was forwarded by the state election committee. The decision on the list was taken by the BJP’s central election committee, which met under the presidentship of Rajnath Singh. Senior leaders Atal Bihari Vajpayee, L.K. Advani, Jaswant Singh and other members of the committee attended it.