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North East : Arunachal Pradesh : Latest developments |
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The first actions of Gegong Apang as chief minister of Arunachal Pradesh after he ousted the Congress government of Mukut Mithi give us a clear picture of the entire destabilisation process.
Apang lost no time in giving ministerial positions to all but four of the 40 defector MLAs. The shocker is that even the Speaker is to become a minister. The chief minister has brazenly flouted a recommendation of the Administrative Reforms Commission which says that no more than a tenth of a legislature should be made ministers. The idea had only recently been endorsed by the Centre.
Similar things have, of course, happened in other states. The trouble is they can happen virtually any time in a mini-state like Arunachal Pradesh where MLAs’ loyalties can be subverted with relatively greater ease through allurements or threats. As such, it is not unlikely that some other adventurer might seek to repeat the Apang act. It is up to the larger national parties to see that they offer no encouragement to these sordid political games. Sadly, the BJP on this occasion, and the Congress in the past, have failed to live up to this role. The country simply cannot afford such mindless ping-pong in its border territories which makes for a break in policy, disrupts administration and animates subversive lobbies.
Apang has released MLAs and ministers who had earlier been booked under the state’s equivalent of the POTA for hobnobbing with the Naga underground associated with the NSCN (Isac-Muivah) faction, with which the Centre has been conducting negotiations and the BJP is said to be friendly. What’s more, the new regime has declared its intention to accord autonomous status to the Naga-dominated districts of Tirap and Changlang. This gives the game away. The NSCN’s demand of a Greater Nagaland is certain to get a fillip from Apang’s announcement. In retrospect, it might appear that Mithi lost his government for resisting NSCN (I-M)’s pressures in relation to the two districts.
BJP/NSCN(IM) tacit hand in the toppling game
Despite the BJP and NSCN (I-M)’s denials, it’s widely believed that their combination has hit the Congress and paved the way for Apang and the nascent United Democratic Front. This comes within months of a similar operation in Nagaland.
The Apang camp says the 39 Congress MLAs, who broke away to form Congress (D) before joining hands with Arunachal Congress (Apang is the lone MLA) and an unattached member to float the UDF, weren’t happy with the Mithi government.
Mithi is convinced the BJP and the NSCN had conspired to topple his government. And he may not be too far off the mark. This is borne out by the fact that Union Minister of State for Home Swami Chinmayanand had criticised the state’s efforts - Operation Hurricane - to cleanse Tirap district of militants.
Besides, during his visit to the district, the minister is also reported to have had discussions with some so-called disgruntled Congress MLAs, including Wanglat who was earlier arrested for his alleged connections with NSCN (I-M) and was subsequently expelled from the party.
But what could have driven the Swami to criticise the Mithi government’s action and to meet politicians like Wanglat? This must be seen in the context of the ongoing Centre-NSCN (I-M) dialogue. After over six years of discussions, time may be running out for both. Given that the Lok Sabha elections are due next year, a settlement of the Naga political problem could reap some dividends for the party in the North East, where it has little representation.
It is abundantly clear that the NSCN (I-M) does not expect sovereignty for Nagaland as the end result of the talks. But, at the same time, it would not budge so easily from its demand for integration of all Naga-inhabited areas, including the present state of Nagaland, under one politico-administrative umbrella. The Centre may also want to try to reach common ground on this, although Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, with Naga populations, have rejected any idea of dividing their land.
This could jeopardise any plans of the Centre on the question of an expanded Nagaland unless the concerned states cooperated. For that to happen, there would have to be governments in these states that would support the Centre’s efforts to reach common ground.
Apang has not yet said what he thinks of the integration demand but Mithi’s firm position was known. So it may not be too far fetched to imagine that the BJP-led government at the Centre would try out someone else in the hope that a new government may be more accommodative. The NSCN (I-M) also has a stake with two districts of the state under its control and the current pressure would be off.
Post Arunachal developments, a feeling that is gaining ground is that the BJP perhaps is pampering the NSCN (I-M) too much for its narrow political interests. This is like playing with fire especially when a state like Arunachal Pradesh, an area that China claims as its own, is concerned. It should be borne in mind too that in the 1960s and 1970s the current leaders of the I-M had established political and military links with China and Pakistan.
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