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No-Confidence Motion against Vajpayee Government : An acid test for NDA allies

	August 18, 2003

The continuing stalemate in Parliament over an inquiry report on defence purchases during the Kargil conflict has taken a serious turn with the Congress deciding to table a No-Confidence Motion against the NDA government on August 18. The debate will be begin at 12 noon with Leader of the Opposition Sonia Gandhi addressing the House and moving the motion. It will continue till August 19 when Prime Minister Vajpayee will reply to the debate. Voting will take place at 6 p.m.

The two-day proceedings will be telecast live on all news channels.

Sonia Gandhi’s notice for a vote of no-confidence against the Vajpayee government — the first in the 13th Lok Sabha — caught the government by “surprise”, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj admitted. And while she said the Government is “100 per cent confident” that the motion will be defeated, the notice has, sent the government scurrying to mobilise the support of its NDA allies. In fact, an NDA meeting will be called soon to discuss the motion.

Any No-Confidence motion is viewed seriously as it can result in the fall of the Government if the Opposition musters a simple majority of members present in Parliament. But the Congress also knows that this motion poses no threat to the government which has significant numbers to protect itself. A senior Congress MP said, “A vote of no-confidence has two purposes — one, to replace the government; the other to place on record the anger and the anguish of the people. Our purpose is the second. It is not our intention to destabilise the government.” Indeed, it is a device to help the Opposition achieve its goal of getting the Prime Minister to reply to a variety of issues, including defence purchases.

The notice appears to be the logical culmination of the growing confrontation between the government and the Opposition, witnessed during the current session of Parliament. With elections to five state Assemblies due in November this year, Parliament has seen an aggressive Opposition putting the government on the mat on issues varying from building a Ram temple at Ayodhya to the CBI’s apparent “burial” of the Babri Masjid demolition case against senior members of the BJP-led government, the Taj corridor project controversy in Uttar Pradesh and finally defence purchases. There has been no effort at compromise or a search for common ground between the two adversaries.

The Congress and the BJP have already issued three-line whips to their members asking them to be present in the Lok Sabha throughout August 18 and 19 and vote according to the directions given by their chief whips. Hectic political activity has begun on both sides of the political divide. Given the strength of the ruling NDA and the support it enjoys from other friendly parties outside the Government, there is hardly any doubt about the outcome of voting on August 19.

The Congress is holding consultations with like-minded parties in the Opposition. Former Lok Sabha Speaker Shivraj Patil spoke to leaders of Left parties, the senior party leader Dasmunshi got in touch with the Rashtriya Janata Dal while Sonia Gandhi herself spoke to Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav.

On the other hand, BJP spokesman V.K. Malhotra has welcomed the motion and said it would prove to be a “vote of confidence” for the government. “This will give us an opportunity to talk of our achievements,” Malhotra asserted and said the Opposition resorted to the no-confidence motion because it had failed to keep the controversy on the PAC issue alive. Malhotra alleged that the “hurried tabling” of the incomplete PAC report on Operation Vijay pertaining to Kargil conflict, and the suppressing of information given by the CVC (Central Vigilance Commission) from committee members smacked of a well-planned conspiracy. He has charged the repeated stalling of proceedings of the House on allegations of a “non-existent” report was not a loss for the government but a “loss for the nation, democracy and the image of Parliament.

According to observers, the Opposition’s no-confidence move has to be seen more in the context of the ensuing Assembly elections in the country. The motion will give the Opposition leaders a chance to attack the Vajpayee government performance, which is being highlighted by the BJP in the run up to the polls. Congress chief Sonia Gandhi would definitely make the best of being seen by millions of TV viewers.

The debate will also help the Opposition leaders to launch a combined attack on NDA weak spots, including the pressure of the Sangh (RSS) outfits on the BJP on issues like Ayodhya.

Some of the allies of the BJP in the NDA, who do not see eye to eye with BJP policies, will have to stick together. It is highly unlikely that any of the allies in the NDA will back the Sonia motion, which is likely to be defeated by at least 100 votes.Only the DMK is sulking over the overtures made by the BJP towards its archrival AIADMK. The National Conference of Jammu and Kashmir is expected to abstain so as not to be seen as backing the NDA from which it has quit.

The no-confidence motion is a major first step of the Opposition to take on the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. This comes in the aftermath of a dinner meeting held by CPI-M leader Somnath Chatterjee and the discussions there among the key Opposition leaders. There are signs that the differences among the Opposition parties are slowly disappearing over the leadership of Sonia Gandhi, with the Left playing an active role in the task of forming a secular front.



Battlelines drawn : Strategy sessions on

Ahead of the no-confidence motion debate in the Lok Sabha on August 18, the NDA and the major opposition party Congress held strategy sessions in Delhi, though the outcome of the voting is a forgone conclusion. It is more of a battle to hit out at the weak spots in the rivals; camp rather than any serious attempt to destabilize the Vajpayee-led government.

Except for a somewhat contrary note struck by the DMK (NDA’s ally from Tamil Nadu), partners in the National Democratic Alliance have closed ranks behind the Vajpayee Government. The Government’s parliamentary managers are counting on the support of 323 members (in a House of 543); besides, the Government hopes to get the AIADMK’s 11 votes. The AIADMK is the ruling party in Tamil Nadu.



BJP allies’ stand

The problem for the NDA managers is how to hang on to the support of the DMK (an NDA ally since 1999) without having to spurn the 11-member AIADMK, a new and “unlisted” supporter. At the NDA meeting this morning, the DMK representative, T.R. Baalu, is reported to have questioned the very desirability of the alliance wanting to enlist the AIADMK’s support. However, Baalu failed to get a categorical assurance that the NDA managers would not solicit the AIADMK’s support. Later, the NDA convener, George Fernandes, made it clear that if the AIADMK wanted to support the Government there was very little anyone could do about it.

NDA sources indicate that the only concession that could be made to the DMK’s sentiments is that an effort would be made to ensure the MDMK leader, Vaiko’s presence and participation in the no-confidence motion debate. Vaiko has been languishing in prison under the controversial Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA); but the Centre has not been able to provide any aid and comfort to its Tamil Nadu allies. Finding himself in a quandary, the DMK leader and party president, M. Karunanidhi, was reported to have observed that the “DMK has not yet taken any decision” on the Left parties’ call to vote against the Government. The Left has been nudging the DMK to break ranks with the NDA ever since Ms. Jayalalithaa has moved closer to the Vajpayee Government.

The NDA Government has support from the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the major outside supporter, as well as an assurance from the Bahujan Samaj Party, the BJP’s partner in Uttar Pradesh.

After a meeting of the NDA leaders at the Prime Minister’s residence on August 16, the alliance managers exuded confidence that the motion would not only be defeated but that the coalition Government would be able to present a picture of unity behind Vajpayee’s policies and leadership. The NDA strategy would also be to expose the rather fragile unity among the Opposition parties behind the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi.

The Congress strategy is aimed at exposing the all-round “failures” of the Government. The party emphasised that the exercise was not a “game of numbers” but intended to convey the people’s anguish and anxiety over the manner in which the Government had been functioning.” The Congress Chief Whip, Priya Ranjan Dasmunshi, has said that the Government had been a total failure and the Congress would point these out during the debate. Issues related to internal security, financial mismanagement, plight of the farmers and farm sector, the foreign policy and defence preparedness would be focused by the Congress and other opposition parties, that have resolved in principle to fight the BJP. The Nationalist Congress Party of Maharashtra strongman Sharad Pawar has also announced its support to the Motion.



Fernandes bid to turn the tables on Congress

The continuing Parliament impasse over the tabling of the Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) report on defence deals has taken a new twist with the Defence Minister George Fernandes declaring that he was willing to table in Parliament not only the CVC report but also all other secret documents including the Henderson Brooks Report.

“I have no objection to any report being made public if Parliamentary rules permit. I’m all for transparency. If Parliamentary rules come in the way of transparency, then they need to be amended,” Fernandes said.

The CVC report has examined about 50 big ticket defence deals valued over Rs 75 crore that were struck between 1989 and 1999. Most of these deals were made when the Congress and United Front were in power. Curiously, the Congress and the Left (a constituent of the United Front government) have made the disclosure of this report an issue, and have blocked the functioning of Parliament to press for it.

The Henderson Brooks Report, which has been kept under wraps by successive governments, narrates in detail the mismanagement of the national security apparatus in 1962 by the government of Jawaharlal Nehru, which led to India’s defeat in the Sino-India War.

Admitting that he was for amendment to the rules, Fernandes argued that under the current Parliamentary rules, withholding the CVC report was justified.

Fernandes disclosed that he had offered to provide information on the CVC report in camera to Congress leader Buta Singh, but he had declined, saying the report be shown to all PAC members.

The new Fernandes move could put the Congress and the other parties in a dilemma which were part of the United Front. The no-confidence motion to be taken up by the Lok Sabha was sparked by the opposition demand for the tabling of the CVC report.



Paving the way for Opposition unity

There was a significant development last week when leaders of various Opposition parties arrived at a broad understanding that their prime political battle was to fight the Bharatiya Janata Party and agreed to continue with bilateral/multilateral meetings to work out the modalities. The understanding was arrived at a dinner meeting hosted by the CPI(M) parliamentary party leader, Somnath Chatterjee, which was attended by a majority of the Opposition leaders including Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, former West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu, and Samajwadi Party chief, Mulayam Singh Yadav.

“All of us have decided that the BJP is a menace and the common enemy. We will fight it till the end,” Chatterjee and Yadav told presspersons in the presence of the other leaders at the end of a two-hour meeting. The next meeting will be hosted by Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Realising the necessity to carry the understanding forward would require more than merely identifying the principal political adversary, the leaders agreed to continue the discussions individually and in groups to fine tune it.

For instance, it is well-known that the Left parties face a challenge from the Congress in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura while the Janata Dal (Secular) has a similar problem in Karnataka. This is to be sorted out among the party leaders, keeping in mind the broader objective of defeating the BJP, CPI(M) politburo member, Sitaram Yechury, disclosed.

Veteran Communist leader Jyoti Basu was candid in stating that in the next round of Assembly elections in Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram, the CPI(M) would contest a few seats. “We would be happy if the Congress extends support to our candidates. Even if they do not do so, we will still support the Congress in places where we are not in contest,” Basu explained. He hoped that all parties would stick to the understanding arrived at the dinner. Basu dismissed the issue of Sonia’s foreign origin by countering: “Tell me, under which article of the Constitution of India can you stop Sonia from becoming the PM of the country ?” CPI leader Bardhan, on his part, tried to provide a clearer picture: “There will be no alliance or front but we have decided to fight the BJP together and unitedly.”

Among the galaxy of other leaders who attended the dinner meeting were the CPI(M) general secretary, Harkishan Singh Surjeet, former Prime Minister Deve Gowda, the Congress Deputy Leader in the Lok Sabha, Shivraj Patil, the SP general secretary, Amar Singh, the RJD Lok Sabha leader, Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, and the CPI(M) Rajya Sabha leader, Nilotpal Basu. Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) stayed away though Opposition leaders insisted that the party remained with them.