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Nepal : Pact on UN monitors to manage arms |
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The fragile peace process in Nepal has been saved for the time being after the Koirala Government and the Maoists jointly invited UN monitors to oversee weapons management, human rights and elections. The two sides jointly handed over a letter to the United Nations on August 9, inviting the world body to monitor arms and armies of the two sides ahead of elections.
Although India has maintained silence on the issue, the deadlock between the Government and Maoists which saw the latter threatening to resume armed operations, was resolved after a meeting between Koirala and Indian Ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shankar Mukherji .
The letter contains a five-point agreement struck after days of often frustrating negotiations. It came on the day a UN mission in New York was expected to deliver a report on Nepal to Secretary General Kofi Annan. The deal was reached between Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, also known as Prachanda, after an hour-long meeting on Aug 9. The duo later put their signatures on the document and handed it over to the acting UN representative in Kathmandu. A Government official said the letter invites the UN to monitor the two sides arms and armies ahead of Constituent Assembly elections. The agreement calls for confinement of both armies which will be monitored by the UN. There will not be any separation of arms from the Maoists People’s Liberation Army. The separation of PLA arms from their fighters had been the main stumbling block in the negotiations, almost leading to the talks collapse. “This is only a first step towards arms management”, said Koirala’s advisor, Chalise. He said the modalities of how the arms will be managed will be worked out later through discussions. Sources say Prachanda has sought the creation of barracks similar to those of the Army where Maoist cadres can be housed and fed. After the Nepalese Army gives a commitment not to take up arms against them, the cadres will lay down arms which will then be tabulated and placed in a godown. There will be three sets of keys to the arms storage, one each with the UN, the Nepalese Government and the Maoists.
The other points in the agreement deal with expanding human rights protection, helping in electoral assistance and monitoring the ceasefire between the two sides.
Sources in Kathmandu say once the UN monitors arrive, possibly within a fortnight, the process of drafting an interim Constitution and preparations for elections to the Constituent Assembly, with the participation of the Maoists can begin.
Differences over future role of monarchy
The real point of contention between Koirala and the Maoists is not the involvement of the UN but the future role, if any, for the monarchy. Koirala has said he envisions a role for ceremonial monarchy, a prospect strongly opposed by the Maoists. Senior Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai has warned the Government that the peace pact between the two could break down over the insistence of the Prime Minister on “some space for the monarchy” in any future dispensation. The threat to pull out of the peace process is the clearest yet by any Maoist leader since King Gyanendra’s dictatorial rule was toppled by street protests.
Bhattarai told a gathering of industrialists in Kathmandu on Aug 7 that calls by government leaders to give “space” to the monarchy would lead to certain failure of the peace process. “We view such statements against the spirit of the people’s movement…We will pull out of peace talks if the parties do not listen to us”, he warned. Bhattarai was referring to a speech by Koirala urging all sides to “give space” to monarchy. He made the comments in front of the same group of industrialists. The Maoists have linked an agreement with overarching political issues, including the wiping out of Nepal’s 237-year-old monarchy in favour of a Republican state. But, Koirala’s Nepali Congress Party is ambivalent over the idea and has proposed deciding the monarchy’s fate through Constituent Assembly election. Prime Minister Koirala personally wants to retain the monarchy in a ceremonial form.
Maoists the ultimate winners
The most fortunate part of developments in the post-April 24, 2006 period in Nepal is the evident peace across the country with fatalities falling steeply and the Government-Maoist peace talks getting underway. However, it is far too early to be celebratory especially in view of Nepal’s own past trajectory of truces. While King Gyanendra gradually becomes history, the ultimate winners in the long-drawn-out course of action will be the Maoists. The current regime in Kathmandu, with a little assistance from other quarters, has allowed the Maoists to dictate terms. Essentially, the Maoists are consolidating upon what they achieved on the ground in a 10-year “people’s war” in which at least 13,000 lives were lost. Only the incurable optimist could doubt that the Maoists would enforce their agenda in Nepal. Among the vital imponderables to the management of peace in the country are the management of the Maoists’ weaponry, the future role of King Gyanendra and the capacity of the Seven-Party Alliance [SPA] to improve civil governance. Responses to these issues currently hang in the balance and depend on the actions of the two sides over the coming weeks. Well versed with the “Red Book”, it is clear that Prachanda and the Maoists have no death wish or intention to commit political hara-kiri. The People’s Liberation Army will not easily relinquish arms to squander away the “rewards” that they have seized through the “barrel of the gun”. Easily discerned is the fact that the Maoists will not smoothly barter away their stronghold on the ground [all the 75 districts are Maoist affected]. Securing peace in Nepal a long haul and it would be all too easy for Prachanda and his comrades to revert the country to an overall war.
Riding the popular wave, the Government has curtailed the King’s powers, including his control over the Army and role in legislation. It has also reduced his budget and security detail. However, differences on whether the monarchy is to remain ceremonial or be abolished continue to affect the talks.
Divergences on drafting an interim constitution, forming an interim Government with Maoist participation, management of arms, etc, are bound to weigh heavy on the peace process. And as long as the Maoists preserve their armed capacity, they will continue to retain a decisive influence on the political process.
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