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Nepal King puts off Delhi visit

	December 27, 2004

King Gyanendra of Nepal cancelled his India visit at the last moment after New

Delhi announced a seven-day State mourning following the death of former Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao. The Nepalese King was slated to pay an eleven-day goodwill visit to India from December 23. Although the King has put off his trip, sources say had he come India would have two messages for him: one, that he should focus on counter-insurgency because Maoist insurgency is a common threat to the security of both India and Nepal; and second, if he tries to take away more powers from the political parties to strengthen his position, he would not have New Delhi’s backing.



Political instability continues in Nepal and Maoist rebels have shown no sign of lowering the level of violence that could create a situation for talks with the Sher Bahadur Deuba Government, appointed by the King about six months ago.

India is likely to express its readiness to extend all possible help to Nepal to deal with the Maoist problem, including more weapons and training to Nepalese military and police personnel as well as intelligence sharing. India is of the view that for greater focus on dealing with the Maoist rebels, Nepal should temporarily suspend its ongoing peacekeeping operations abroad. Around 300 Nepalese Armymen involved in 12 peace keeping missions should be called back. Insurgency in Nepal poses a common threat to both the two countries. Some Indian States, including Bihar and UP, are affected by this problem. In the Rajya Sabha debate during the week, some Members expressed the fear that a nexus between Naxalites in India and Maoists in Nepal would see the problem spilling over into India and affecting the border States and stretching right upto Andhra Pradesh. Maoist insurgency has killed 11,000 people in Nepal since it erupted nearly a decade ago.



The bottomline demand of the Maoists is a new Constituent Assembly through which they want to clip the wings of the King, if not altogether do away with the institution of monarchy. These and other ideas on the monarchy, the Constitution, Parliament and the military situation in the nine-year-long Maoist challenge to the State, emerged from a two-day dialogue called “Restoring peace and stability in Nepal” held earlier this month in Delhi.



In Nepal, major political parties fear that the King intends to seek India’s endorsement for a larger and active role for himself, something the present Constitution does not allow.



Suspicious of the King’s motives, the mainstream political parties are now not averse to having a Constituent Assembly, a demand hitherto raised only by the Maoists. The political parties including the ruling Communist Party of Nepal [UML] boycotted a recent conference organised by the Royal Privy Council. Sources say a few weeks ago, an emissary of the King, former Royal Nepal Army Chief Sachit Shamsher Rana, visited Delhi and met senior officials in South Block to seek New Delhi’s backing for King Gyanendra’s efforts to strengthen the Palace in his fight against the Maoists. But, indications are that Rana was told that India would not support any such move.



Rumour mills are active in Kathmandu to say that the King, having appointed three governments since he assumed powers on October 4, 2002 under Article 127 of the 1990 Constitution, is planning direct Palace rule assisted by a Royal Advisory Council. The existing Royal Council after a two-day meeting recently, recommended a more pro-active role for the King. Dr. Mohammad Mohsin, the King’s nominee in the Government, has also separately suggested this. The justification for the “royal takeover” is that all governments have failed to engage the Maoists in a sustained dialogue and have been unable to hold elections.



King Gyanendra has given Deuba two tasks: holding talks with the Maoists and elections. The Maoists had rejected Deuba’s invitation for talks, saying they will talk to the master, not the servant. This could become another reason for the King’s rule. Political observers say a Palace coup will result in a direct confrontation between the King and the people.



Meanwhile, the Palace’s close association with the Sangh Parivar (RSS family) has also become a matter of great interest to New Delhi. On Dec. 16, the monarch attended a re-enactment of Lord Ram’s wedding at Janakpur and the “Barat” [wedding procession] started from Ayodhya in India which included many hardline Hindu leaders, including Ashok Singhal and Vinay Katiyar. However, though the King attended the function with Vishwa Hindu Parishad leaders, he refused to have a separate meeting with them. Political circles interpreted it as an effort to distance himself from his former allies in India.



For the first time in the capital, former Maoists now overground, Maoist sympathizers, human rights and peace activists, a retired RNA General, politicians, royalists and journalists met Indian experts on Nepal in “seeking the way ahead”. It was recognized that the ball is in the King’s court and there is urgent need for the revival of legitimate authority and sovereignty of the people abrogated on October 4, 2002. The King should convene an all-party conference, invite the Maoists for talks and strive towards a national peace accord. On these issues, there was complete consensus.



There was division, however, on the means for restoring Parliament. The three ways to do this are: [a] by the King through Article 127, [b] by the Supreme Court reinstating Parliament, and [c] through elections. Nepalese participants on Maoist wavelength and some others favoured a dual-purpose election – one that could act as a constituent assembly as well. For others, this latter option was one of last resort. On elections, it was felt that it would neither be free nor fair nor even representative of all people since the Government controls merely 30 per cent of Nepalese territory, including the 75 district headquarters.



Fresh Maoist threat: Blockade of Kathmandu

The Maoist chief meanwhile has warned that the insurgents will sabotage elections if the Government goes ahead with them without meeting their demands to abolish the monarchy. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has given the Maoists time until January 13 to begin talks to end the insurgency. Deuba has vowed to hold elections by April even if the insurgents fail to respond. But, in an interview with the NEPAL SAMACHARPATRA newspaper, rebel leader Prachanda said, “talking about elections without addressing the existing situation will ultimately lead to more bloodshed and is part of a conspiracy to complicate the situation”.



His comments came as schools and businesses closed and most public transport shut down in Kathmandu on Dec. 20-21 in response to a two-day strike called by a group close to the rebels to press the release of jailed members. There was some panic buying in the capital and prices of vegetables went up by about 20 per cent and cooking gas and kerosene vanished from the market. Hundreds of people queued up outside petrol stations in Kathmandu on Dec. 24 fearing fuel shortages after Maoist rebels called for a ban on vehicles entering the city. Not a single cargo vehicle moved into the Kingdom from Raxaul in Bihar through which Nepal gets its petroleum supplies. According to Indian Embassy officials in Kathmandu, about 300 cargo vehicles were stranded on the Indian side. The rebels said the latest ban on goods entering Kathmandu was to press for information about hundreds of their missing comrades and protest against custodial killings of Maoists who, authorities say, died in clashes with soldiers.



The Indian Hotels Company Ltd., owner of the Taj chain of hotels, has dissociated itself from Annapurna, a reputed five-star property in Kathmandu, unilaterally breaking a 25-year contract on security grounds. More than 80 people were killed in the past week as the rebels escalated attacks across the Kingdom, including a string of bombings in the capital. Nine soldiers were killed in an ambush on an army patrol by suspected Maoist rebels at Mudhe near Dolakha district near Kathmandu on Dec. 19. At least 22 Maoist rebels and two soldiers died on Dec. 23 in a gun battle between the guerillas and government troops in Arghakhanchi district in the west of the country.



The security situation is a complete mess. The Maoists enjoy a distinct tactical advantage in the military and psychological context. Their writ runs everywhere, even in the Kathmandu Valley. The intensity of the campaign is reflected by the fact that in the last three years, human and material loss has been three times more than since 1996 when insurgency started. Neither Maoists nor RNA soldiers follow human rights and rules of engagement. The US has threatened to withhold military assistance if the RNA does not improve its human rights record.