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Nawaz Sharif's exile : The Saudi role in his release

	December 18, 2000

The former Pakistan Prime Minister, who was given presidential pardon and exiled to Saudi Arabia under a deal brokered by Riyadh, is spending his first days out of the country in Jeddah before settling down in Riyadh. Although one of the main reasons given for his exile was that he needed Medical check up for his heart ailment, the doctors in Jeddah found him hail and hearty. The release of Mr. Sharif from jail where he was serving a life imprisonment on charges of terrorism and hijacking has drawn a lot of flakes from the opposition and the media. The general criticism is that Gen. Musharraf has by releasing Mr. Sharif, who was facing many corruption charges, has compromised with his own commitment to wipe out corruption and make those who indulged in it, pay for it. Gen. Musharraf has however said his release was in national interest. Political observes in New Delhi say that in addition to international pressure which was building on him for the release of Mr. Sharif, Gen. Musharraf is hoping that with the impending election to local bodies, the first in a series of measures he plans to undertake to return the country to democracy in the next two years, the removal of a political heavyweight like Mr. Sharif would weaken the political forces in the country and he will be able to maneuver a government with which has no political parties in it. Ms. Benazir Bhutto already out of the country to evade corruption charges and now Mr. Sharif also exiled, there is hardly any national personality of great standing which could rally the masses under any common banner. It is worth noting that Gen. Musharraf decided to dispatch Mr. Sharif into exile soon after Sharif's PML and Ms. Benazir Bhutto's PPP had decided to join hands in their common fight against Gen. Musharraf and an umbrella alliance of major political parties, including these two had come into being under the leadership of Nasirullah Khan.



Sharif was removed from power in a bloodless coup in October 1999 after he attempted to fire the head of the armed forces, Gen. Pervez Musharraf. Musharraf has run the country since then with the title of Chief Executive, vowing to create a new political system that would exclude the tradition31 political circles dominated by people like Sharif. After the coup Sharif was convicted on a number of charges, including corruption. Sharif received a life sentence for ahijackinga because he attempted to prevent Musharraf returning while on a flight form Sri Lanka after ordering his dismissal as army chief. A deal between the army and Sharif would change the political landscape. Sharif's party has just joined an alliance with Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples party that has the single goal of ending military rule. Sharif's removal by the army marked the culmination of a decade of political turmoil in Pakistan.



Reports reaching New Delhi say Saudi Arabia, a close friend of Pakistan played a very significant role in the release of Nawaz Sharif. The deal is said to have been struck during the OIC summit in Doha, Qatar, last month when Gen. Musharraf and top Saudi leaders had talks on the sidelines of the summit. However, Mr. Sharif had to heavily pay for his release and agreed to give up many of his properties and industrial units to the government in return for his release.



In a day of swift and unbelievable developments which took everyone by surprise, Mr. Sharif along with 17 of his close family members, including wife Kulsoom, daughter Mariyam, his son-in-law and grandchildren arrived in Jeddah in a Saudi plane on December 10. Also accompanying Mr. Sharif was his younger brother, Shabaz Sharif, a former Chief Minister of Punjab and once his right hand man. Although before leaving, his wife Kulsoom told newsmen that they were not fleeing the country but were being sent into exile, a government statement said Sharif had been granted clemency on his specific request of the family and the readiness expressed by Saudi Arabia to allow the family to take shelter there. Saudi Arabia, considered to be the closest friend of Pakistan had agreed to give shelter to the Sharif family on humanitarian grounds.



Although a government announcement said, Sharif had been given pardon from remaining in jail for the rest of his 21-year jail term, the rest of the punishments awarded by courts, which include fines, forfeiture of property and disqualification from public office would remain in place.



Sources say, Mr. Sharif almost bought his release under a deal in which he lost 80 per cent of his assets, including five factories and three houses. According to a Pakistan government spokesman, the Sharif's surrendered Rs. 300 million apart from five profitable industries including Brother Steel Mills, Ilyas Enterprises, Hudaybia Paper Mill, Hudaybia Engineering Co and Hamza Spinning Mills. They also surrendered three plush houses including their Model Town bungalow, plots and properties and agricultural land in Lahore. The government did not, however, confiscate the Raiwind palace of the Sharif family.

Irrespective of any deal that Pakistan's former Prime Minister might have struck with the military, and irrespective of his sincerity about keeping his end of the bargain, one thing is virtually certain. Once Mr. Sharif begins his exile he will enter a political back-hole with neither sight nor sound of his likely to emanate for a long time. The Saudis prefer that asylum-seekers follow the rules that have been laid down and they do not tolerate people who abuse their hospitality. According to the reports published in the Gulf papers Mr. Sharif has agreed that he will not undertake any political activity or propagate against Pakistan's military government while he is in exile. The Kingdom is not exactly at the other end of the world from Pakistan and it is one place where Pakistanis of different hues and wearing different uniforms visit on a very regular basis. That plus the efficiency of modem communications should theoretically enable Mr. Sharif to run the affairs of the Pakistan Muslim League, and perhaps those of the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy, by remote-control. What makes virtually certain that he will not be able to do so is that his new hosts take a very dim view of such activities.

The release of Mr. Sharif has also raised the possibility of allowing Asif Ali Zardari, the jailed husband of another farmer Prime Minister Ms. Benazir Bhutto, to go into exile in return of the surrender of his properties. Interior Minister Moinuddin Haider has said, the military government could consider such a request if he surrenders his assets. But PPP has rejected the clemency offer and said that since Zardari was not involved in any corruption, there is no question of seeking a shameful pardon from the military regime. Incidentally, Britain has decided to freeze the British assets of Benazir Bhutto and order the police to help Pakistan authorities recover money allegedly stolen by her and her husband.



Meanwhile, the puppet cabinet of Gen. Musharraf at its meetings on December 13, endorsed the decision to pardon Sharif and exile him to Saudi Arabia. A statement latter said, it was agreed that the step would reduce political polarization and bring harmony on the political scene. Musharraf told the cabinet, which was not consulted before the release of Mr. Sharif that the decision had been taken ain the larger national interest while giving due consideration the request by Pakistan's closest and brotherly countrya Saudi Arabia. The release of Mr. Sharif has disappointed many Pakistanis and the announcement has generated widespread criticism among the people who said, the army's anti corruption drive has been badly damaged. How can they pardon a convicted man. This Shows that the government's tall claims about accountability are a fraud a critic said. A lawyer in Lahore High Court has challenged the release of Mr. Sharif, arguing that it was unlawful to release a convict. The Jamat-e-Islami has decided to launch a movement seeking the resignation of Gen. Musharraf for the deal which facilitated the exile of Mr. Nawaz Sharif. The MQM leader Altaf Hussain has demanded that the government release all the details of the secret deal with Nawaz Sharif in the larger interest of the nation. MQM questioned the double standard being practice in Pakistan one for the elite of the society like Nawaz Sharif and the other for the poor masses like the mohajirs.



Pakistan however hopes to considerably gain from three wealthy Gulf states following its decision to grant clemency to Nawaz Sharif. A Pakistani newspaper quoted sources in the government that is expecting a large economic assistance from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE as a kind of quid pro quo.



According to Newspaper report three Gulf states - Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Unite Arab Emirates - have played a key role in the exile patch up between Nawaz Sharif's military regime. aSaudi Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz led a group comprising Qatari ruler Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa and UAE president Shaikh Zayad Bin Sultan Al-Nahyan to use their 'resources and influencea to convince Musharraf that freeing Sharif and his family serves the interest of Pakistan,a the paper reported. President Bill Clinton was also influenced by these countries, it said. Many influential Pakistanis in America, close both to Sharif and the White House, had received signals in Washington in recent weeks, pointing that Sharif family's ordeal has about to finish, the daily quoting sources said.



Qatar Foreign Minister Shaikh Hamad Bin Jasim Jabtr Al-Tani acted as an anchor in this drive by the Arab leadership that ensured Sharif gets proper treatment in prison, his family members remain free to travel abroad and the family's business disputes abroad are resolved. Qatar Foreign minister while meeting Sharif in prison, during his first fortnight in detention, had assured hi that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries would use their own influence and mobilize international pressure to arrange his safe exit from Pakistan. Saudi Arabia made its first request to Musharraf on Sharif in the first week of the military coup and in each of the subsequent high level contacts, Saudis repeatedly urged the military leadership to find a way that could lead to Sharif and his family's freedom a senior official said. The same theme echoed whenever Musharraf and other members of his team got a chance to meet the UAE leadership particularly its ailing president Sheikh Zayed, who had instructed his personal staff to be available for any assistance required by Sharif's family. II quoted unnamed officials as saying that the leadership in Islamabad decided to seriously consider the requests from Arab capitals early last month when its desperate calls for some financial assistance to Arab countries were met with renewed requests for the release of Sharif.



Following Musharraf's assurance to crown prince during OIC summit in Doha that Sharif would soon be released in exchange of a Saudi guarantee that he would not participate in any political activity in foreseeable future, final touches to a deal with Sharif was given by Maj. Gen. Akram of ISI, key army general on political affairs and Maj. Gen. Eshanullah Khan, Director General, Military Intelligence.



Political observers say the former Prime minister, Mr. Nawaz Sharif's departure for Saudi Arabia is expected to have profound implications for the military government as well as the political parties in Islamabad. The Musharraf regime, no doubt, can breathe easy but it would have to answer a number of inconvenient questions regarding its much publicized accountability drive. Bringing to book corrupt politicians was one of the military's major planks when it took over in October 1999. Several high-profile politicians including Mr. Sharif were facing charges under the accountability drive. The Musharraf government ordered the grant of clemency to Mr. Sharif as a decision taken in the best interests of the country and the people. However, there would be few takers for the explanation. The Musharraf government is already at the receiving end from the intelligentsia and the press for its inability to fulfill the expectations it triggered in the wake of Mr. Sharif's ouster in a bloodless coup. And the manner in which it cut a deal with the former Prime Minister is bound to further disillusion the people.



Otherwise, in the short-run at least it has every thing to gain. After the recent bailout package presented by the International Monetary Fund, Mr. Sharif's exile must have been the most pleasing news for the military top brass. The Pakistan people's Party chief and former Prime Minister, Ms. Benazir Bhutto, and the Muttehida Quami Movement leader, Mr. Altaf Hussain, are both in London on exile. With the leaders of the three main parties out of the country, the Musharraf government can afford to chalk out an “exit strategy”. The current scenario opens up several options for the military government. II can consider reviving the suspended national and State assemblies. II can install a civilian government of its choice without worrying about any serious resistance. It is now relatively easy for the government to control the political parties left behind by the leaders in exile. The military can prop up a leader of its choice from within the political parties and pit hi against he established leadership. The possibilities are indeed endless.



At the political level, the journey of Mr. Sharif to Saudi Arabia is indeed a major setback of the political parties. The development could not have come at a more inopportune moment as the parties were trying to make a beginning by floating a new alliance of parties against the military. Only last week, the leaders of Mr. Sharif's PML Ms. Bhutto's PPP posed as comrades in-arms against the Army rule. Over a dozen parties came together under the banner of Alliance for Revival of Democracy (ARD). In a hard-hitting resolution against the Musharraf government, the alliance vowed to take to the streets and pressure the Army to return to the barracks and hold immediate elections under a civilian set-up. All that looks like a dream now. For Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Hussein, absence from the country has not made any difference to their following. But the same cannot be said of Mr. Sharif. The PML suffered a split on the question of aligning with PPP and the rebel faction is more than happy with the latest turn of events.



Nawaz Sharif's mentors were Lieutenant General Jillan Khan, who was director general of he Inter-Services Intelligence (lSI) and General Zia ul-Haq himself. Sharif's father, Mian Mohammed Sharif, had been persecuted and had his properties seized by Bhutto. When General Jillani became governor of Punjab he was directed by Zia to nurture and patronize a new group of politicians linked to the Pakistan Muslim League (PL) to counter Bhutto’s Pakistan People's Party(PPP).Mian Mohammad Sharif told General Jilani that while his younger son Shahbaz was intelligent and was required to manage his family business, he had no objection to his cricket loving elder son Nawazjoining politics. It was primarily because of the patronage of influential elements in the Punjabi military establishment like Generals Zia ul-Haq and Jillani that Nawaz Sharif rose rapidly in Pakistan politics, first as finance minister and then as the chief minister of Punjab.



Nawaz maintained his close links with the military establishment even after Zia's death in 1988. The army was keen to see that Benazir Bhutto and the PPP were not returned to power in the elections held in 1988 after Zia died. The ISI led by General Hamid Gul brought together and supported an alliance of the Muslim League and other parties to challenge the PPP. This alliance called the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad could not succeed.



But Benazir became prime minister only after yielding to several demands made by the army and the ISI. She, like Nawaz Sharif, remained largely dependent on the goodwill and support of the army whenever she assumed power.



Nawaz Sharif was overthrown in 1999 when he dared to challenge the hegemony of the army. But, over the years, Nawaz had built powerful allies in Punjab like Majid Nizami, the virulently anti Indian editor of the Lahore based newspaper Naw-I Waqt. His family also retained close ties with retired army generals like former ISI chief, Lt General Javed Nasir.



While Bhutto maintained close links with countries like Iran and Libya, Nawaz had a powerful patron in the ruling family of Saudi Arabia. He had consulted and sought Saudi support for his agreement with US president Bill Clinton to withdraw his troops from Kargil. He had even permitted Saudi Arabia's defence minister to visit the sensitive Kahuta nuclear weapons complex. The Saudi leadership had quite evidently made it clear to Musharraf that they would not countenance any harm coming to Nawaz Sharif when the latter visited Riyadh soon after assuming power. Pakistan is, after all, heavily dependent on Saudi goodwill and financing. Once it became clear that Nawaz, who is accustomed to an opulent and luxurious lifestyle, was finding the gong tough at the Attock jail, Musharraf was in no position to reject the pleas for his exile to Saudi Arabia where, like everybody else, he will not indulge in political activities.

Political observers say, the departure of Nawaz Sharif is not without its political advantages for the military regime in Pakistan. Musharraf can now go ahead with plans to hold elections to local bodies in the hope that the US and its European allies will welcome these elections. It would also politically neutralize the increasingly popular and troublesome wife of Nawaz Sharif, Begum Kulsoom Nawaz. It would sow a measure of confusion in the ranks of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML). It would also neutralize the newly formed Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy a grouping that includes three of the most influential political parties in Pakistan the PML, the PPP and the Awami National Party (ANP) headed by the Wali Khan family.



There is, however, little doubt that Nawaz Sharif will try and revive his political fortunes at an opportune time by moving from Saudi Arabia to a capital like London, in much the same manner as Benazir Bhutto and the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) leader Altaf Hussain have done. There is presently little that he can do in Pakistan after having been debarred from electoral politics for over two decades. By exiling Sharif through a process of mutual consent, the Pakistani Army has endeavored to ensure that it will remain in the center-stage of the political life of the country. But alienation in Sindh, Balchistan and even the NWFP will increase as the perception grows that the army is an instrument of Punjabi domination.



As of now, political observers say, by seeking an exile, Nawaz Sharif has actually written his political obituary. Mr. Sharif has wrecked not only any chance for the restoration of democracy, but by entering into a deal with Gen. Musharraf, he has also ensured that the army will not go back to the barracks in a hurry. Political opportunism of the worst and as thus snuffed out the possibly of any democratic transition in Pakistan. Mr. Sharif proved to be a weak hearted person who could not bear the difficulties till the coming elections, not very far. He will go down in history as an escapist of the first order. His partymen, who had been suffering all kinds of harassment because of the struggle against army rule at the instance of their jailed leader, must be cursing them leading them in the large. Already reports suggest that there is great resentment among the PML rank and file as Ms. Kulsoom Nawaz consulted nobody in her party before quietly agreeing to fall into the trap laid by Gen. Musharraf. Mrs. Kulsoom had managed to create a modicum of sympathy for her jailed husband but in the end she preferred to forget all about the restoration of democracy and other such things she claimed were central to her struggle. Mr. Sharif evidently thinks that a life in exile is better than a life behind bars, but through this line of reasoning, he has given further proof, even any was needed of his distinct dislike for even trying to make a political comeback. Likewise both Ms. Benazir Bhutto and Mr. Nawabzada Nasrulla Khan, the leaders of the grant alliance forged the only the other day too must be feeling let down by the Sharif family at the critical juncture when they seemed to be succeeding in their struggle for the restoration of democracy in Pakistan. They are wondering what would happen to the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy which they were trying to work out.



With the leaders of three of Pakistan's largest parties in exile, the third been Mujahid leader Altaf Hussain, the country's democratic culture has been downgraded from superficial to farcical. Gen. Musharraf has never hidden his contempt for Pakistan's civilian politicians, a hatred that has grown in office as he uncovered the extent of the rot in Pakistan's economy and society. He has also personal reasons to wish Mr. Sharif ill, believing the then Prime Minister sought to kill him in a plane accident in October last year. Now, without any credible opposition there is noting better a military ruler could ask for. Some reports say that Gen. Musharraf is eliminating his political rivals in order to build up his own political base for a transition to civilian control.



Musharraf's ambitions for Presidency



Political circles in Islamabad are agog with reports that Gen. Musharraf is likely to introduce a Presidential form of government to be headed by himself. According to Pakistani newspapers, a legal draft is being given final touches to make necessary amendments in the constitution. There are indications that Gen. Musharraf is likely to make some important announcement in the next 24 hours. He is likely to address the nation on the state-controlled television and radio to announce his decision. Rafiq Tarar is expected to request the government to relieve him of his responsibilities on medical grounds, the report said. An unscheduled meeting of the Army top brass on December 14 night also reportedly discussed the issue. The national and provincial assemblies, which were suspended by the military regime, may not be restored, stated the report. Soon after becoming President, General Musharraf would appoint a caretaker government. The names of IIIahi Baksh Soomra and Wasim Saijad are doing the rounds for acting Prime Minister. Ijaz ul Haq, son of former President General Ziaul-Haq, Fakhir Imam and Mian Azhar may also be included in the cabinet. The speaker of he suspended national assembly, Elahi Baksh Soomro, has also called a meeting of members of the Pakistan Muslim League of exiled former premier Nawaz Sharif.



The speculation about revival of the suspended assemblies or the switchover to the Presidential form of Government has been life since last Sunday after the former Prime minister, Mr. Nawaz Sharif and his families were exiled to Saudi Arabia. There have been contradictory signals from the military government in the last few days about its plans on any new political setup. While the Interior Minister, Lt. Gen. (retd) Moinuddin Haider, has said revival of the assemblies is an option, the chief spokesman of the military, Mr. Gen. Rashid Qureshi, has categorically ruled out such a possibility.



Military changes



Meanwhile, Gen. Musharraf has once again promoted three Major Generals to the rank of Lt. Generals, superseding 7 senior Major Generals. Last month Gen Musharraf had appointed Air Marshal Musharraf Mir Amir as the new Chief of Air Staff overlooking five senior officers. The promotions to senior posts overlooking the seniority of many others is seen by political observers as a significant move to put in place his strong loyalists so as to obviate any threat to his position if he opts to become the president of the country