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Narendra Modi overcomes anti-incumbency: hard lesson for the Congress, BJP’s ‘B’ team cannot beat BJ

	December 24, 2007

B.I. Saini



The BJP has scored a hat trick in Gujarat winning the Assembly elections with a reduced majority, but much better than expected. Narendra Modi has beaten anti-incumbency and the

stigma of the 2002 communal riots, which happened during his chief-ministership, and also ridden over the rebellion by an influential section of his BJP.



With the BJP winning over 110 seats in the 182-member Assembly, Narendra Modi is set to don the mantle of the Chief Minister for another five-year term.



The Congress tried its best to stop the BJP march in the election, with party president Sonia Gandhi campaigning extensively. The party hoped to take advantage of the anti-incumbency factor as

the BJP had been ruling the state for 12 years, out of which Narendra Modi had been at the helm for about six years.



The Congress tried to keep away from the secular vs. communal angle during the election campaign as it did not want the election to be polarised on communal lines. This is what had

happened in 2002 when the Narendra Modi-led BJP had won with 127 seats as against the 51 secured by the Congress, in an election where Narendra Modi came out with his communal card almost

openly and succeeded in dividing voters on communal lines. The Congress did not want a repeat of this situation, and that is perhaps why it chose not to attack Narendra Modi too stridently for his role

or lack of action during the 2002 riots. The only exception was the “merchants of death” remark by party president Sonia Gandhi during the election campaign which was played down by the Congress,

but played up by the BJP.



There are several lessons to be learnt by the Congress for what has emerged in the Gujarat Assembly elections. By not attacking the Narendra Modi-led BJP government’s track record, both on

the communal angle and the development agenda front forcefully enough, the Congress perhaps created an impression among the voters that it is just a ‘B’ team of the BJP in the state. The party

could not effectively project that its policies and plans are completely different from those of the BJP in both the political and the economic spheres.



The Gujarat Assembly election results are going to have impact at the national level also. The Congress was hoping that a win in Gujarat will help the United Progressive Alliance Government at

he Centre to move forward more effectively on the nuclear deal with the United States, over-riding opposition from the Left parties. With the party losing the battle at the hustings in Gujarat, its allies in

the UPA would be wary about emergence of any situation which leads to fall of the Government and a mid-term poll. The CPI(M) has already made it clear that it was holding its horses till the Gujarat

elections and would now press the Manmohan Singh government to formally scrap the nuclear deal. The pressure from both he Left parties and the UPA allies such as the DMK and the Rashtriya Janata

Dal (RJD), is likely to increase now that the Congress has not been able to turn the tables on the BJP in Gujarat.



Narendra Modi’s victory in Gujarat will also impact the BJP at the national level. The party will have to carefully weigh its options. If the party goes back to hardline Hindutva politics, which trend

might be encouraged by the Gujarat results, it may end up losing the support of its allies in the National Democratic Alliance, such as the Janata Dal United. But with a seasoned campaigner like

former Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani at the helm of affairs, the BJP may just eat the cake and have it too.