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Mukherjee’s Islamabad visit: India, Pakistan agree to fight terrorism

	May 26, 2008

India and Pakistan have reiterated their commitment to safeguard the Line of Control ceasefire which was repeatedly violated by Pakistan forces this month, and reaffirmed their resolve to fight terrorism. A joint statement issued at the end of External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s two-day visit to Islamabad and talks with his Pakistani counterpart, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, on May 21 said, they have decided to take the peace process forward.



The meeting between the two Foreign Ministers was significant as it constituted resumption of high-level political contacts with the newly elected Government of Pakistan. Though the first ministerial-level meeting after the new Gilani Government came to power was low on substance, it clearly signalled resumption of the peace process with the two sides agreeing to start the fifth round of the composite dialogue process and to resurrect the anti-terror mechanism. Not only did they review the fourth round of the composite dialogue, but also discussed how the peace process could be carried forward. New Delhi raised concern about terrorism, the handing over of Dawood Ibrahim, an international terrorist, and the release of all Indian prisoners, including Sarabjit Singh.



Dr. Manmhoan Singh to visit Pakistan

Mukherjee’s engagements in Islamabad ended with a joint Press conference. It was announced at the end of the talks on May 21 that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would visit Islamabad later this year. The issue of terrorism figured extensively in talks but the joint statement merely reiterated the earlier pledges on terrorism and “reaffirmed” that the two countries would cooperate to safeguard the ceasefire. The two countries signed a consular agreement on access to prisoners. Each will provide on a regular basis an updated and comprehensive list of prisoners to the other. They also decided that a meeting of the working group on cross-LoC confidence-building measures [CBMs] would be convened within two months. As expected, the two sides resurrected the joint anti-terror mechanism and announced that the next meeting of the mechanism would be held next month. The two countries also announced that their Foreign Secretaries of the two countries would launch the fifth round of the composite dialogue in New Delhi in July. The two sides discussed the Kashmir, Siachen and Sir Creek issues and expressed willingness to push forward confidence building measures, including increasing the frequency of the Muzaffarabad-Srinagar and the Rawalkot-Poonch bus services to a weekly basis and finalization of modalities for intra-Kashmir trade and truck service as early as possible. On trade and commerce, the two countries agreed to discuss further steps for facilitating trade and addressing the trade imbalance. They also agreed that railway officials of the two countries would meet in June for resolving all technical issues coming in the way of increase in freight movement. The two countries have been discussing the creation of a tourist visa category. The Foreign Ministers agreed that the visa agreement would be given final touches soon. Discussions also revolved on possibilities of cross-border investment aside from proposals for improving trade, including facilities for export of cement to India .



Mukherjee, who went to Islamabad in the backdrop of repeated ceasefire violations by Pakistani troops and the death of an Indian soldier in the latest such incident, also called on President Musharraf, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and the PPP and PML[N] leaders, Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif. A day before, the Foreign Secretaries of the two countries, Shiv Shanker Menon and Salman Bashir, met to discuss the issues on the table of the Foreign Ministers’ meeting. Signalling an important policy shift, Pakistan agreed with India to push for an improvement in bilateral economic relations simultaneously with efforts to resolve all outstanding issues, including Kashmir.



However, even as the ministerial talks ended on a “positive note”, a formal protest detailing the ceasefire violation that took place on May 20, was handed over to the Pakistani Army at the Roshni border post along the LoC in the Mendhar sector of Poonch district.



In the joint statement issued at the end of the Mukherjee-Qureshi meeting, both countries reaffirmed that they would not permit terrorism to impede the peace process. The two sides “reiterated their commitment to fight terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and re-emphasized the need for effective steps for the complete elimination of this menace,” the statement said. The statement said, the two Ministers reaffirmed the importance of the ceasefire in place since November 2003 and the commitment of both sides to safeguard it. They agreed to refrain from hostile propaganda.



At the joint Press conference, Mukherjee described the talks as “very frank, very candid and very friendly” adding that he found a strong willingness and desire on the Pakistani side to move towards full normalization of relations. The Ministers said, in their review of the fourth round of the composite dialogue process, they concurred that significant progress had been made on several fronts. They particularly singled out Sir Creek as one major issue on which much progress had been made. On the issue of Siachen, Mukherjee said, more talks were needed while Qureshi said, Pakistan had put forward a “package of proposals” on the dispute. On terrorism, Qureshi said, they agreed that terrorism is a common menace and should be fought jointly. He said, the Joint Anti-Terror Mechanism [JATM] would meet again soon so that terror incidents ‘do not affect our ties”. He referred to the Jaipur bomb blasts and condemned them.



The Joint Anti-Terror Mechanism was agreed to by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Musharraf when they met in Havana on the sidelines of the NAM summit.



Qureshi said it was important for the dialogue to make progress on issues that had been lagging behind such as the “core issue” of Kashmir.



In what is being seen as a setback, Qureshi returned to the UN resolutions for the solution of the Kashmir issue, a hurdle that India and Pakistan had crossed after Musharraf declared them to be useless. Speaking at the joint Press conference, Qureshi said, the Kashmir issue has to be resolved in accordance with the UN resolutions and “wishes” of the Kashmiris. He said although Pakistan was ready to look at “innovative ideas – the ideas that can facilitate the comprehensive dialogue,” “we do not have our minds shut”. He parried questions on whether the new civilian Government supports the four-point formula advanced by Musharraf to resolve the Kashmir issue. Earlier, the Gilani Government described Musharraf’s formula as “half-baked”. Political observers say, this will certainly spell a step back in the J&K understanding that had been building up. “Kashmir-related CBMs have benefited and should continue but there has to be focus on the core issue and the two countries should move ahead to resolve it”, Qureshi insisted. Responding to Qureshi’s statement, Mukherjee said, India stood ready to resolve all issues with Pakistan, including Kashmir. He, however, underlined that the two countries should improve their bilateral relations even if some outstanding issues remain unresolved.



The BJP has condemned Mukherjee’s silence on Pakistan raising the UN resolutions on Kashmir which implies a plebiscite in the region. BJP spokesman Ravi Shankar Prasad expressed his party’s “deep concern” at the fact that Pakistan raised the issue of UN resolutions on Kashmir and Mukherjee remained silent on the matter.



Both leaders agreed that the Kashmir-specific confidence building measures had contributed to improving the condition of the people there. Mukherjee said, Pakistan should take leaf from China’s example of how unresolved issues between India and China had not stood in the way of surging bilateral trade. “We shall have to expand the base of economic cooperation, increase bilateral trade and encourage investment in India and Pakistan by industrialists and investors of both countries”, Mukherjee said at the joint Press conference.



At the Foreign Secretaries meeting, terrorism and Kashmir dominated the discussions. India, however, did not raise the Jaipur bomb blasts issue and the alleged involvement of the ISI. Sir Creek and Siachen were also taken up and described as “resoluble problems” while Kashmir was aimed to be resolved within a “foreseeable future.” The case of Sarabjit Singh was not discussed alone but India took up the case of all Indian prisoners in Pakistani jails.



The essence of Mukherjee’s visit, sources say, was to get a better idea of how Pakistan’s new Government intends to go forward with the relations. Till now President Musharraf has singlehandedly crafted his country’s India policy since he grabbed power in 1999. PML[N] chief and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been quoted as saying, “We have no problem and we will move forward and both sides feel similarly”. Zardari went a step further, suggesting setting up of joint economic zones on the border for mutual benefit and not objecting to the presence of security forces in Jammu and Kashmir if the Army was replaced by para-military forces. Zardari, who was among those to call on Mukherjee in Islamabad, suggested that any cuts in the Indian Army’s deployment in the State could be compensated by India through deployment of more paramilitary forces and police which would be more humane and help in addressing the 60-year-old wounds of the Kashmir issue. In a wide-ranging interview on the eve of Mukherjee’s visit, the PPP chief said, “We would appreciate the de-escalation of Indian troops in Kashmir to bring normalcy in Kashmir. The Army, wherever it is, by its nature is crude – whether it is your Army or any other Army”, he said. He further suggested that his model for Indo-Pak relations is to create economic zones along the border, use Pakistan’s coal reserves in Thar to generate power that could be exported to India and even acquire gas from friendly Muslim countries that could be supplied to India. Zardari said, Pakistan could act as a force multiplier for India’s economy through increased cooperation in key sectors like energy.





Militants’ warning on ties with India: Rise in infiltration

The day the Foreign Ministers agreed on a slew of new CBMs, a top militant leader warned the Pakistan Government against softening its stance on the Kashmir issue. The militants threatened strikes in Pakistani cities if the Government showed any sign of “retreat”. At a Press conference in Sialkot, the chief of the United Jehad Council, Syed Salahuddin, said on May 19, his organisation would wage “war in Islamabad and Lahore” if the “Kashmir liberation movement suffered due to the Pakistani rulers’ cowardice, retreat and pro-India policies.”



It was in this backdrop that the Indian side during the talks asked the new Pakistani Government to take concrete steps to stop cross-border terrorism and to honour the pledge not to allow anti-India terrorist groups to operate on its soil. Official sources say the Indian Government is looking for concrete action by Pakistan for ending cross-border terrorism and infiltration which have witnessed an increase recently. The infiltration level had gone down for a while but it has witnessed a rise again.



New Delhi has made it clear that terror incidents will not stop the peace and dialogue process with Islamabad. Citing the Jaipur serial blasts regarding which there is no clarity yet as to who was responsible, India says, it understands that the terror strike was carried out to derail the Indo-Pak peace process. “Such elements, whoever they are, should not be given a chance to succeed in their designs by stopping the dialogue process whenever a terror incident takes place”, the sources said.



This apart, the Indian Government has been encouraged by developments in Pakistan last year. All of last year, Pakistan has been preoccupied with its own political issues. But, significantly, India has not been a factor in the political turmoil that shook Pakistan last year. And this is a success in itself, said Government sources. Ready to pick up the threads of talks from where these were left during the Musharraf regime, New Delhi is looking for the new dispensation’s ideas on Kashmir and other issues. New Delhi notes that the relations between the two countries have witnessed a lot of improvement during the last four years when India was dealing with the Musharraf regime. The cross-LoC initiatives particularly have witnessed a lot of forward movement and India is expecting a further push by the new Government in Islamabad.





Pak firing kills Indian soldier on talks eve; New Delhi protests

On the eve of the Indo-Pak talks, there was another ceasefire violation with unprovoked firing from the Pakistani side killing an Indian soldier deployed at a post in the Poonch sector on May 19. It was the latest of a series of assaults which could lead to the unravelling of the ceasefire which went into place in 2003. At a flag meeting, India lodged a strong protest.



Kranti Post, an Indian forward position near Salhotri village, was hit with rockets and grenades just after 8 a.m., the second ceasefire violation along the LoC in less than a week. Jawashwar Lami Chamme, who was serving with 28 Gorkha Rifles, died when he was hit by shrapnel during the estimated 20-minute assault. Salhotri had seen a build-up of tension since late April when terrorists began to use Pakistani military positions as staging posts for infiltration attempts. Indian troops interdicted a group on the Tarkundi Gali Pass on May 16 and killed one terrorist.



The Indian Army lodged a strong protest with its Pakistani counterpart during a flag meeting held at the Roshni Post on May 21. The protest note handed over to the Pakistani officers contained details of the 20-minute firing on the Dhip post in Mendhar.



Earlier this month, Pakistani troops opened fire with machine guns and mortar on an Indian position in Tangdhar. Several shells fell close to the post in the course of the May 13 night-time assault. No casualties were, however, reported. Pakistan Army-led border police, the Rangers, are also thought to have provided logistics support for the May 9 infiltration attempt which involved cutting through border fencing near Samba. Two terrorists who crossed the fencing were shot dead two days later at Regal village. Four civilians – among them a news photographer, Ashok Sodhi – were killed in the fighting along with two soldiers.



The Border Security Force says, three earlier attempts to penetrate the border fencing near Jammu were made this year, starting with a Feb 22 incident near Akwal where two infiltrators were shot dead. On March 3, a terrorist was killed while attempting to cross the fencing near the Chak Rangwari post, and another attempt was made near Chak Abdullian on April 30. In an effort to improve border security, the BSF now intends realigning fencing along the border in Jammu while the Army is enhancing counter-infiltration measures along the LoC. The BSF plans to deploy additional one thousand guards on the international border with Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir. Also, counter-infiltration mechanism would be augmented and surveillance gadgetry upgraded.



There are reports that nearly 3600 terrorists are amassed in PoK waiting to cross the border. Indian security forces fear a surge in infiltration and violence levels in the coming days, with militants keen to target both the Amarnath yatra beginning from June 18 and State Assembly elections slated for October-November. While intelligence agencies estimate, there are already around 1200 militants active in Jammu and Kashmir, hundreds more are being trained in over 40 terrorist training camps still active in Pakistan and Pak-occupied Kashmir. At least 100 new faces have been spotted in various parts of the Valley in the past few weeks. Security agencies have also recorded new call signs on the airwaves. Some old militants who were living in PoK are also back in the Valley.



Pakistan’s posture along the Line of Control such as providing covering fire to enable militants to infiltrate seem to be linked to the lifting of restraints imposed on the Kashmiri jehadi groups by President Musharraf’s regime – curbs that saw violence decline each year since 2002. In a March videophone address to a Lashkar rally in Pak-occupied Kashmir’s capital, Muzaffarabad, the organisation chief, Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, announced that restrictions placed on the terrorist group’s operations had been lifted. Soon after, Indian intelligence reported a build-up of Lashkar-e-Taiba cadres at infiltration staging points along the LoC. A new state-of-the-art wireless communications station was set up by the banned group at Kel town, just across the LoC from Lolab while a training centre at Balakote was revived. A new basic training facility was also set up at Gujaranwala in Punjab province of Pakistan.



Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar was released from house arrest and allowed to parade with armed cadres in Bahawalpur town – a defiant show of strength by one of the world’s most notorious Islamist terrorists.



Pakistan’s ISI Directorate also resumed funding for the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen which was shut off under international pressure in 2006. Last month, jihadist groups paraded in Muzaffarabad under the leadership of Hizb ul Mujahideen chief Mohammed Yusuf Shah, in their first public show of strength since 2001. Shah, who also chairs the United Jihad Council, announced that he would “continue jihad in Kashmir until the region is liberated from Indian occupation.” In the backdrop of these developments, officials in New Delhi fear, both aggressive polemics and hostilities along the LoC could escalate as Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections - a make-or-break test for Islamist secessionists – approach.



Patil draws parallel between Sarabjit and Afzal Guru

Even as Pranab Mukherjee was engaged in talks with Pakistani leaders on one of the topics to seek leniency for Sarabjit Singh, an Indian national on a death row on terrorism charges, at home, Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil unleashed a fresh controversy. Speaking in his hometown, Latur in Maharashtra, on May 21, he drew a parallel between Sarabjit Singh’s plea for clemency in Pakistan and a similar plea by Afzal Guru, convicted and sentenced to death sentence by the Supreme Court of India for his role in the December 13, 2001 terrorist attack on Parliament which killed seven security personnel. His execution, however, is on hold with the Government yet to revert to the President on a clemency petition.



Speaking to newsmen in Latur, Patil said, “People are saying don’t hang Indian in Pakistan, Sarabjit, and then are demanding hanging of a Pakistani, Afzal Guru…This is not fair”. “You are starting to say that those people should not be hanged and here, you are demanding a hanging”, he went on to say. His remarks mean that he would want people to believe that it is unfair to seek clemency for Sarabjit while demanding that Mohammed Afzal be hanged to death.



The report was not denied by the Home Ministry spokesman who said that Patil’s remarks should be seen in their entirety and should not be “misinterpreted”. The Opposition quickly latched on to Patil’s remarks, with the BJP describing them as “one of the most irresponsible comments by a Minister”. The justification he had offered on not carrying out the sentence awarded to Guru was completely unacceptable, Ravi Shankar Prasad said while strongly criticizing Patil.



Patil’s critics say not only does his comparison imply that Sarabjit is guilty of a terrorist act, it will also be read as a defence of Guru. What Patil forgets to note that Guru is a Kashmiri, an Indian national, unlike Sarabjit, an Indian national in Pakistan’s custody. India’s judicial system has the right to hand out a sentence to its own citizen. But, Patil’s remarks tend to suggest a trade-off with Pakistan under which Sarabjit can be granted clemency for a similar pardon from the death sentence of Afzal Guru, though both are Indian nationals. Patil as Home Minister of the country should be aware that the Government of India’s case seeking clemency for Sarabjit Singh is based on the premise that he has been wrongly tried for a crime he never committed on account of mistaken identity. On the other hand, Mohammed Afzal, to quote the Supreme Court’s judgement sentencing him to death, “was party to the conspiracy and had a nexus with the terrorists” who attacked Parliament House on Dec 13, 2001. To equate the two cases amounts to suggesting that Sarabjit, an innocent victim of a flawed trial, is guilty of the charges framed against him, thus making it all the more difficult for the Government of India to save him from the gallows.



India’s dealing with shaky coalition – Assessment of Pranab visit

Political observers say, before leaving New Delhi, Pranab Mukherjee and his Foreign Secretary Menon must have asked themselves at least one basic question on the peace process: Can the new political dispensation in Pakistan uphold the core assumptions on the bilateral engagement that India had worked out with Musharraf? As remarked by columnist C. Raja Mohan, asking this question has become necessary after three recent events. The first was a major violent attempt by militants to infiltrate into Jammu and Kashmir. The second was renewed military tension on the Kashmir frontier, in violation of the existing ceasefire arrangement. The third was the shock of the brutal bombings in Jaipur. On its part, India has signalled that it will not let these events derail the peace process and remains open for decisive forward movement. But, it needs two to tango. There are good reasons to wonder if the current government in Pakistan has the capacity to sustain the necessary environment for the peace process and the political will to take the next steps.



The rather productive peace process with Pakistan since 2004 has rested on a grand bargain. Islamabad agreed to stop all support to cross-border terrorism in India. New Delhi in turn promised to negotiate purposefully in resolving the Kashmir question. And in the interim the two sides agreed to build mutual trust through a variety of confidence-building measures. This bargain appeared to work reasonably well, at least until recently. A ceasefire all along the Indo-Pak frontier has held since the end of 2003. Trade between the two countries has picked up a new momentum. People-to-people contact has improved considerably. India and Pakistan have also pressed ahead with substantive dialogue on resolving the Kashmir question. These sensitive negotiations between the special envoys of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Musharraf have been held in secret. It is widely known, however, that the two sides had made considerable progress in defining the framework for a mutually acceptable settlement.



However, the installation of a new Gilani Government was accompanied by breach of the ceasefire accord on the LoC, renewed infiltrations with the backing of Pak troops, the release of jihadis such as Maulana Azhar Masood from house arrest, a deal with the Pakistani Taliban in its restive Waziristan and the statements by new Pakistani leaders such as repudiating Musharraf’s four-point Kashmir peace plan as “half-baked” and resurrecting the moth-eaten UN Security Council resolutions as the basis for the solution of the Kashmir dispute topped with the Jaipur blasts.





With these developments in view, Menon and Mukherjee must wonder about the current dynamics in Pakistan, especially in relation to the war on terror and the new rhetoric on Kashmir. Is Islamabad going soft on terrorism in the name of a political engagement with the militant groups? Is Pakistan buying domestic peace with terrorist groups by allowing them free hand across the borders? These questions animate not just India but also Afghanistan which faces cross-border attacks from the Taliban based in Pakistan.



On Kashmir, first Asif Ali Zardari, the PPP chief, the lynchpin of the governing political coalition, argued that the new Government was more interested in promoting trade and other cooperation with India than in resolving the Kashmir question. Once the inevitable negative reaction to his statements emerged in Pakistan, Zardari quickly backed off. But, Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani has swung to the other extreme. He has restored the old rhetoric of resolving the Kashmir question in accordance with the UN resolutions. What New Delhi still does not know is whether Gilani is unaware of the negotiations with India initiated during Musharraf’s rule or he is simply signalling a change in policy.



As India and Pakistan started the historic negotiations on Kashmir in 2005, they had agreed to dispense with the past populist rhetoric and concentrate on finding a pragmatic way forward. To his credit, Musharraf did enforce a verbal discipline on Pakistan’s public statements on Kashmir and a measure of control over cross-border terrorism. All indications are that the Gillani Government seems unable to maintain these restraints.