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Mid-term polls in the offing |
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B.I. Saini
It is increasingly becoming clear that both the Congress and the Left parties are utilising the setting up of the UPA-Left panel on the Indo-US nuclear deal to push their differing viewpoints and to position themselves better in a mid-term poll. In the normal course, setting up of the UPA-Left panel should have led to both sides pushing the ‘pause’ button on mutual recriminations on the nuclear deal and a host of other issues like the state of the economy, rise in prices and the agrarian crisis in large parts of the country. But on the other hand, the setting up of the panel has been followed by both the Congress and the Left parties stepping up their rhetoric.
The Left parties which took out two marches from Kolkata and Chennai to Vishakhapatnam to protest against the nuclear deal and the five-nation joint naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal have now openly said that it is time for the Congress to choose between the nuclear deal and what they call “the strategic alliance with the United States and the National Common Minimum Programme. CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat, articulating the Left viewpoint in Vishakhapatnam on Sept. 8, said that the time had come for the UPA leadership to decide whether it would abide by the Common Minimum Programme or what he called “the commitment to the United States.”
Karat’s speech in Vishakhapatnam makes it clear that the Left is not opposing merely the India-US nuclear deal, but basically what they think to be the start of a strategic alliance with the United States. Karat said there is no mention of a strategic partnership with the United States in the Common Minimum Programme. He said if the issue had been put in the CMP, the Left parties would never have supported the Congress-led UPA to help it to assume power at the Centre.
While the Left parties have been attacking the very orientation of the Manmohan Singh Government’s foreign policy, the Congress also has been rubbing in how the Left attitude is making comrades in China and the military headed Government in Pakistan happy. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, on his part, without naming the Left, has been saying that far too much of the political discourse is obsessed with the past and ignorant about the future. Speaking at a function in New Delhi on Sept. 7, he said the country should not dither because of what he called some ghosts in our mind, a reference perhaps to the anti-US obsession of the Left.
While Congress President Sonia Gandhi has not been very forthcoming about the controversy over the nuclear deal, except to say that the deal is in the national interest, others in the Congress have been rubbishing the Left allegations that the UPA Government is endangering national sovereignty over the nuclear deal. Taking the battle to the Left bastion of West Bengal, Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal accused the Left parties of keeping the people in the dark by not highlighting facts about the nuclear deal. He said the Left parties should come out with the real reasons behind their anti-US stand which has led to their opposing the 123 agreement. He challenged the Left parties to inform the people which provision of the 123 agreement will affect national sovereignty.
Simultaneously, the Congress has been trying to persuade constituents of the NDA and the UNPA to tone down their criticism of the nuclear deal. The effort has met with some success with the Shiv Sena coming out in support of the nuclear deal with the United States. In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress has announced what she called “de-linking” from the NDA and has started the process of `rediscovering secularism and reaching out to Muslim brethren.’ While she says that she is not in alliance with any other party at present, it is apparent that in case of a mid-term poll, the Trinamul Congress and the Congress will combine in their effort to give a bloody nose to the Left parties in West Bengal. There are also reports that the Prime Minister sought the Samajwadi Party’s backing for the nuclear deal at a meeting with its general secretary Amar Singh in New Delhi last week. Amar Singh confirmed to mediapersons that Dr. Manmohan Singh broached the issue with him when they met on September 5. The Samajwadi Party, of course, turned down the request as it has been in the forefront of the UNPA’s attack on the nuclear deal. But the episode shows that the Congress is leaving no stone unturned to build up support for the nuclear deal, even approaching parties and elements, who were till the other day anathema to the party.
Opinion polls conducted by various media organizations have brought happy tidings for the Congress. The latest in the series, an opinion poll conducted in 23 states by TV channel CNN-IBN and the Indian Express indicates that the UPA may end up with a tally of 267 seats, just short of the half-way mark in the 545 member Lok Sabha in case of a snap poll. What is more, the Congress on its own may get over 200 seats for the first time since in over 15 years. The NDA and the Left parties may end up with a far fewer number of seats than what they got in the last elections held in 2004.
Politics is the art of the possible, with impossible things becoming possible, provided there is a spirit of give-and-take. At present, the Congress and the Left parties, apart from their decision to set up the panel to go into the Left’s objections to the nuclear deal, are not displaying much of this spirit. Both sides appear to be preparing for snap elections, may be early next year.
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