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Mayawati’s historic win : Dailt struggle comes of age |
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B.I. Saini
Mayawati has stormed back to power in Uttar Pradesh, and with that, her party, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has become the first dalit-based organisation or political outfit to gain power in a major state like Uttar Pradesh on its own. Becoming Chief Minister of the country’s most populous and politically crucial state for the fourth time, Mayawati has outwitted all her political rivals including outgoing Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party and Kalyan Singh of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has lost a lot of ground since the days of the Ram Temple movement when it was ruling the state.
There are several factors for BSP’s outright win in Uttar Pradesh, which could not be foreseen either by political experts or by exit and opinion polls, none of which gave the party a clear majority. One major reason appears to be Mayawati reworking social engineering by seeking and getting the support of all castes and communities, not merely the scheduled castes to which she belongs. In a way, she tried to replicate the old Congress formula of building a multi-caste and multi-religion support base. Mayawati’s action in giving a large number of party tickets to Brahmins and Muslims appears to have played a significant role in the party’s victory. Another factor which stares one in the face is the disillusionment of the Uttar Pradesh people with the perceived lawlessness prevailing in the state during the Mulayam Singh Yadav regime. Mayawati could successfully sell the line that only she could put down lawless elements with a firm hand and restore order, and not the BJP and the Congress, which were also trying to oust the Samajwadi Party from power.
Mayawati’s massive victory, combined with the worst drubbing received by the BJP since the 1990s, shows that the saffron party’s Hindutva plank does not work any longer. It should now be apparent to the BJP that after the demolition of the Babri Masjid in December 1992, the ploy to mobilise Hindu voters in the name of construction of the Ram temple at Ayodhya is yielding less and less returns. The development agenda sought to be pushed by the Congress, especially its young leader Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during their election speeches, has also not paid much dividend. Perhaps the voters gave more priority to the task of ending the Samajwadi Party’s misrule, which they perceived only Mayawati could do effectively.
The Uttar Pradesh election results will have impact not only in the state but also at the national level.
The BJP’s dream of the Uttar Pradesh elections being the precursor to its regaining power at the Centre has been shattered. There appears to be no end to the BJP’s long winter out of power at the Centre, despite the hopes aroused by the party’s victory in the Uttrakhand Assembly elections and its coming to power in Punjab in alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal.
With just two years of the five-year term of the present Lok Sabha remaining, the Congress, the leading light of the United Progressive Alliance coalition ruling at the Centre, will have to come up with fresh ideas other than just banking upon the Nehru-Gandhi family’s appeal and charisma to get the support of the voters. The party will have to do some quick thinking to pull the rabbit out of the hat, in a way, if it is to retain power in two-year time. Perhaps the UPA Government needs to adopt a more ‘political’ approach to sorting out problems faced by the people and national issues rather than just harping on development and the growth rate of the economy. Reinvented and refurbished “India shining”, approach (of the National Democratic Alliance which lost power in 2004) will not work.
The Uttar Pradesh election results have also buried deep the idea of forming a third front or third alternative. The two main Left parties, the CPI(M) and the CPI, which fought as part of different alliances in the state, could not get even a single member elected to the State Assembly. The elections have brought home that the Left parties are virtually non-existent in several parts of the country other than their strongholds of West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. V.P. Singh’s Jan Morcha and other smaller parties have also been wiped out in the state.
After coming up on the top in Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati’s BSP would be setting its sights on playing a more crucial rule in other states and more importantly at the Centre. This was clear from the BSP chief’s statement at the meeting of the party’s newly elected legislators in Lucknow on Saturday, May 12. In her words, “UP jeeta, Ab Delhi ke liye tayyar ho jao” (we have won UP, now get ready for Delhi). The immediate impact may be seen during the Presidential Election to be held by July this year. The UPA and the Left are a little short of a clear majority in the electoral college which elects the President. There may be some hard bargaining on who is to be the next President, not only among the UPA constituents and the Left parties, but also the other parties like the BSP.
Dalits and other backward communities will be emboldened by the Uttar Pradesh elections and see them as charting the strategy for their empowerment in other states and at the national level. Uttar Pradesh has brought home to them that they can be the leaders of ruling alliances and not merely camp followers.
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