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Maximum restraint : Pak's conditional response to Ramzan ceasefire

	December 04, 2000

Pakistan in its first firm response to Prime Minister Vajpayee's initiative of ceasefire by Indian troops during the current holy month of Ramzan, has ordered its security forces to observe "maximum alert". It has asked India to now take the next step to agree to holding tripartite talks on Kashmir involving India, Pakistan and the All-Party Hurriyat Conference Pakistan had been under intense pressure from countries like the United States not to opportunity offered by India to make a suitable response which may help resume the stalled dialogue on Kashmir.



Significantly, readiness to positively respond to Mr. Vajpayee's Ramzan ceasefire initiative comes . I amid claims by a man said to be mediating between the two countries and the Kashmiri leaders with the

US blessings, the US-based Pakistani national, Mansoor Ijaz, that Gen. Musharraf and Prime Minister Vajpayee may hold a summit meeting after Ramzan if the ceasefire does not collapse.



The Pakistan Foreign Secretary, Inamul Haq, read out to newsmen on Dec. 2, a three-page statement containing Pakistan's response to the Indian initiative. He said, Pakistan wants both India and Pakistan to utilise the Ramzan period [ending in the last week of December] to prepare the ground for a process of tripartite negotiations. He said, Pakistani response was meant to test "India's sincerity" and emphasised that there was no basic shift in Pakistan's policy on Kashmir.



Later. Mr. Haq invited the Indian High Commissioner in Islamabad, Mr. Vijay Nambiar, to the Foreign Office and conveyed to him the points made in the press conference. Mr. Nambiar is expected to come to New Delhi for consultations on the ceasefire and the response from various quarters there, including the Pakistan Government.



The main component of the formula unveiled by him that the two countries should utilise the Ramzan period to prepare the ground for a process of tripartite negotiations. During this period, India should allow an APHC delegation to travel to Pakistan for consultations even as New Delhi holds similar talks with another APHC team. This, Pakistan said, could pave the way for a three-way dialogue. "We want the tripartite dialogue to begin immediately after Ramzan".

The Pakistani statement was also full of many other ifs and buts. On the ceasefire along the Line of Control, it wants India to allow the United Nations Military Observers Group for India and Pakistan [UNMOGIP] to effectively monitor the situation. It wants India to suspend its military operations and announce a permanent end to the "policy of repression and violence, reduction of Indian forces, release of all detainees and respect the fundamental rights of Kashmiris."



Pak-based militant groups have, however, warned militant outfits against talks with India. The Jaish-e-Mohammed, a group formed by Maulana Masood Azhar - has warned all political parties including the Hurriyat Conference and militant outfits in the Kashmir Valley, of serious consequences if they agreed to talks with the Indian Government.



India is carefully assessing the declared intent of Pakistan to observe military restraint on the LoC in response to the unilateral cease fire put in place by India. The Government of India has been fully aware of the growing internal and international pressure on Pakistan to respond positively to the ceasefire initiative in Kashmir. Pakistan could have delayed this only at the cost of further international isolation and loss of leverage on the ground in Kashmir. However, since Pakistan has couched its offer to respect the ceasefire on the LoC in a number of other formulations entirely unacceptable to India, Government sources say there is no question of ever accepting either the "tripartite" talks that Pakistan wants or give an expanded role to the UN in monitoring the ceasefire.



Political observers in New Delhi, therefore, say, although for the first time since the ceasefire announcement, Pakistan has acknowledged the initiative as a small opening for resolution of the Kashmir dispute and resumption of dialogue stalled since May, 1999, it does not reflect any change in Pakistan's Kashmir policy. India has already rejected tripartite talks. It is worth recalling that when the Hizbul Mujahideen called a unilateral ceasefire and India took the initiative to invite it for talks, Pakistan sabotaged the initiative after the first round of talks in Srinagar and prevailed upon the militant group to insist on Pakistan's involvement in the talks. And when India rejected the demand, Hizbul Mujahideen withdrew the ceasefire and resumed its terrorist operations. The latest clarification on the Indian stand for tripartite dialogue has come from the Home Minister, Mr. L.K. Advani, who during a visit to the Wagah border check post between India and Pakistan near Amritsar on Nov. 26, Mr. Advani said there was no scope for such a three-way meeting. "Negotiating peace with Kashmiri militants is a different issue, having bilateral talks with Pakistan is another", he said.



There are at least three elements to the conducive atmosphere in Kashmir that India has emphasised since the Kargil confrontation last year. Besides lowering the military temperature on the LoC, India wants to see a sharp reduction in the infiltration of militants and an end to Pakistani support for cross border terrorism. Pakistan's response deals with only one of these three elements - quiet on the LoC. India is aware of Pakistan's political difficulty in formally acknowledging its role on infiltration and cross-border terrorism. The proof of Pakistani good intentions can only be judged by the trend-line of infiltration and terrorist violence in the coming days. Political observers say, if Pakistan does convey a basic shift in its approach on cross-border terrorism, its offer could open some space for diplomats to finesse the differences between the two countries on the negotiating framework and confidence-building measures to de-escalate the situation.



Prospects of Musharraf-Vajpayee meeting



If a man engaged in behind the curtains shuttle diplomacy between India, Pakistan and the Kashmiri leadership, is to be believed, if the Ramzan ceasefire does not collapse, the Pakistan military ruler, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, may hold a summit meting with Prime Minister Vajpayee. This has been stated in an interview to Gulf News by Mansoor Ijaz, a US-based Pakistani businessman, who is said to be mediating between the three sides with the blessings of the United States Administration.



Mr. Ijaz said it is possible to devise a formula whereby Gen. Musharraf could signal an end to support for cross-border militancy without undermining Pakistan's known policies and positions. The face-saving formula that Mr. Ijaz has devised consisted of a unilateral decision by Pakistan to support the Kashmir ceasefire and a call to all militant groups to observe it. Mr. Ijaz who disclosed that he had made this proposal to Gen. Musharraf and was expecting a response, said, it would be "glaringly easy" for Gen. Musharraf to support a cease fire since winter snow would soon restrict the scope for border crossings.



According to him, initially, Indo-Pak talks could be bifurcated from the talks between the Government and the militants, but India would not ultimately be able to avoid tripartite format because militant groups would insist on it. Mr. Ijaz, however, did take cognizance of the central dilemma India faced in evaluating the idea of talking to Pakistan. Convinced that Gen. Musharraf was personally interested in a peaceful settlement of the dispute, he said in the ultimate analysis, the military ruler would be able to overcome internal resistance because a peaceful settlement is what the Kashmiris wanted.



Advani's plea: Inderfurth's support



Home Minister Advani from the Wagha border post on Indo-Pak border gave out a call to Gen. Musharraf to make a positive response to Mr. Vajpayee's peace initiative. Inaugurating the Swaran Jayanti Dwar on the Wagha border on Nov. 26, Mr. Advani told a gathering where people from Pakistan across the border also listened to him with rapt attention, that Prime Minister Vajpayee had taken the historic move in initiating the dialogue between the two countries by making a trip to Lahore. But. Pakistan had different ideas and it resulted in Kargil conflict. Now, Mr. Vajpayee has made another move, and he hoped Pakistan would not let this opportunity go waste.



Talking to newsmen later, he said, there were several ways in which Pakistan could make a positive contribution: Islamabad can tell the world it will destroy the militant training camps in its territory; it can assure that its army will not indulge in pushing mercenaries into Indian territory. Once such a response is made, he said, the two Governments can sit together to solve the Kashmir problem. He, however, ruled out any scope of tripartite talks involving India, Pakistan and the militant groups. "Negotiating peace with Kashmiri militants is a different issue, he said, having bilateral talks with Pakistan is another.



The Clinton Administration views Mr. Vajpayee's Ramzan ceasefire initiative in Kashmir as a welcome development reserving a response from the Kashmiri militant groups. The US Assistant Secretary of State in the outgoing Clinton Administration, Karl Inderfurth, who paid a farewell trip to the region, said in an interview that after several "false starts" in recent months, the Prime Minister's new initiative could be the step that leads to a new opening in addressing the Kashmir dispute." He said, it has been a consistent view of the US that dialogue is needed between India and Pakistan but it is also important for Pakistan to take important steps to demonstrate its seriousness in seeing that dialogue is resumed. This would include "steps to see that the level of violence is reduced in Kashmir", he said. He said, as a result of the Kargil episode, "a demonstration by Pakistan of its sincerity that it wants to resume the dialogue and to go back to the Lahore process would be an appropriate step to take."



A three-day "Pen for peace" conference held in Pakistani port city of Karachi on Nov. 26 ended with participants pledging to work for peace and harmony between India and Pakistan and asking the two countries to eschew mutual antipathy towards each other. The conference, which was attended by a number of writers, poets, artists, academics and journalists from all over the country, called on India and Pakistan to eschew their mutual antipathy, give up the unrewarding "war focussed policies" and adopt the tool of "peaceful negotiations" to resolve their mutual disputes, including the Kashmir dispute." A declaration adopted at the end of the conference said, the disputes between India and Pakistan can never be resolved through war and the only alternative is "peaceful negotiations.'" "Jehads, arms race, wars and propaganda campaigns won't solve the Kashmir tangle as it is clear from past half a century's experience that only be resolved with people's participation".