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Maharashtra Polls : Victory for Congress-NCP alliance |
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The Congress-Nationalist Congress Party alliance has finally emerged victorious in the Maharashtra Assembly elections. Though the alliance failed to win an absolute majority in the Assembly, it is all set to form a new Government in the State, bagging 141 seats of the total 288 seats. But the question of who will head the coalition ministry in the state still hangs in the balance. Before the polls, the understanding was that the Congress which had put up the larger number of candidates of the alliance partners will have its leader as the Chief Minister. But the results as they poured out, made the NCP the largest party in the alliance as well as the State Assembly. It won 71 seats compared to 69 of the Congress and one of the RPI (Athawale Group). NCP leader Sharad Pawar who was earlier prepared to have a Congressman as Chief Minister is now saying that the matter needs to be discussed among the alliance partners.
The Congress-NCP victory in Maharashtra is a big set back for the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance which was hoping to regain power, riding on the anti-incumbency factor and also the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) acting as spoilers for the Congress. But the anti-incumbency factor does not appear to have worked to the extent hoped for by the BJP especially. Also both the BSP and the SP drew a blank in the state, indicating that the voters were shrewd enough to realise that if they voted for these two parties it will only weaken the secular combination of the Congress and the NCP. Ultimately, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance ended with just 117 seats, 62 going to the Shiv Sena and 54 to the BJP. One seat went to STBP, a local outfit.
Another significant factor is that other parties and Independents were not able to make such a big dent in the elections, as was envisaged by the opinion polls and exit polls. The opinion and exit polls had predicted that other smaller parties and Independents would get anything from 50 to 70 seats in the Assembly, enabling them to play a decisive role in Government formation. But it has emerged that only 30 candidates belonging to other parties and Independents could make it to the state Assembly. Out of these, at least five, three belonging to the CPI(M) and two to the Peasants and Workers’ Party (I) may be expected to extend at least outside support to a Congress-NCP Government. All in all, forming a new Government will not be a big problem for the Congress and the NCP provided they are able to settle the ticklish Chief Ministership issue.
Boost for Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh
Within the Congress as well as in the country, Sonia Gandhi’s position will get further consolidated after the Maharashtra verdict. The party appears to have retained the trust and confidence of the minorities and the scheduled castes, especially to the extent it has blunted the challenge of the Samajwadi Party for the Muslim vote and of the Bahujan Samaj Party for the Dalit (depressed classes) vote. The Prime Minister’s authority also stands further reinforced within and outside the Government.
Setback for BJP
The Maharashtra Assembly election result has emphasised that the national mood remains hostile to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its National Democratic Alliance partners. The voter refused to provide any kind of comfort to the BJP despite the fact that the Congress-NCP coalition Government was considered one of the most non-performing administrations in the entire country. The voter refused to endorse the politics of religious frenzy that the BJP-Shiv Sena tried to instigate. Uma Bharti’s Tiranga Yatra (National Flag March) and Sushma Swaraj raising the Savarkar issue failed to cut any ice with the electorate. The larger political message is clear : the Congress-led Government at the Centre needs to be allowed the political and parliamentary space to work out its mandate. It is a clear warning to the opposition parties to end their obstructionist approach.
Tougher times ahead
BJP leaders appear to be realising that there is no silver lining for the party even on the distant horizon. During the next two years, Assembly elections will be held in Bihar, Jharkhand, Haryana, and later in West Bengal and Kerala. In none of these states, the BJP can see a victory coming its way. The party would now have to deal with the hard task of making its presence felt without any electoral victory in the foreseeable future. It will have to prepare for a long haul in the opposition. It would be interesting to see in this light what approach the party would adopt. Observers say it may be futile for the BJP to again take up the Hindutva (Hindu activism) plank or the Ayodhya temple issue. Rightly or wrongly, the Congress appears to have succeeded in identifying itself with the poor; but the BJP with its India Shining campaign of the Lok Sabha elections is being seen by voters as a party of the affluent.
BSP-SP fail to make headyway
The Maharashtra voter has also made it clear that professional “destabilisers” will have to go on an extended leave. Both the BSP and the Samajwadi Party put up a large number of candidates in the State, hoping not for victory, but for spoiling the chances of the Congress-NCP alliance. The voter has shown that he can see through the game and will not be a party to the destablising game. According to one newspaper, the Samajwadi Party and its leaders in particular, had been acting as if they could bring the Manmohan Singh Government down at a time of their choosing. The party’s failure to get even one seat in the state has made it abundantly clear that such tactics will not work.
Byelections outcome
Along with the Maharashtra Assembly elections, byelections were also held for three Lok Sabha seats and 13 Assembly seats in various states. Of the two Lok Sabha seats of which the results have been announced, one has gone to the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Laloo Prasad Yadav, an ally of the Congress, while the other, Bidar (in Karnataka), has been wrested by the Congress from the BJP.
In the Assembly by elections, the Samajwadi Party-RLD combine, has secured eight seats in Uttar Pradesh, thus retaining its primacy in the state. In other constituencies, different parties have mostly retained their positions, giving up one seat here and gaining another somewhere else. With the Congress getting the Bidar seat, its strength in the Lok Sabha, the Lower House of Parliament, has gone up to 146 in the 543 seat-House.
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