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Maharashtra elections : Test of UPA’s popularity |
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The Maharashtra Assembly elections to be held on October 13 are important. The Congress-NCP-led Democratic Front and the Opposition-Shiv Sena-BJP alliance-in the state. They are also significant nationally. Observers believe that the Assembly poll outcome in the state will decide the popularity of the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s three-month old government. Since the state Assemblypoll is the first direct political confrontation between the Congress and the BJP after the formation of the Manmohan Singh government, a defeat for the ruling front could prompt the NDA to project it as a vote against UPA performance. Realizing this, the Congress has been consciously trying to underplay the significance of the polls and avoid making the campaign look like a do-or-die battle.
The voting pattern in the May 2004 parliamentary election shows a slight edge for the BJP-Shiv Sena combine and the strong anti-incumbency factor against the State Government puts the Congress-NCP alliance at a clear disadvantage but even a small swings can make or mar political fortunes in the state. If the May 2004 Lok Sabha election results are any indication, the Sena-BJP led in 141 Assembly segments as against the Congress-NCP’s 139 despite the anti-incumbency against the Vajpayee Government. Most surprisingly, the saffron alliance swept Vidarbha, the traditional Congress stronghold, which sends 74 legislators to the Assembly. If the Congress has to retain power, it will have to regain Vidarbha.
What keeps the Congress-NCP combine hopeful is the sheer unpredictability of Maharashtra voters. In the 1999 Lok Sabha election, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine had an impressive tally of 28 seats as against 16 of the Congress-NCP, but in the Assembly polls the trend reversed with the saffron alliance winning only 125 seats in the House of 288. Thus analysts believe that one cannot draw any conclusion on the basis of 2004 Lok Sabha election results.
The basis of the Congress-NCP argument that a powerful campaign may see it through lies in the statistical reality; 70 seats had been decided in 1999 Assembly election by around 5,000 votes. Of these, 32 seats were won or lost by a margin of less than 2,000 votes and observers feel that the final outcome of the October election again will hardly see a difference greater than 20-30 seats between the two sides.
Observers say the Congress realizes that its present government in the state headed by Chief Minister Shinde has not been so popular and probably this is the reason why the party has been underplaying his leadership.
Earlier the party had plans to encash Shinde’s Dalit (low caste) identity to impress that vote bank and oust the Mayawati led Bahujan Samaj Party(BSP). However, the fact that the BSP increased its vote share in the last Lok Sabha elections proved that it didn’t help the party. Moreover, Shinde is not accepted among the dominant Marathas. Thus the Congress would avoid projecting anyone ‘formally’ as its Chief Ministerial candidate saying the issue would be settled after the results.
The issue of the separate statehood for Vidarbha would undoubtedly play a major role in the elections. Though the Congress was initially not in favour of making any more direct commitment on the issue of the separate statehood for Vidarbha than promising to set up a second state reorganisation commission to look into the demand, there is now a rethinking to make a bit more politically correct statement on this issue. Pawar wants the alliance to be more open on the Vidarbha issue as a tactic since the weakened Congress base combined with the NCP traditional poor hold in the region could give the BJP-Sena an edge there.
In the last Assembly election, while the Congress-NCP combine won 133 seats (75+58), the Sena-BJP alliance trailed by mere eight seats, getting 125 (69+56) where as the magic figure to form the Government was 145. The Congress-NCP finally formed the Government with the help of smaller groups and Independents.
The ruling Congress and its alliance partner NCP have been struggling for days on end to wrap up their seat-sharing negotiations. In comparison, the opposition Sena-BJP alliance is better prepared. They have already finalised their seat-sharing arrangement. While the Sena will contest 171 seats, the BJP will fight for the remaining 117 seats.
An opinion poll conducted by the NDTV-Indian Express suggests that a neck and neck race is expected between ruling the Congress-NCP alliance and the Shiv Sena-BJP combine in Vidarbha, Marathawada and North Maharashtra regions. The poll carried out in 150 seats in the three regions covering 100 constituencies and 29,763 voters showed the Congress-NCP getting 75 seats while the saffron alliance bagging 73 seats.
In Marathawada, Congress-NCP is shown as having gained getting 26 of the 48 Assembly seats with the BJP-Sena alliance securing only 22 but the latter is projected to do very well in North Maharashtra getting 24 of the 36 Assembly seats. In Vidarbha, Congress-NCP is predicted to forge ahead comfortably bagging 38 of the 66 seats while the Sena-BJP is projected to get 27.
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