India News Online » News Analysis » Indian Politics » 

Maharashtra Assembly polls : UPA unity, fragile and weak

	September 27, 2004

The run-up to Maharashtra Assembly elections has exposed the fragile and opportunistic nature of United Progressive Alliance unity. Instead of forming a secular front against the communal and hardcore Shiv Sena-BJP combine, the Leftists and other partners of the UPA government have decided to contest the Maharashtra polls on their own. This, observers say, will give an edge to their rival parties in the state — the Shiv Sena and the BJP.

The Left parties have announced their decision not to be a part of the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party led Democratic Front(DF) and said they would contest 33 Assembly seats on their own in the polls. The Left parties are dissatisfied as they are unhappy with the Congress’ decision to allot just four seats to them in the Maharashtra assembly poll. Earlier the CPI had bargained for five seats and the CPI(M) also wanted five.

Now the CPI and the CPI (M) leaders have announced that their parties would contest 17 and 16 Assembly seats respectively in the state.

However, the CPI and CPI(M) leaders are open to a fresh dialogue with the Congress. Although, the Congress-NCP combine is said to be ready to announce its joint manifesto soon, the Left leaders felt that to contain division of secular votes a formidable pre-poll secular alliance could still be forged.

D. Raja said that to stop the BJP-Shiv Sena from gathering votes, there was a need for all secular forces to close ranks. “The CPI and the CPI(M) have already announced their respective list of candidates for the coming polls but we still think that division of secular votes could be stopped if the Congress-NCP combine joins us,” Raja said.

Union Chemicals and Fertilisers Minister Ram Vilas Paswan has also decided not to be a part of the ruling Democratic Front and said that his Lok Janshakti Party in Maharashtra would form an alliance with the Anna Dange-led Lokrajya Party and declared a combined list of 79 candidates. While the LJP will contest 55 seats, the Lokrajya Party has fielded candidates in 24 constituencies. “The Congress had offered us three Assembly seats in the state, but the party wants to contest more seats to strengthen itself,” LJP president said.

Though Railway Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) told the Congress that his party was not interested in contesting the Maharashtra polls, and that it would instead like to campaign for the Congress, it has fielded its candidates in five constituencies.

Another UPA partner, the Samajwadi Party (SP), is also determined to go for its share of anti-BJP-Shiv Sena votes at the cost of its ally at the Centre. In fact, in fielding his party’s candidate from Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has shifted the focus of his ongoing UP-centric feud with the Congress to Mumbai.

Athawale, the Dalit (low caste) leader who heads one faction of the Republican Party of India (RPI), is so unhappy with the Congress that he has decided to walk out of the UPA. “I was offered only four seats. It was humiliating. I have decided to pull out of the UPA and go it alone in the polls,” he said. Athawale is no more a major player in Maharashtra politics. But his election-eve rebellion will certainly affect the Congress bid to project the Assembly polls as a straight contest between two alliances committed to opposite political ideologies.

The failure of the Congress-NCP combine to bring together on one platform their “secular” partners from the UPA is glaring. Only four months ago, most of them had closed rank to thwart the “looming danger” to India’s secular profile. However, for the Maharashtra polls, `secularism’ is no more the bond that keeps the UPA partners together at the Centre.

Analysts believe that the Congress-NCP leadership is not at all worried or concerned about the collapse of the “grand alliance” it visualised to avoid a split in the `secular’ vote. There are compulsions behind their decision not to do so. The Democratic Front has been facing another problem- the presence of rebels in a large number of constituencies. Senior leaders from both the parties have been assigned the job of forcing the disgruntled party leaders out of contest. NCP chief Sharad Pawar is himself in touch with the rebels from his party and the Congress high command has asked Digvijay Singh to assist Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde in this damage-control mission.

Senior leaders explained that the failure to cobble up a “grand alliance” won’t hurt so much as the presence of strong rebels. “Smaller parties hardly have much presence in Maharashtra. Almost 90 per cent of candidates fielded by them forfeit their deposits.

The Congress-NCP leaders are aware that the number of rebels would have swelled had even smaller parties been accommodated in the alliance. “We wanted to avoid that situation. To spare another 30-40 seats for keeping the Left, the RPI, Mulayam Singh and Ram Vilas Paswan would have thrown us out of the race right away,” said a Congress leader from Maharashtra.



A tough contest

The Congress is also alive to the eventuality of the winners from these smaller groups coming into its fold after the election as none of them can join the BJP-Sena ranks. Yet, analysts believe that the October Assembly polls may well turn out to be one of the most keenly fought in the history of Maharashtra.

And, just a few months ago, it was simpler: numbers favoured the Congress-NCP. Politics favoured the Sena-BJP. The Lok Sabha election results brought some changes to the numbers. While the Sena-BJP led in 141 Assembly segments, the Congress-NCP-Republican Party of India (Athawle) led in 139. In the remaining eight, the CPI (M) led in two, the Peasants and Workers Party of India (PWPI) in two, Kadu (a Congress rebel) in three, and Arun Gawli in one. That makes up the 288 seats to be contested in the Assembly polls in October.

However, the overall Congress-NCP lead of around 1.8 per cent exists because of western Maharashtra. In which region they are so dominant, it is hard to add any more seats. And there is this question: has anything happened since May to endear the ruling alliance to voters?

The Sena-BJP’s strategy is basic and coherent. Western Maharashtra, where the rival alliance outscored it by over 12 per cent in May, is not a priority. Nor is it banking on gaining Dalit votes. Just on the Bahujan Samaj Party damaging the Congress even worse than in the Lok Sabha polls. In Marathwada and Vidarbha, the BJP-Sena alliance believes - quite reasonably - that the crisis and bad governance favours it.

The Congress-NCP alliance can still win according to analysts, but that depends on several complex factors.

One, the choice and announcement of candidates will, as always in this State, have a profound fallout.

Two, the old solid lead of the Congress-NCP is gone. The gap between the two fronts is narrow. But managing the rebels might help. And with good rainfall and sowing in the zones of electoral loss, some mending is possible, even if quite hard to do. The Congress and its allies believe the good monsoon might reduce the intensity of anti-incumbent feeling. Also, the unattractive nature of the alternative could help.

Three, a deft handling of alliances, observers say, might help them scrape through. The winning margins of the Sena-BJP were very small in many places. If the Congress-NCP can draw and hold together the diverse RPI factions, some retrieval of the Dalit vote could happen. That means getting the Athawale, Ambedkar, Gavai and Kawade groups together. And pulling back rebels from the BSP. It is difficult but not impossible. Striking a deal with the CPI (M) could also help the Congress-NCP consolidate in up to eight seats now out of its grasp.

Four, after turning down the Prime Minister’s post, Sonia Gandhi’s prestige shot up. Her campaigning there can make a big difference to her party.

Lastly, with much in their favour, the BJP-Sena have not been able to fully ride the huge rural discontent. The tiranga yatra (national flag march) of former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Uma Bharati has bombed and State-level BJP leaders viewed it as a harmful distraction. And the party’s inner struggles for power, between former Union Minister Pramod Mahajan and Uma Bharati and others, helps deepen this divide. Meanwhile, the BJP-Sena’s urban focus could also prove a drawback.