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Lok Sabha polls : NDA loses popularity, but still ahead

	April 19, 2004

Campaigning in 139 parliamentary constituencies spread over 15 states going to the polls in the first phase on April 20 drew to a close 48 hours before the D-day. Electioneering ended in all the 26 Lok Sabha constituencies of Gujarat, 24 out of 48 in Maharashtra, 21 out of 42 in Andhra Pradesh, 15 out of 28 in Karnataka, 11 each in Bihar, Orissa and Chhattisgarh, six each in Assam and Jharkhand, two each in Jammu and Kashmir and Meghalaya and one each in Manipur, Mizoram, Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu.

The first phase of polls will also cover Assembly elections in 147 of the 294 constituencies in Andhra Pradesh, 120 out of 224 seats in Karnataka and 77 out of 147 seats in Orissa.

Elections for the 14th Lok Sabha will be held in five phases, on April 20, April 22, April 26, May 5 and May 10. Counting of votes will be taken up on May 13.

As the polling days near, there is tension in the NDA camp since the initial hype over the alliance prospects has petered out, though it still remains much ahead of the Congress. The “feel good” factor generated by the governance of the Vajpayee regime and the peace process with Pakistan have gone to the BJP-led alliance advantage.

On the other hand, the Congress is short of charismatic leaders and is totally dependent on the voter-drawing powers of its president Sonia Gandhi and to an extent, on her children, Rahul and Priyanka. After being snubbed by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Congress has been blowing hot and cold towards the Samajwadi Party (SP). While virtually charging the SP with working hand in glove with the BJP, the Congress lacks the guts to pull out from the Mulayam Singh Yadav government. The Congress has generally played safe with the selection of its candidates. But its choice for the Lok Sabha seats in Delhi has drawn in some flak as there are at least three nominees whose names had been linked to the anti-Sikh riots in 1984 following the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.



Opinion poll findings

The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is estimated to get 269-277 seats with the Congress-led combine in the second place at 184-190 and the Left Front and others getting 30-32 and 56-58 seats respectively in the coming Lok Sabha polls, according to Zee News opinion poll. The BJP alone is expected to get 185-199 seats with 25 per cent votes while the Congress on its own may win 154-158 seats, but in voting percentage Congress is behind the BJP with a close 22 per cent. The opinion poll, commissioned by Zee News to Taleem Research Foundation, covered over 13,000 voters in 65 Lok Sabha constituencies spread over 23 states and two Union Territories using a circular random sampling technique. The respondents surveyed covered both genders of all ages, economic divisions, educational levels, both urban and rural areas, general, SC and ST categories.

As regards Sonia Gandhi’s son, Rahul Gandhi’s entry into politics, an overwhelming 40 per cent are convinced that this can only bode well for the Congress. Fourteen per cent disagreed that he can bring about a change of fortunes for the party while 46 per cent were unable to arrive at a conclusion. Compared to him his sister Priyanka is more likely to make a better leader if 16 per cent are to be believed. But Rahul is barely a step behind with 15 per cent favouring his leadership potential. There is still very little for BJP to “feel good” about, with only 28 per cent of the population familiar with the term while a whooping 72 per cent remain oblivious to the campaign.

While the first opinion poll jointly commissioned by The Indian Express and New Delhi Television (NDTV) indicated that the momentum in the Lok Sabha elections was in favour of the BJP, the latest in the series suggests a movement away from the NDA in each of the nine states surveyed. These states together account for 253 seats of which 140 are going to the polls in the first phase on Tuesday. In some of these states, the swing away from the NDA is quite small, while in others, it is significant enough to make a difference to the NDA’s tally.

Since the first poll, the NDA has lost some seats to the Congress alliance in a number of states, particularly in Bihar, where the Laloo Yadav-Ram Vilas Paswan alliance seems to be working. There have also been smaller losses from the NDA to the Congress alliance in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra.



BJP suffers severe blow to its image

But things are turning sour for the BJP too. The party’s senior leaders are enmeshed in controversies and the opposition is taking full advantage of the situation. The stampede at a function in Lucknow, from where the Prime Minister is contesting, over free sari distribution on the birthday of a senior BJP leader, Lalji Tandon, Vajpayee’s appeal to Congress supported Independent candidate, Ram Jethmalani, not to contest against him and the Supreme Court’s indictment of the Modi administration in the Best Bakery massacre in Gujarat have dealt hard blows to the BJP campaign.

Observers say the Lucknow stampede in which hundreds of women were caught in a rush to grab free saris, will undoubtedly affect the party’s image and might bring down the victory margin of Vajpayee. At least twenty one persons, mostly women and children, were killed and many injured in the stampede.

The incident has raised many issues. The distribution of saris prior to the elections violates the Election Commission’s Model Code of Conduct. As per the code, “all parties and candidates shall avoid scrupulously all activities which are corrupt practices and offences under the election law, such as bribing of voters, intimidation of voters... .” The opposition parties like the Congress, the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal (Secular) sent a joint memorandum to the Election Commission saying that the free distribution of saris was intended to “induce the voters and making use of the occasion” of the birthday of Tandon was a “blatant violation” of the code.

The Election Commission of India came down heavily on BJP leader Lalji Tandon blaming him for the Lucknow stampede and ordering the state administration to register a case against him for bribing voters. The Commission also sought transfer of the Lucknow District Magistrate and city Superintendent of Police. At the same time, a showcause notice was being served on the BJP leadership in New Delhi seeking reasons why action shouldn’t be taken against the party for violating the Model Code of Conduct.

The Prime Minister himself has dismissed suggestions that the death of over 20 persons in the Lucknow stampede had affected his image. “There is nothing wrong in distributing saris. Saris are distributed during every birthday of Tandon. Something bad happened this time and it was unfortunate. It is a great tragedy; we are mourning it, but elections cannot wait.”

While there are many issues that are involved in the event, one thing that has surprised everybody is why the Samajwadi Party Government in Uttar Pradesh is not taking necessary steps in this direction? There are doubts over the direction in which the SP leadership is moving since the Chief Minister has tried to play down the tragedy. Is the party interested in some kind of post-election alliance if the BJP-led NDA returns to power at the Centre ? Congress spokesman Kapil Sibal said that signals emanating from the SP camp were suggesting that Yadav was no more with the secular forces.



Jethmalani controversy

The decision on Independent candidate Ram Jethmalani to withdraw from the contest against Prime Minister Vajpayee in Lucknow has raised a minor controversy.

Vajpayee in his appeal to Jethmalani had cited 40 years of friendship between them and asked him to reconsider his decision to contest against him in Lucknow. In his statement the Prime Minister had also referred to Jethmalani’s commitment to political and social causes, including Jammu and Kashmir and Indo-Pak relations, and that his advice in these matters will be valued. The Prime Minister’s unexpected step gave the opposition an opportunity to criticise the BJP and Vajpayee.

The Congress took strong exception to Vajpayee’s appeal to Jethmalani to withdraw as the Opposition candidate from Lucknow. It said the Prime Minister was scared and didn’t act in the true democratic spirit. Congress leader Kapil Sibal said “being an old friend” could not be the reason for not contesting election in a democracy. “That’s in fact not the reason. Vajpayee is scared of what Jethmalani could say during the campaign. He knows everything about the BJP and the Prime Minister and if push comes to shove, he would reveal all,” Sibal said.



Impact of Gujarat case

In another severe indictment of the BJP Government headed by Narendra Modi in Gujarat, the Supreme Court has ordered a fresh investigation and re-trial in the Best Bakery case in which all the 21 accused were acquitted by the High Court. Criticising the State Government for its tardy investigation resulting in miscarriage of justice to the victims, the apex Court also ordered the shifting of the case - pertaining to one of the post-Godhra incidents in which 14 persons were burnt alive, nine of them belonging to the family of the key witness, Zaheera Sheikh - for trial in Maharashtra.

A Bench, consisting of Justice Doraiswamy Raju and Justice Arijit Pasayat, described the acquittal of the 21 accused as nothing but a travesty of truth and a fraud on the legal process and said the resultant decisions of the lower courts called for interference. “It is no acquittal in the eye of the law and no sanctity or credibility can be attached and given to the so-called findings,” it said.

Expressing its shock and anguish, the Bench said: “When the ghastly killings take place in the land of Mahatma Gandhi, it raises a very pertinent question as to whether some people have become so bankrupt in their ideology that they have deviated from everything which was so dear to him. When a large number of people, including innocent and helpless children and women, are killed in a diabolic manner, it brings disgrace to the entire society.”

The Bench directed that the re-investigation of the case be carried out by the Gujarat police under the supervision of the Director-General of Police. It ordered that the trial proceed on a day-to-day basis under a new Public Prosecutor to be appointed by the Gujarat Government in consultation with the victims and the witnesses.

The Bench noted that the approach of the High Court suffered from serious infirmities and that its conclusions were lopsided and lacked a judicious application of mind. In this case, “the justice delivery system was allowed to be taken for a ride, abused, misused and mutilated by subterfuge. The investigation appears to be perfunctory and anything but impartial, without any definite object of finding out the truth and bringing to book those who were responsible for the crime.”

On the role of the Modi Government, the Bench said: “It leaves much to be desired. One gets a feeling that there was really no seriousness in the State’s approach in assailing the trial court’s judgment. Whether the accused persons were really assailants or not could have been established by a fair and impartial investigation. “The modern day Neros were looking elsewhere when the Best Bakery and innocent children and helpless women were burning and were probably deliberating on how the perpetrators of the crime can be saved or protected.”

The Supreme Court indictment of the Modi government in Gujarat has come as a gift for the Congress on the eve of the elections. Party president, Sonia Gandhi, said that the entire country was feeling “relieved and satisfied” over the Supreme Court judgment. Addressing a meeting at the minority-dominated Modasa town in Sabarkantha district of Gujarat, Gandhi said the country was “proud” of its judicial system. Sonia Gandhi said the BJP had truly emerged as a “party with a difference” because it was a party that kept changing its principles and ideologies to suit its political ambitions.

Politics should be treated as a vehicle to serve the people but the BJP was using politics for “personal benefits.” Describing the BJP as the “slaves of the forces that spread hatred and violence,” she said the people of Gujarat recently experienced the fallout of its dangerous policies drawing condemnation from all over the world. The Supreme Court judgment had thankfully provided relief and satisfaction to the people in the country.

Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani has dismissed suggestions that the Supreme Court judgment in the Best Bakery case and the Lucknow saris stampede would mar the BJP’s prospects in the coming Lok Sabha elections. He said the track record of the NDA has encouraged the minorities to take a “second look” at the BJP.

Observers, however, note that the riot zone of Gujarat, comprising areas of Central and North Gujarat which erupted after the Godhra incident on February 27, 2002, and gave rich dividends to the ruling BJP in the assembly elections held in December that year, may hold the key to Lok Sabha elections due in the state on April 20. The Congress, which got badly mauled in the assembly elections, is hoping to stage a comeback from a situation which looked impossible two years ago. “If we win two or three in the riot affected zones against all odds, it would mean we can reach a double digit tally in Gujarat,” said a former Congress Chief Minister

There is reason for optimism in the Congress camp that it can spring some surprises in the riot zone comprising 11 Lok Sabha seats of Chotaudepur, Vadodara, Kheda, Anand, Kapadvanj, Godhra, Dahod, Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Mehsana and Sabarkantha.

In the 1999 elections, The Congress won 4 of these seats - Mehsana, Sabarkantha and Kheda and Kapadvanj - only to concede the Mehsana seat to the BJP in a later by-election. But while Congress won 4 Lok Sabha seats and the BJP 7, a closer examination shows that out of the total of 77 assembly segments in these 11 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress (38) and the BJP (39) were evenly placed. The dramatic transformation came in the assembly elections when out of these 77 assembly seats, BJP won 62 and Congress just 15. This was a gain of 23 seats/segments for BJP over the 1999 figure. It is significant here that if one takes the whole of Gujarat into account, BJP gained 14 seats/segments between 1999 and 2002. This means, outside the riot-affected zone, the BJP actually lost 9 seats/segments.

Even in the riot-affected zone, even though BJP may still hold the edge in most seats, there is a tough fight between the two main parties, except for Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar which seem to be clearly going BJP’s way.

The reason for this is clear. The communal polarisation, which was evident at the time of riots is on the wane. Seeking votes in the name of development is a tough task for the Modi government, especially in constituencies which have a large tribal component.

At the national level though the BJP is more confident. Its publicity messages are woven around the thought that while the party is proud of its achievements in five years of government at the Centre, there is a lot to be done and till it doesn’t fulfil the promises it has made for the next five years, it or the country and the people are not going to stop. Not till they connect by road every town, every village. Not till they fufill their dream for India in every field, be it health, education, power, water, telephone.



Congress : Sonia speaks

Congress president Sonia Gandhi has said that her party was fighting the elections to the 14th Lok Sabha on the basis of an ideology, a vision for India and not on “any family name or personality”. Rejecting charges that the Congress was being run like a family business, Sonia told The Hindustan Times: “It’s the BJP that wants to turn this election into a personality contest. We say: talk about the issues. They say: talk about (Atal Bihari) Vajpayee.” Picking on the BJP’s Vision Document, Sonia called it a photo-album with a few captions. “There are, I think, 50 pictures of Vajpayee. So, who believes in the cult of personality ? Us or them ?” she asked.

The Congress leader said the guiding objective behind her decision to join politics (in 1998) was to strengthen the Congress, not become prime minister: “I decided that it would be cowardice to sit back and stay at home. I owed it to the family that I married into to do whatever I could (for the Congress).

“It is hard for some people to understand why anyone would join politics except to become prime minister. But that’s not why I joined. I joined because I couldn’t have faced my own conscience otherwise.” The Congress president pointed out that when she entered politics, her children had the same concerns as she did when her husband Rajiv Gandhi opted for a political career. She said Rahul’s candidature from Amethi was a recent decision, taken around the time the campaign drew nearer. She dismissed speculation that Rahul’s candidature made him her political heir or the crown prince.”Who am I, anyway, to decide who my successor will be? The Congress elects its president. And there is no shortage of young leaders in the Congress. It is absurd to talk about Rahul as though I can arrange his succession,” she said. On the question of Priyanka following in her brother’s footsteps, Sonia’s reply was that the decision will be Priyanka’s, but she pointed out that it will be a difficult task for her daughter to look after her husband and two children.

The BJP, she claimed, began harping on her foreign origin on seeing the “tremendous” public response to her Jan Sampark Abhiyan: They always drag it out when they think the Congress is getting stronger. (But) Sonia argued that she could not see them getting any response on this issue.

Sonia also spoke at length on efforts by the Congress to forge electoral understandings with Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav. On SP general secretary Amar Singh’s statement that her party turned down an offer of 18-20 seats in UP, she said: “There was never any such offer. In fact, there was never any sort of discussion on numbers with either Mulayam Singhji or Amar Singhji.” Sonia also made it clear her party was not too happy with the offer of just four seats by Bihar’s strongman Laloo Prasad Yadav

Sometimes, keeping in mind the larger picture, one has to make certain adjustments no matter how disappointed one may feel, Sonia commented.

With the BJP making an issue of Sonia owning property in Italy, the Congress chief disclosed that she only had a share in her parent’s home. She revealed for the first time her father had died without making a will. According to Italian law, the bulk of a man’s estate goes to his wife and the rest is shared among his children. So, she was entitled to some share of the home he left behind, but that was hardly the same thing as having a house of her own in Italy.

The Congress insists that Jethmalani has not withdrawn. This was confirmed later by the noted lawyer who said despite family pressure which made him first announce that he was quitting the contest, he had changed his mind and decided to put dignity before friendship.

The Congress had contended that the appeal by the Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee requesting Jethmalani not to contest against him could be construed as an offence of corrupt practice under section 123 (2) of the Representation of the People Act.

Congress spokesman, Kapil Sibal took objection to Vajpayee’s appeal on the grounds that when it was issued, the Prime Minister had not even filed his nomination papers. The appeal, he said, was made by a Prime Minister asking another contestant to withdraw and also suggesting that the issues between him and Jethmalani could be tackled later.

Quoting from Section 123 (2) of the RPA which says that “any direct or indirect interference or attempt to interfere on the part of the candidate or his agent, or of any other persons with the free exercise of any electoral right,” Sibal asked: “Does it not constitute an offence or a corrupt practice... the onus lies on Mr. Vajpayee to explain as to why he made such a statement and what its purpose was. Was it not an attempt to make Mr. Jethmalani to withdraw? This election must be put off.”