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Left’s nuclear bluff: Another view of the emerging scenario |
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Harjit Singh
A temporary truce has been hammered out between the Manmohan Singh Government and the defiant Left and a face-saving agreement to set up a political committee to go into the security and foreign policy issues involved in the implementation of the 123 Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation agreement has been reached. But, given the fact that there will be almost an equal number of members from the UPA and the Communist parties on the committee and that there are no signs of either side climbing down from tough positions on the issue, any unanimous report by the Committee is unlikely to emerge. This shows that the Government has bought itself only a small breathing space. In spite of the fact that the statement after the August 30 meeting between the two sides has been worded in such a way that it neither commits the Congress to halt further negotiations on the deal nor reiterates the demand by the Left to put on hold any further dialogue until the Committee gives its report, the fact that the Government will not enter into a dialogue with the IAEA for some time to come in the name of lobbying for international support is a clear indication that the Government has submitted itself to the dictates of the Left. The Left is demanding that all talks for operationalisation of the 123 deal must be put on hold until the two sides have reached an agreement.
In diplomatic circles, the question of what happens if an unsatisfied Left withdraws support and topples the Government, is being hotly discussed. Various scenarios are being drawn up as to whether the Manmohan Singh Government will resign or continue as a minority Government until the next elections.
The Manmohan Singh Government is banking on the premise that if the BJP moves a no confidence motion against the Government [which it has however ruled out for the time being], not to be seen in the company of communal forces, the Left parties would boycott the vote and the UPA Government with the help of possibly some more smaller parties will survive and continue to be in power until the next elections. As of now, the UPA of which the Congress Party is the main constituent, has 210 members as against the Left parties, who put together have 59 members in the Lok Sabha.
Observers say that other parties including smaller ones like BSP, JD[S], MNF, NPP, SDF and PDP, could be wooed by the UPA Government with the bait of ministerial berths.
The other scenario is that the BJP-led NDA manages to garner a majority and form the government. But, the arithmetic is not in its favour. As compared to UPA, the BJP-led NDA has 172 members and other parties account for 89. Even if all the 89 non-NDA, non-Left and non-UPA parties line-up with the saffron-led alliance, their tally would stand at 261, 11 short of the magic figure of 272. They can get the remaining numbers from among the UPA allies, but the chances of that happening are remote, given the risk of aligning with the BJP and being part of an inherently disparate power-sharing arrangement that is not sustainable. The newly-formed non-NDA, non-UPA UNPA alliance is critical of the nuclear deal which it views as alliance with the “anti-Muslim satanic power”. It cannot take forward its campaign to woo the minorities while keeping overt company with the BJP. The UNPA’s political line is at once, therefore, a line that will come in the way of a BJP-supported regime. UNPA includes SP, TDP and the AIADMK.
But, the real question is whether the Left can afford to topple the Government and face the people and repeat its performance. Already there are discordant voices and the Marxists in West Bengal including veteran leader Jyoti Basu, Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and the State Party chief are not happy with Prakash Karat’s opposition to every word of the Indo-US pact. The State Party leaders have told their central leaders that the Left is unlikely to repeat its extraordinary performance of 2004 in West Bengal. And in Kerala, an open faction fight is unlikely to allow the CPI(M) to retain its 2004 bounty. The NDA is also bound to shrink in major States such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Gujarat where it won 70 seats in 2004 and the small gains in such states as Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Bihar cannot possibly make up for this loss. BSP chief Mayawati has already made Uttar Pradesh a no-go area for other parties.
The biggest beneficiaries in fresh elections are likely to be the Congress and its UPA allies. They may fall short of a clear majority, yet the Congress may well be able to formalize its existing understanding with the BSP to make up the deficit. In the process, the Left would eject itself from the enviable arm-twisting position it enjoys at present.
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