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Last ditch efforts on to avert showdown on Nuke deal

	August 27, 2007

With both the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the Left parties reaffirming their respective positions on the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal, which are diametrically op¬posed to each other, last ditch efforts are now on to either avert a showdown, or at least postpone the hour of reckoning - mid-term polls - for a few months. The Left parties have said that the least they expect from the Government is that it should press the ‘pause’ button on the nuclear deal. They say that in the meantime, mechanism can be set up to go into their objections to the deal and to address their concerns about the impact of the Hyde Act on India’s non-aligned foreign policy. The Government says that while it is prepared to hold discussions with the Left and other parties on the nuclear deal, there is no question of going back on the deal.



The crucial question now is whether pressing the ‘pause’ button will effectively kill the deal or give the government some time to bring around the opposition to the agreement with the United States. Opinion on this is divided. Some experts say that if the Government delays the next steps to be taken to operationalise the deal - agree on India-specific safeguards after holding discussions with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and to persuade the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) to lift the restrictions on the export of nuclear materials and technology to India - it will virtually lead to collapse of the deal as very little time will be left for Presi¬dent George Bush to push for an up-down vote in the US Congress clearing the 123 agreement, before his term expires. With the race for electing the next President gaining momentum in the United States, President Bush is well on its way to becoming a ‘lame duck’ incumbent of the White House.



Others say that there is no time frame laid down in the 123 agreement and the UPA Government can delay the steps to be taken in furtherance of the deal without much damage overall. But whether or not the deal can still be pushed through at a later stage, the Government bowing down to the Left diktat would cer¬tainly dent the credibility of the Manmohan Singh government, especially of the Prime Minister who has staked his all on the deal and has said categorically that there is no question of renegotiating the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States.





Debate in Parliament postponed yet again



Another indication of the unwillingness of both the Con¬gress-led UPA and the Left to bring matters to a head came with postponement of the Lok Sabha discussion on the nuclear issue yet again. The earlier understanding was that the much postponed debate in the Lok Sabha on the nuclear issue will take place on August 29 and 30. But it was decided late last week that the issue of price rise will be debated on these days, meaning that the discussion on the nuclear deal will not take place at least during this week.



Sources said the government and the Lok Sabha Speaker were able to list the price rise as the main debate agenda for this week when CPI(M) representatives in the Business Advisory Commit¬tee (BAC) chose to subtly press the ‘pause’ button on their push for an urgent debate over the nuclear stalemate.



Sources say there is a realisation, both in the Congress and the CPI(M), that an imminent parliamentary debate on the nuclear deal will make it unavoidable for the Prime Minister and the External Affairs Minister to state in unambiguous terms the government’s stand and the roadmap for future negotiations with the IAEA and the NSG. This could come in the way of giving more time to the government to hammer out a solution.



Given the anti-deal mood of NDA, Left and UNPA MPs, the government is in hurry to face a debate, which was originally to start right at the beginning of the session, but got postponed for various reasons. This sudden change of the CPI(M)’s debate priorities and the government side’s eagerness to play along were taken note of by other members of the BAC, but they also realised that the government can’t be pushed to the debate unless the CPI(M) was with them.



Addressing a press conference in Parliament House on Friday, CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechury made no secret of the fact that his party is now in no tearing hurry to push the government into the middle of a difficult debate on N-deal.



Maintaining that the Left also wanted to discuss ‘major issues’ like price rise, law on unorganised sector workers and implementation of Srikrishna Commission and Sachar Committee recommendations, Yechury said while the nuclear issue affected national sovereignty and the independent foreign policy of the country, the other issues affected millions of people.



“We certainly want a debate on the civil nuclear deal and the government, as you all know, has said it would fix the date for debate subject to the availability of time. At the same time, the CPI(M) wants to discuss all other issues which are very import¬ant for the common man. We don’t want the nuclear issue to hijack the entire session of Parliament,” Yechury explained.



Understandably, the BJP now sees a government-CPI(M) deal behind the delay. Party Deputy Leader in the Lok Sabha Vijay Kumar Malhotra said there were now indications of the government and the CPI(M) “trying to scuttle a parliamentary debate on the nuclear deal”. On his part, Parliamentary Affairs Minister P.R. Dasmunsi chose to skip his Friday press briefing to attend a function in his parliamentary constituency in West Bengal.





UPA supports nuclear deal



A meeting of key constituents of the UPA held on August 19 night threw in the alliance’s lot with coalition Chairperson Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The meeting expressed full confidence in their ability to address all legiti¬mate concerns voiced by the Left parties.



A statement to this effect was issued by the UPA leadership after a 90-minute meeting convened at the Prime Minister’s resi¬dence to address the situation arising out of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) demand that the government put on hold the India-United States nuclear agreement.



As for setting up a mechanism to evolve clarity on the issue, the allies were informed about such a demand from the CPI(M). “But since the Prime Minister and Sonia Gandhi have been authorised to do whatever is necessary to deal with the situation, it is for the government to work out the modalities,” said a UPA ally.



Expressing full faith and confidence in the leadership of Sonia Gandhi and Dr. Singh, the UPA in its statement noted that under their leadership, the alliance had been “consistently work¬ing for the welfare of the common man and for promoting India’s supreme national interest on the international plane.”



Not all coalition partners were present but representatives of the key constituents were there.



Keen that the Prime Minister’s authority should not be eroded, all present backed him and sought to assure him that they were with him all the way. At the same time, according to one participant, no one was in the mood for a mid-term election.





Congress to talk to Left this week



The Congress, which is heading the United Progressive Al¬liance government at the Centre, has decided to open a dialogue with the Left this week in a last ditch effort to resolve the crisis over the Indo-US nuclear deal. This was decided at a meeting of the Congress core group at Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s residence after party president Sonia Gandhi’s return from South Africa. She cut short her visit to South Africa by a day to attend to the developing crisis with the Left over the nuclear deal. Apart from Dr. Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Home Minister Shivraj Patil, Defence Minister A.K. Antony and political secretary of Congress president Ahmed Patel were present at the core group meeting.



Earlier on Friday, Pranab Mukherjee briefed Sonia Gandhi on the developments on the nuclear deal.



Sources say that there is a possibility that Sonia Gandhi may convene another meeting of the core group before her talks with the Left parties where she is expected to discuss the con¬tours of the mechanism to sort out differences on the nuclear deal.



There are reports that having secured the backing of the UPA allies on the nuclear deal issue, the Congress is now turning to DMK chief M. Karunanidhi to intercede in the crisis, given his rapport with Left leaders.



External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who visited Chennai at the weekend, has said that the Congress has initiated consultations with all UPA allies on the nuclear deal prior to a Parliamentary debate on the issue. Asked by newspersons about the options before the Government, Mukherjee said, “wait and watch.”



In a related development, the CPI(M) reiterated on Saturday, August 25, its demand that the Government press the ‘pause’ button on the nuclear deal. Party politburo member Sitaram Yechury, addressing a news conference in Hyderabad, said the Government could suggest a mechanism of its choice for evaluating the implications of the deal on the country’s interests.



“We are open to any mechanism provided it enables considera¬tion of all objections and the implications of the deal on the country are properly evaluated,” Yechury said. He advised the Centre not to push the country into a deal for which “we will have to pay a heavy price.”



The Left parties also did not have any objection to India’s participation in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s meeting next month, but “the agenda pertaining to India-specific protocol should not be taken further in the meeting.”



The Left parties did not want the present crisis to affect the government’s functioning, but it all depended on how the government responded to their demands. “We want a structured debate in Parliament based on which the government should clarify its stand on the objections raised by them,” he said adding the Government should not proceed on the deal till such time.



Yechury favoured an amendment to the Constitution making Parliament’s approval mandatory prior to signing of important agreements. The Constitution at present did not offer such scope on the ground that the government need not take the consent of Parliament as the Prime Minister was answerable to it.





Left putting up a united stand



On their part, the Left parties are holding talks among themselves to put up a united front against the nuclear deal. CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat met his CPI counterpart A.B. Bardhan in New Delhi on Saturday, August 25, to brief him on the deliberations at the CPI(M)’s central committee meeting which earlier in the week discussed the political situation arising out of the nuclear deal with the United States.



Karat visited the CPI headquarters at Ajoy Bhawan and held discussions with Bardhan. CPI national secretary and Rajya Sabha member D. Raja was present.



The CPI(M) Central Committee noted the objections and apprehensions voiced by scientists, public figures and intelli¬gentsia on the nuclear deal. It fully endorsed the stand taken by the Politburo that the bilateral agreement would bind India into a strategic alliance with the U.S. with long-term consequences.



The committee stated that while it did not want the “current crisis” over the deal to affect the UPA government, it was con¬tingent upon the government not proceeding further.



The CPI national executive is beginning a two-day meeting from August 28 to discuss the deal and steps in the economic and political field, besides the government’s domestic and foreign policies.



The Karat-Bardhan meeting came in the backdrop of the Con¬gress core group deciding on Friday night to hold talks with the Left parties in a bid to break the impasse over the nuclear deal.



The two smaller Left parties - the RSP and the Forward Bloc - on their part have been calling for withdrawal of support to the Manmohan Singh Government. The Forward Bloc on August 25 said the time was opportune to withdraw support. The RSP had made a similar demand earlier.





Onus for stability on Government : Karat



On Thursday, August 23, the CPI(M) central committee author¬ised the politburo to take whatever necessary measures to ensure that the Indo-US nuclear deal is not operationalised. A resolu¬tion adopted unanimously at the central committee meeting held in New Delhi said that the onus of destabilising the UPA-Left al¬liance should be placed firmly at the Government’s door.



Observers say that while the party decided not to budge from its ‘No next step’ stand, it does not want to be seen as toppling the Government.



If the government insists on going ahead in defiance of “majority opinion” in Parliament against the deal, it alone should be blamed for forcing mid-term polls.



This was the message, between the lines, of both the resolu¬tion “unanimously” adopted by the central committee and the responses given by party general secretary Prakash Karat at a news conference that followed. While making it clear that there had been no change in the CPI(M)’s firm opposition to the nuke deal, the resolution underlined that it was not for destabilising the government either.



“The central committee does not want the current crisis to affect the government,” it said, a point iterated by Karat when he told the media that “we have not used the words withdrawal of support in any of our statements. You won’t see a single leader of the CPI(M) either in Delhi or in Calcutta or in Hyderabad having said we will withdraw support”.



But lest these remarks be taken as a softening of stance, the resolution as well individual central committee members clarified that the party’s bottom line remained “save the govern¬ment or save the deal.”



After stating that it did not want the current crisis to affect the government, the very next line of the resolution noted: “However, this is contingent upon the government not proceeding further with the agreement.”



Karat made the same point repeatedly. “The responsibility for the future of this government lies with the government,” he said. Asked if it could continue as a minority government, he said: “This government runs on our support. How can it continue without our support?”



In what appeared a veiled effort to drive a wedge between the government’s eagerness to go ahead with the deal and the Con¬gress’ reluctance to risk a mid-term poll, Karat also stressed that the Left leaders were waiting “for the Congress leadership’s response” to their demand rather than that of the government.



While the resolution was adopted unanimously, there are reports that the West Bengal and Tripura units of the party asked the central leadership not to take any hasty decision on with¬drawal of support to the Congress-led UPA Government. Observers see this as one reason for the central committee not precipitating the fall of the Union Government.



The two powerful but numerically weak lobbies of West Bengal and Tripura had argued strongly during the two-day delib¬erations of the party’s central committee which concluded on Thursday about the urgency to enlighten the people about why the CPI(M) has threatened to withdraw support to the Manmohan Singh Government and the reasons for the party to oppose the nuclear deal. The central committee is understood to have accepted the argument of the West Bengal and Tripura lobbies and decided to depute high profile party leaders like Prakash Karat, Sitaram Yechury and Brinda Karat to tour the country and convey the CPI(M)’s message to the people.



In the 81-member central committee, West Bengal and Tripura have 18 members and all these members who attended the two-day party meeting argued that the leadership should take time before pulling its trump card of withdrawing support to the Government.



The West Bengal and Tripura lobbies argued that the deci¬sion taken by the party during the 2005 Kolkata party congress to expand the organization in the Hindi-belt will suffer a setback if the Marxists pull down the Union Government immediately.



Organisationally, the CPI(M) has gained by supporting the Congress in running the Government. Its organizational network in the Hindi-speaking belt has also increased. “Naturally, we should think several times before finalising our stand on support to the UPA Government. Withdrawing support will cer¬tainly ensure the fall of the Congress government, but there is no guarantee that the next government will heed our demand by revoking the Indo-US deal and it will also become uncertain which party will come to power in New Delhi, said a CPI(M) cen¬tral committee member from West Bengal.



He, however, made it clear that the central committee had not succumbed to the pressure from the West Bengal and Tripura lobbies, but had honoured their rationale regrading the fallout of this political impasse.





No China hand behind attack on nuclear deal : CPI(M)



The CPI(M) has rebutted charges that it is opposing the India-US nuclear deal at the behest of China.



An editorial in the party mouthpiece, People’s Democracy, says, “US imperialism cheer leaders and the drum-beaters of Indian ruling classes are advancing absurd reasoning of the CPI(M)’s opposition to the deal instead of contesting what we publicly state.” “The more bizarre disinformation campaign is that the CPI(M) is opposing the deal at Chinese behest,” it said. The editorial which also contests the Government’s stand that the deal is to augment energy resources of the country, says, “the nuclear deal not only exposes India to greater vul¬nerability on various scores, it drains a huge amount of our scarce resources and this prevents India from exploiting fully its available less expensive energy options.”



The write up charges the BJP with opting for “mere postur¬ing” and resorting to opposition to the deal only to lessen the hurt that such a deal ought to have been concluded under its government and not under the UPA Government.”





Congress effort to find way out of crisis



While reaffirming that there is no going back on the nuclear deal, the Congress has been trying to get the support of the UPA allies and also to emphasize the plus points of the nuclear deal. Speaking in New Delhi on August 20, the Prime Minister said, energy security was essential for the country to speed up its economic growth rate to the targeted 10 per cent. He reaffirmed the Government’s commitment to develop nuclear power as an alter¬native source of energy. Speaking after laying the foundation stone of ONGC’s new building in New Delhi, Dr. Manmohan Singh urged political parties to appreciate the vital national interest of pursuing a sound energy security strategy. He said no govern¬ment can afford to shirk this responsibility.



Talking to newspersons in New Delhi on August 22, the Prime Minister expressed the hope that his Government would be able to overcome the current political turbulence on the nuclear deal issue. Speaking during the media inter-action jointly with his Japanese counterpart, Shinzo Abe, Dr. Manmohan Singh said, “certainly there is some turbulence in the political air in Delhi, but I am confident that we shall overcome it. As someone said, “If winter comes, can spring be far behind.”





No JPC on nuclear deal



Earlier last week, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi categorically rejected the opposition demand for a joint parliamentary committee (JPC) to look into the nuclear deal. Speaking in New Delhi on August 20, he said the Government would answer all the questions relating to the Left demand for holding in abeyance talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency.



Both the NDA and the UNPA had demanded the setting up of a JPC to look into the nuclear deal. Dasmunsi said, “Is the nu¬clear deal a scam that a JPC has to look into it.”





Parliament functioning affected



Parliament functioning was affected throughout last week because of issues such as the nuclear deal, the Quattrocchi affair and remarks of Indian Ambassador to the United States Ronen Sen about the deal. On the first day of the week itself, August 20, both Houses witnessed pandemonium and repeated adjournments, with the NDA pressing the demand for setting up of a JPC on the nuclear deal.



On August 21, both Houses of Parliament were adjourned for the day with virtually no business being conducted after an uproar by both the Opposition and Left MPs over Ronen Sen’s interview to an internet service on the nuclear deal in which he used the phrase “headless chicken” which the MPs said was direct¬ed at them. The Ambassador’s clarification later that he did not refer to any Member of Parliament, and it was an observation about some media persons, did not mend matters. Both the NDA and the Left persisted in their demand throughout last week for the Ambassador’s recall. Several members have also given notices for privilege motions against the envoy and want him called to the bar of the House to reply to the charges against him.





Survey indicates losses for Left, Congress in case of snap polls



With prospects of a mid-term poll looming large, a survey carried out by The Week/C-Voter, says that both the Congress and the Left may be losers in case of snap elections. The big gainer would be Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party and some of the Third Front constituents.



The UPA might secure 172 to 192 seats, showing a downslide, while NDA’s kitty can go up to 178 to 198 seats and the Third Front can notch 44 to 54 seats, The Week/CVoter survey said.



In the 545-member Lok Sabha, the share of the four Left parties, which are having a standoff with the Government on the nuclear issue, may drop to 38 to 48 seats from the present all time best of 59 seats.



The BSP, which swept to power in the recent UP assembly polls belying all predictions, may see its numbers more than double. The BSP, which now has a strength of 18, can look forward securing 44 to 55 seats, the survey claimed. A handshake by Congress President Sonia Gandhi and BSP supremo Mayawati and the support of smaller parties could diminish the clout enjoyed by the CPI(M).



Independents may be able to cobble up 26 to 36 seats accord¬ing to the survey. UPA, BSP plus independents can be in a posi¬tion to form the government.



Thirty per cent of the voters polled were of the opinion that the Congress should listen to the Left parties and scrap the deal, while 47 per cent felt that the Congress should not listen to the Left demands. 23 per cent voters were undecided.





BJP gearing up for mid-term polls



While the UPA and the Left appeared to be trying to avert the prospect of snap polls, the BJP has decided to gear up for mid-term elections. At a meeting held at former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s residence on August 19, senior leader L.K. Advani asked party MPs to prepare for a mid-term poll. The same message came through at the meeting of the BJP Parliamentary Party on August 23. Speaking at a meeting, leader of the Opposi¬tion L.K. Advani said the UPA government might not complete its five year tenure. He said in the wake of the UPA-Left stand¬off, it will be difficult for the Manmohan Singh government to last its full term.



All India Anna DMK chief Jayalalithaa has demanded that Dr. Manmohan Singh should resign as Prime Minister forthwith. In a statement issued in Chennai, she accused him of allegedly working against the country’s sovereignty.



But the NDA is not completely united in opposing the nu¬clear deal. The Shiv Sena has differed from the BJP line say¬ing, “Everyone should be supporting the deal.” The Shiv Sena has 12 members in the Lok Sabha, and the number could become crucial in the event of a close vote to dislodge the government.



The Shiv Sena stayed away from the NDA meeting on the Indo-US nuclear deal, much to the anger of the BJP. The Shiv Sena mouthpiece, Saamna, criticised the Left for opposing the Congress on the Indo-US deal. The Sena leaders are also staying clear of NDA’s anti-nuclear deal programmes.



Another NDA constituent, the Trinamul Congress of Mamata Banerjee, also appears to be keeping equal distance from the Congress and the NDA on the nuclear deal. Reports say that if the UPA-Left ties break and snap polls are held, Mamata Banerjee may dump the NDA and join the Congress in fighting the CPI(M) in West Bengal. Significantly, Mamata Banerjee who was in Delhi, failed to show up at the NDA meeting held on August 20 morning.