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Kashmir : UN polemics fallout in Valley likely

	September 29, 2003

errorist organisations are expected to step up violence in Kashmir after the bitter verbal duel between Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and President Pervez Musharraf at the United Nations. Hopes that the spiralling violence in the state would subside after the two leaders had their say in New York have been replaced by fears that their verbal attacks could lead to renewed strikes. “Yes, we expect the violence to go up but we are prepared to deal with it,” said a senior official.

Stepped up strikes also mean the terrorists are sighted and we can go after them. In the 10 days following Gazi Baba’s death, security agencies killed 90 militants mainly because the terrorists exposed themselves. It is much more difficult to go after militants when they don’t show their hand. They melt into the crowd mingling with citizens and quietly preparing for the right opportunity to strike. Because of fears of civilian casualties, it is often impossible to catch militants when they are not engaging the forces.

Now, with Vajpayee categorically ruling out talks with Islamabad unless terrorist activities end, there will be no need for Pakistan to restrain militant outfits, observers feel. After the Prime Minister’s April peace initiative, militants in Kashmir had been advised by Pakistan to lie low and not disrupt the process of normalisation. However, movement towards peace was at a snail’s pace because of India’s cautious approach. There was not much progress apart from the restoration of the high commissioners in Islamabad and Delhi and the resumption of the Delhi-Lahore bus service.

A violent Kashmir would bring international focus back to the state. Islamabad wants the US sufficiently alarmed at the rising tension between the two neighbours to act as peacemaker. Kashmir watchers feel that peace initiative taken by the Prime Minister during his visit to the Valley has been nullified by the mutual attacks at the UN as well as in separate official functions in New York. After the Musharraf attack on India for not going for a dialogue despite offers and claiming terrorism was an indigenous affair, Vajpayee hit back pointing out that Islamabad was indulging in a virtual blackmail by linking talks with the cessation of militancy in Jammu and Kashmir thus proving that violence was being encouraged and supported from across the border.



Hurriyat moves for patch-up

The Hurriyat is still hopeful of a patch-up with the dissident faction led by Syed Ali Shah Geelani. Senior separatist Fazal Haq Qureshi, nominated by Hizbul Mujahideen as its pointman to hold parleys with New Delhi following the truce called by the outfit in July 2000, has been asked by Hurriyat leader Moulvi Abbas Ansari to strike a deal with the faction headed by hardliner Geelani. Qureshi, a member of the Hurriyat general council and who chose to remain equi-distant from both groups, is respected by the leadership that supports Geelani. Even Geelani acknowledges that Qureshi has tirelessly worked for the ‘’cause of Kashmiris’ struggle’’ and perhaps for that reason alone, he may face no opposition from the militant leadership.

Though Ansari denied that Qureshi was ‘’specially’’ assigned this task, conglomerate sources reveal that his services are indeed being sought to bring the ‘’two deviating groups on one line’’. Qureshi was present at the executive council meeting called by Ansari. The meeting was attended by two former Hurriyat chairmen - Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and Prof. Abdul Gani Bhat - People’s Conference representative Bilal Gani Lone and Ansari himself. Three executive constituents - the JKLF, People’s league and Jamaat-e-Islami - did not attend the meeting held at Rajbagh headquarters.

Sources said the four executives later met Qureshi and gave him the brief to ‘’forge unity among all separatist leadership of all hues’’ - a fact confirmed by Ansari. ‘’We are in the process of getting separatists from all ideologies under one umbrella. We will nominate a committee to talk to general council members, including those who support Geelani and outsiders like Shabir Ahmad Shah to further strengthen the amalgam,’’ Ansari said. Though the Hurriyat executive issued showcause notices to eight general council members who showed support for Geelani, sources said Qureshi had expressed a desire to talk to the dissidents.

Meanwhile, welcoming Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s call for a ceasefire on the LoC, Moulvi Abbas Ansari, leader of one of the faction of the Hurriyat Conference, has appealed to militants to declare a ceasefire in the Valley that can lead to conditions conducive for talks with Pakistan.

When the All Parties Hurriyat Conference split recently, most predictions about its inevitable collapse had already exhausted themselves. Ever since its founding in 1993, the 25-party APHC, the first overground, separatist political front recognized by both India and Pakistan, has been beset with friction. Its clearly defined moderate and hardline factions, their frequent jockeying for supremacy have ensured that the Hurriyat has remained riven by dissension for most part of its existence.

Leaders including Syed Ali Shah Geelani, who spearheaded the current split, have consistently supported jihadi violence, especially by outfits which foresee an orthodox Islamist future for the state. Parties like the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front have renounced violence as part of their agenda. On Kashmir’s future, Geelani and others espouse accession to Pakistan, while some others including the JKLF demand an independent state.

Differences within the Hurriyat have been most apparent every time steps towards peace have quickened between India and Pakistan. The recent developments in the Hurriyat would appear to be a setback for India’s Track II diplomatic efforts. Pakistan, partly responsible for the Hurriyat’s creation in 1993, has however downplayed the split. In the days since the split there has also been a palpable tempering of stances on the part of the more moderate faction.

At first, Ansari’s supporters in the Hurriyat threatened disciplinary action; now show-cause notices have been issued to the “rebels” asking for an explanation. The split appears the most serious in the Hurriyat’s decade-old history; at the same time, doubts about its permanency remain. The Hurriyat speaks in different voices, its actions are often contradictory and at cross-purposes; managing an unwieldy coalition may have reduced it to an “amalgamation of compromises”, yet the Hurriyat continues to occupy an important space in the region’s polity. Its leaders can claim a certain mass following in places under their influence; individually, they remain in danger of being relegated to irrelevance.

Fears remain that the moderates will be marginalized or will eventually be eliminated from the political space they currently occupy, as the Geelani faction has the support of the more jihadi groups. It is here that the international community, by pressing on with its insistence on dialogue, must boost the prospects of Hurriyat moderates; India for its part should not allow the frequently reviled Track II efforts to lose momentum.



Sonia visits Leh : Hits out at BJP

Congress president Sonia Gandhi went on a visit to Leh last week and addressed meetings. She accused the Bharatiya Janata Party of fomenting communal hatred in the country. Addressing a public meeting at Leh, she said: “The BJP is creating an artificial wedge between brothers (bhai bhai mein algav phehla rahe hai) and this is in contrast to our (Indian) values which have stood the test of centuries.”

Indirectly referring to the Kargil coffin scam, she said: “The troops in the forward areas such as Ladakh, who are safeguarding our frontiers, should be provided with all the necessary equipment. There should not be any corruption in this as this is a matter of national security, which is of paramount importance to every one.”

The Congress president said she had come to Jammu and Kashmir some months ago (May last). Things are improving in the State and the record number of tourists this summer is ample proof of the good days to come, she claimed. Recalling the Nehru clan’s link with the people of Ladakh, she said: “The Gandhi-Nehru family has a close relationship with the people of Ladakh. Nehru after becoming Prime Minister used to visit the place quite often and this was true of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi.”