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Kashmir : Talks with Hurriyat, signs of a roadblock |
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Talks between New Delhi and the All-Party Hurriyat Conference appear to have run into rough weather. After two rounds of discussions held since January this year, the Hurriyat has now suddenly developed cold feet in pursuing the dialogue process. In fact, there are indications that the third round of talks scheduled later this month may have to be postponed indefinitely.
Observers say the immediate obstacle seems to be the disarray within the Hurriyat itself. Its chairman, Maulana Abbas Ansari, resigned recently after a virtual revolt against his leadership from several factions of the organisation. To make matters worse, his decision to hand over the mantle of leadership to Mirwaiz Umer Farooq has come as a blow with the latter refusing to take up the responsibility unless the different groups reunify. This means the Hurriyat today is a headless body.
So far, the Centre had placed a lot of hope in the Mirwaiz as a key player in the dialogue process with the Hurriyat. He is young, popular and, most importantly, pragmatic in his approach to a long-term settlement to the Kashmir problem. The change in leadership within the Hurriyat was geared to take the talks forward and not stall them. Unfortunately, the Mirwaiz appears to be under considerable pressure at the moment; as a result, he is unlikely to take a conciliatory position towards New Delhi. This is underlined by his statement that there was little in the Hurriyat holding talks unless all the Kashmiri groups were united on this decision. A reunification of the Hurriyat, according to observers, seems to be a tall order considering the deep divisions within the separatist groups on a dialogue with New Delhi.
The chief opponent of the talks, ousted former Hurriyat Chairman and hardliner Syed Ali Shah Geelani, has already declared that he could consider reconciliation with the organisation only if it publicly apologises for not boycotting the 2002 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly poll and also for starting the dialogue process with New Delhi. Other separatist groups like the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), the Peoples League and the Democratic Freedom Party are also lukewarm to the reunification initiative by the Mirwaiz, say observers.
The other disturbing signal from the Mirwaiz has been his call for a tripartite dialogue between the Hurriyat, New Delhi and Islamabad, as a way out of the present deadlock. That the Centre will never accept direct Pakistani involvement in what it considers as an internal problem of India, is another way of stalling the talks.
There are several reasons for the Mirwaiz and other moderate leaders of the Hurriyat to have backtracked from their more enthusiastic approach to talks with New Delhi just a few months ago. An immediate factor may well be the renewed cycle of terrorist violence targeting the moderate leadership of the Hurriyat. Significantly, one of the more recent victims of these attacks has been the uncle of the Mirwaiz.
It is also significant that the Kashmiri separatist leaders appear to have hardened their position after meetings with Pakistan Foreign Secretary Riaz Khokhar during the recent Indo-Pak talks in New Delhi. This is quite ironical considering the Indian Government had shown unprecedented accommodation in facilitating these meetings which, in the past, invariably provoked protests from South Block. Clearly, Islamabad has not responded in kind to this gesture.
Observers say Pakistan’s manipulative games with the Hurriyat leadership could also be linked to the bold and imaginative measures suggested by India during the Foreign Secretary-level talks to facilitate people-to-people contacts across the border in Kashmir. The Pakistani delegation was reportedly taken by surprise at the Indian proposals that were geared to meet the long-standing demands from groups like the Hurriyat as well as other Kashmiri political parties. Having been caught on the wrong foot, it is quite possible that Islamabad would like to throw a spanner in the ongoing dialogue process between New Delhi and the Hurriyat in a bid to not lose diplomatic leverage on Kashmir.
Yet, quite apart from the impact of terrorist violence and Pakistani machinations, there is another factor which may affect the talks between New Delhi and the Hurriyat. This is directly linked to the regime change at the Centre and consequently the new parameters to the dialogue. It can be recalled that a key element in former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s Kashmir peace initiative last year was the offer of talks to the Hurriyat with no less a person than Deputy Prime Minister Lal Krishna Advani. With Advani himself masterminding the talks, the dialogue process, observers say, had been elevated to a level that the Hurriyat could not but afford to take serious note. Indeed, it was the involvement of Advani and the entire weight of the Home Ministry behind him in the talks that had, for the first time, raised hopes of some concrete progress in Kashmir.
Although, the previous government’s chief negotiator, N.N Vohra, has been retained, he is unlikely to have the same political backing as he enjoyed before.
According to observers, the present Government will have to make special efforts to regain the confidence of the Hurriyat before it can realistically expect the dialogue process to move forward.
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