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Kashmir : Looking at the future

	November 04, 2002

People’s Democratic Party (PDP) chief Mufti Mohammad Sayeed was sworn in as the new Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir on November 2. This marked a new phase in the politics of the most troubled State in India. For the first time in its history, and after 27 years of the one-party rule of the Abdullah family, J&K will have a multi-party coalition Government.

Hours before the nine-member was sworn in, militants fired grenades at Mufti Sayeed’s house on the outskirts of Srinagar. Within a couple of hours of the swearing-in in the evening, Congress leader Sikander Khan and his two bodyguards were killed in an attack near Batamalloo. And in the third militant strike of the day, a police constable was shot at point blank range at Lal Chowk in the heart of Srinagar, in a clear message that the challenge of the militants had not died down after the Assembly polls.

Sayeed’s daughter Mehbooba’s bodyguard was injured in the strike on the CM’s house. One grenade exploded in the air, the other behind the house. Sayeed and his family were in at the time. A hitherto unheard-of militant group called Al Nasireen (the victorious) claimed responsibility. The group has announced a reward of Rs 50 lakh for Sayeed’s head, and of Rs 40 lakh for his senior colleague, Muzaffar Hussain Beg. The responsibility for killing Congressman Khan was taken by the Al Madina.

Along with Sayeed, Governor G.C. Saxena swore in senior Congress leader Mangat Ram Sharma as Deputy Chief Minister. Others sworn in were Peerzada Mohammed Syeed and Mula Ram, also from the Congress; Beg and Ghulam Hasan Mir from the PDP, and Harshdev Singh from the Panther’s Party. Two Independents, Nawang Rigzin, and Haji Nisar Ali, from Leh and Kargil, respectively, will be Ministers of State in the new Government.

Although the day was marred by violence, there was no escaping the relaxed air. The Mufti has generated high expectations and he is aware of the pitfalls. “We will now have to deliver,” he admitted “and this is an enormous responsibility. My first task is to bring peace to the State.” Congress president Sonia Gandhi, who flew in to attend the swearing-in ceremony, said she was confident. Asked about the security forces’ concern regarding the Government’s plans to disband the much-feared Special Operations Group and release those in jail, she said: “Mufti Sahib is a responsible person. We are responsible people. The security forces didn’t need to see it in that light.”

For the Congress, the swearing-in ceremony was also meant to send a signal that Sonia Gandhi was there as a potential leader of a national coalition. In fact, her giving the first round of Chief Ministership to the Mufti, and the flexibility she displayed in the last few days leading up to the formation of the Government today, has raised hopes of other regional parties. Like the Samajwadi Party (SP) for a tie-up in Uttar Pradesh and for a line-up in Gujarat.

There was pressure from the Independents who wanted to be included in the Cabinet. But the Mufti finally managed to persuade them that the first round of the Cabinet should be a small one. The new CM said he will go in for Cabinet expansion after a short session of the Assembly later this month.

While the Congress came to Srinagar to lend its support to the new Government after a historic election-there were Manmohan Singh, Ambika Soni, C K Jaffer Sharief, Ghulam Nabi Azad and others besides Sonia-there was no representative of the Central Government at the ceremony except Chamanlal Gupta, who is anyway identified with the State. This struck a jarring note. Prominently seated in the front row was Omar Abdullah, the president of the National Conference and the Mufti shook hands with him warmly soon after he entered the hall.



Omar says party now wiser

Omar Abdullah has said he is wiser now about people’s aspirations and their expectations from his party. It was unwise, he said, to be pro-New Delhi at the cost of losing support in Kashmir. “Rather than being Kashmir’s voice in Delhi, we were perceived to be Delhi’s voice in Kashmir,” Omar said in an interview.

He now plans to rediscover the NC’s roots and revamp its structure. The party, Omar said, paid for straying from its political agenda of autonomy for the State. The NC had won on that poll plank in 1996. “We have lost our roots, we need to find them again.” Amid various leaders’ persuasion to stay on in New Delhi, Omar has decided against it. Dissatisfied with his father’s Government and its image, Omar seeks a return to grandfather Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah’s political agenda. He had spent 22 years in jail for launching a plebiscite movement after his ouster as Prime Minister and detention in 1953. Omar said: “We knew what people wanted but we failed to deliver. We did a lot of development and provided jobs to people. But we strayed from our political agenda,” he said.

And Mufti Sayeed took advantage, he said, and cornered votes on issues such as POTA (Prevention of Terrorism Act) repeal and Special Operations Group (SOG) disbanding. “This was a lesson for us.” The Farooq Government’s POTA implementaion and the Mufti’s vow to repeal it made a difference.

Omar believes the euphoria of the Mufti’s “pro-people” agenda will fizzle out with time. “I told Mufti Sahib you will face the same problems the NC ran into. It’s a different game - being in the Opposition and running a government.” One thing the NC won’t do, Omar emphasised, is “rely on the new Government’s mistakes to win (back) people’s support”. “Let people judge our deeds. I have always done what I have said.” Omar, however, criticised the PDP-Congress alliance for overlooking greater autonomy in their common minimum programme.



Revolt in JKLF

Meanwhile, top leaders of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), a constituent of the Hurriyat Conference, have revolted against chairman Javed Ahmad Mir. Founder members Mohammad Iqbal Gandroo, Wajahat Qureshi, Khurshid Ahmad Dar and Rasikh Khan said they had no faith in Mir and staked claim to the outfit’s leadership. They asked the Hurriyat to suspend Mir from its seven-member Executive Council and not allow him to attend the conglomerate’s meetings.

The group asked militants to start negotiations with New Delhi if the response was positive from the Government. “Mir does not have the qualities of a leader,” Gandroo, who was announced as the new chief, said. Gandroo was released in 2001 after 11 years of detention. He had been arrested over the killing of four Air Force officers in the 90s at Rawalpora near Srinagar. The group claimed the support of the entire cadre and said their faction was the real JKLF. “After Amanullah Khan, the party has been facing internal bickerings. The JKLF today needs a strong and powerful leadership. So we are announcing Gandroo as the new leader,” the group said. Gandroo said he was not against detained chief Yasin Malik’s leadership but “his arrest had weakened the party”.

On Mufti Sayeed’s call for talks between New Delhi and the separatists, they said, it was the mujahideen who have to talk. “It is they who are fighting on the field,” the leaders said.



Challenges before Mufti

The immediate challenge before Chief Minister Mufti Sayeed to take along all parties in the tasks he has set for himself and to facilitate a dialogue with the Hurriyat and other militants. There is little doubt that the Mufti was the best man for the job. The normally cautious Sonia Gandhi showed statesmanship - and the ability to take a gamble - in recognising this. Statesmanship because going by established coalitional conventions, it should have been Azad as the leader of the larger party, and there was pressure in his favour from within the Congress. But his installation could have added to the restiveness and alienation in the Valley. Given the changing mood in the State, reflected in the large voter turnout in the recent polls, this was not a risk worth taking. Sonia was also averse to splitting the PDP to form a Congress government, which would have negated the mandate. In any case, it would have been difficult to do this because the MLAs - several of them were supported by the militants - apprehended that they might be bumped off if they changed sides

It is a gamble because by agreeing to the poll promises made by the PDP, like the assimilation of the Special Operations Group in the J&K police and the release of the militants who have been jailed without being charged, Sonia runs the risk of being accused of facilitating militancy if the Mufti fails and indigenous terrorism shows no sign of abating. Hers is, after all, an all-India party with a stake in every State. But she has taken that risk.

Though the Mufti is to be the CM for a three-year period in a rotational formula evolved between the two parties - this could be an important power-sharing blueprint for future coalitions if successful - his real test will be fulfilling his promises. Nobody expects him to resolve the State’s problems overnight. Everyone knows that there is a gestation period for development to take place and normalcy restored. But it may be possible to staff hospitals and schools in areas outside of cities and this could be done quickly and will make a difference. His promise to rehabilitate the Kashmiri Pandits, even if initially it is just tokenism, could go a long way in creating confidence in Jammu.

Most crucial, however, will be the first impressions the new CM creates about doing things differently, the political will he demonstrates and the extent to which he can succeed in bringing down the tension in J&K. The Mufti has also been given a rare opportunity to make amends for 1990, when his kidnapped daughter Rubaiyya was released in return for militants. That move proved to be a watershed. The situation kept deteriorating after that.



Sonia’s statesmanship

Coming back to the role of the Congress, Sonia Gandhi, according to political observers, has killed two birds with one stone. First, by yielding the CM’s position to the PDP, she has shown magnanimity and generosity which will indubitably earn her some brownie points. Second, she has effectively been able to ensure that the radical programme the PDP wanted to implement is toned down to suit the interests of the Congress. The charter of 31 points mutually agreed upon, has 17 points devoted to the restitution of peace and normalcy and curbing corruption. However, the issue of devolution of power for the State finds no visible mention.

While taking the decision to let the PDP lead the new government in J&K, Sonia Gandhi has conveyed important signals about the Congress’ approach to national issues. First, she has emphasised that the party’s overall credibility and its commitment to the well-being of people is more important than any individual. Second, that national interests are a matter of higher priority than the interests of the party even if those interests were based on rational considerations. Third, that the party should be imbued with a larger vision.

It was obviously a difficult decision to take, given that a fair segment of Congress leadership, including the leaders in J&K, had different views. At the organisational level, there are bound to be difficult negotiations over the distribution of portfolios. Having conceded the Chief Ministership, the Congress would be right in demanding some of the important portfolios. Mufti Sayeed should be conscious that the successful holding of the elections and his assuming the Chief Ministership is only the first step in dealing with complex issues.

While the Common Minimum Programme has been agreed upon between the Congress and the PDP, one cannot ignore their differences on various issues in their election manifestoes. While the PDP’s concerns are limited to its Constituency in J&K, particularly in the Valley, the Congress’ objectives are broader and deeper. The manner in which Congress participants in the Government deal with the issues in J&K has nationwide implications because the Congress is a national party.

Issues related to dialogue with secessionist groups will have to be dealt with in a manner where those committed to secessionism and violent means should not be allowed to utilise the proposed dialogue to further their objectives. The problem of releasing political prisoners will have to be resolved with care. The issue of merging the Special Task Force with the law and order agencies of J&K should be resolved in a manner where the operational efficiency of this specially trained force does not diminish, given that Pakistan will continue its intrusive violent activities in J&K.