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Kashmir : Groundwork for summit

	June 25, 2001

One of the key national issues that Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee is addressing immediately after his return from Mumbai where he underwent a knee surgery, concerns Jammu and Kashmir. As part of his preparation for the summit with Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, it is understood that the armed forces are likely to present him with their assessment. This basically means the Army’s assessment of the ground situation. And this is not likely to be very positive. According to sources in the Directorate General of Military Intelligence (DGMI), quoted in the media, “there has been little let-up in infiltration from across the Line of Control (LoC) and the Army Chief will be giving the PMO concrete intelligence of Pakistan Army training terrorists in military camps across the LoC.” Pakistan is also not allowing India to carry out fencing in the Kathua-Sambha-Jammu sector of the international border by resorting to regular firing. According to the former Chief of Army Staff, Gen. V.P. Malik, firing along the LoC should be discussed with President Musharraf along with other specific military confidence-building measures.

After the withdrawal of the ceasefire, at least 270 persons, including 184 militants and 50 civilians have died. There is fear that despite the militants being on the defensive, violence will flare up in the days close to the summit. There are already reports that militant agencies in Pakistan, opposed to the Vajpayee-Musharraf talks, have sent messages to the Divisional and District commanders of the Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed to carry out spectacular strikes. Instructions are to force the Army to withdraw some troops from the LoC to look after internal security to enable large groups of infiltrators to sneak into Kashmir.



Hurriyat making the best of a bad deal

The All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC) has sought a meeting with the Prime Minister and the Pakistani President. Two identical letters have been sent by Hurriyat Chairman Abdul Ghani Bhat to the two leaders. In his letters Prof. Bhat has said that “we will have to demonstrate a deeper sense of responsibility and a higher degree of understanding in dealing with the situation, which has assumed alarming proportions. Prof. Bhat has asserted that the “voice of the people” of Kashmir would have to be heard “under any circumstances, any time,” and that the “stark reality” was that the “People of Kashmir” would be the “final arbiter” of their destiny. “Without a reference to the people, diplomacy would mean nothing.”

Though Mr. Vajpayee is reportedly considering Prof. Bhat’s letter, there is little likelihood of the Prime Minister meeting Hurriyat leaders. But there are indications that Pakistan is debating its options. The Foreign Minister, Mr. Abdul Sattar, had recently suggested that the Hurriyat be involved in the dialogue. This had given some hope to the Hurriyat leaders after the mild rebuffs they got from New Delhi and Islamabad. The Hurriyat was forced to moderate its stand when it announced postponement of its ongoing stir against the Government to allow the summit to be held peacefully. But within twenty-four hours, moderates and hardliners were speaking in different voices.

This has been a major problem for the Hurriyat. Mr. Abdul Ghani Lone and Syed Ali Shah Geelani had fallen apart last year when the latter helped Prof. Abdul Ghani Bhat to win the poll for the post of Chairman of the APHC. But in recent months Prof. Bhat and Mr. Geelani have also developed differences with the former adopting moderate postures and the latter trying to be a hawk.

Prof. Bhat had suggested in a letter to the Chief of the Jamait-e-Islami that Syed Geelani be replaced by some other leader in the APHC. At that stage, Prof. Bhat had the support of Mr. Lone, the JKLF constituent and Maulvi Umar Farooq. Even Sheikh Aziz of the People’s League did not oppose the demand. But later Sheikh Aziz was again joined the Syed Ali Shah group because he had been ignored by the Pakistan High Commission when he demanded red-carpet treatment during his visit to Pakistan. Once he patched up with Geelani, he was well received in Pakistan and got permission to have a long session with General Musharraf and other senior leaders.

There are some elements even within the APHC who fear a vertical split in the organisation. In fact, the chairman of the People’s Conference and senior leader of the APHC, along with other moderates, started blaming Syed Geelani for providing moral and material assistance to activists and leaders of the Islamic Student League, the Muslim League, the Jammu and Kashmir Freedom Movement and the People’s League with the aim of creating an alternative to the Hurriyat Conference. According to Mr. Lone, this move is blessed by hardliners in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and by agencies in Pakistan.

It is no longer a secret that Mr. Lone has been in favour of independence for the Kashmir Valley. He is opposed to Kashmir’s incorporation with Pakistan. With the Hurriyat getting divided over pro-Azadi and pro-Pakistani forces, agencies across the border have started providing encouragement to those hardliners who have been vocal in demanding merger of Kashmir with Pakistan. And, in the scheme Syed Ali Shah Geelani continues to be the most trusted man of Pakistan.

In addition to this, Pakistani agencies do not want to put all their eggs in one basket, i.e. Hurriyat Conference. Islamabad has become wiser after the events that took place in Jammu and Kashmir during the past 25 years when its anchor in the State, Sheikh Abdullah, changed his approach and signed an agreement with the then Prime Minister, Mrs. Indira Gandhi, in 1974 to regain power.

Experts are of the opinion that by encouraging Syed Geelani and others to form a parallel body the Pakistani agencies are trying to force the moderates in the Hurriyat Conference to either follow the pro-Pakistan line or lose support from across the border.

The moderates in the Hurriyat Conference are also worried over the attempts being made to “weaken” the representative character of the 23-party conglomerate. The worry is manifest following moves by the Democratic Freedom Party chief, Mr. Shabir Shah, to rope in political leaders and separatists of different hues so as to form a new conglomerate to pose a threat to the Hurriyat Conference. Mr. Shah has been in constant touch with several separatist leaders, including Mr. Azam Inquillabi of the Liberation Front, Mr. Misadiq Adil, Mr. Fazal Haq Qureshi and Mr. G.N. Naik of the People’s League, Mr. Hashim Qureshi and Mr. Abdul Majid Dar. The latter is the chief commander (operations) of the Hizbul Mujahideen.

And the group headed by Mr. Shabir Shah is engaged in giving due representation to people from Jammu and Ladakh in this set up. He has decided to include Kashmiri Pandits also in his group. If such moves materialise, the Hurriyat Conference will have no face to claim that it represents the people of the State and deserves to be involved in the talks between Delhi and Islamabad.



Low expectations from the summit

According to most of the media, not much is expected from next month’s summit. New Delhi wants to retain the Kashmir Valley with perhaps an eventual conversion of the LoC as the border. But the Pakistani establishment would be left rudderless if the Kashmir issue was so easily resolved, with Pakistan being left with what it already holds! In any case, any worthwhile concession that could lead to an eventual solution of the Kashmir issue would require strong leader in all the three centres that are concerned with decisions on Kashmir: Delhi, Islamabad and Srinagar. This does not appear to be the case at present.

But, analysts point out that positive beginnings can be made in several other areas: easier visa regime, opening of consulates in cities like Karachi and Mumbai and exchange of prisoners. Greater economic cooperation bilaterally and via the SAARC would do wonders for the region as would new initiatives on Siachen, the Wellur barrage, the Tulbul project and others. Exchange of scientists, intellectuals, musicians, artists, journalists and students would go a long way towards strengthening Track-11 diplomacy. Last but not the least, the resumption of cricket relations is an absolute must.

A great beginning seems to have been made with an Iran-India oil pipeline via Pakistan. With all sides agreeing to the project, economic diplomacy might lay the foundation for solid friendship and for peace and cooperation in the future.

But the temptation to play to the gallery is strong on both sides. On the Indian side, External Affairs Minister Mr Jaswant Singh first made the provocative statement that J & K, including Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, was non-negotiable. And then, the Home Ministry cracked down on the All Party Hurriyat Conference by taking into custody its senior leaders Abdul Ghani Butt and Syed Ali Shah Geelani. This move only gave credibility to the Hurriyat which the Government says doesn’t the represent Kashmiris.

For his part, General Musharraf could have avoided stressing Kashmir as the core issue between the two countries. The Pakistani President has spoken of Kashmir as the “unfinished agenda”, adding for good measure that he will not allow this “core issue” to be sidelined during the talks. Predictably, this hardline emphasis took away substantially from his subsequent remark that he and Mr Vajpayee were going to change the course of history.

But as the summit is approaching, Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf is making positive statements. His statement that religion and politics cannot be mixed is an observation which needs to be commended. The legitimacy which the forces of bigotry have got over the years may well be the reason why militants, though trained and sheltered by Islamabad, challenged Gen. Musharraf’s statement. They used some mosques and shrines in Kashmir in the last few days to fight their parochial battle, to prove that they do not differentiate between religion and politics. That their organisations have their headquarters in Pakistan intact does not give much credibility to Gen. Musharraf’s statement. Without any doubt, their purpose was to compel the security forces to damage the sacred places where militants had holed up.

Of course, the Hurriyat is most to blame, according to some Kashmir watchers. It has tarred the movement for Kashmiri identity with the Islamic brush. Some Hurriyat leaders have openly aligned themselves with religious elements that have killed Hindus and Sikhs in cold blood. Now the Hurriyat did ask militants to stop using mosques. But it was a belated reaction, after much damage was done. In fact, it should have shown the courage to condemn militants for demolishing the Charar-e-Sharif shrine.

During the Narasimha Rao regime, Mr. Yasin Malik, a Hurriyat leader, brokered an agreement which resulted in the withdrawal of the militants from the holy Hazratbal shrine. He went on a fast-unto-death to make the two sides realise the gravity of the situation. Since he is abroad, some other leader should have come forward to persuade the militants now. This would have been proof of the Hurriyat’s new policy not to call for strikes against “State terrorism” in view of the forthcoming summit. But its leaders are sulking for having been left out. They should seriously consider revising their policy to mix religion with politics if they want to play any role.

The founder of Pakistan, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, wanted religion to be separated from politics. True, he played the Muslim card to muster support. But as soon as he found his dream of Pakistan coming true, he said that people in the subcontinent should cease to be Muslims and Hindus and consider themselves either Pakistanis or Indians. If Jinnah had lived a little longer, he would have established a secular State of Pakistan. This would have brought the two countries closer.

Not to mix religion with politics was also the call Mahatma Gandhi gave during the independence movement. It remains the country’s ethos, notwithstanding the noise fundamentalists on this side make in the name of Hindu Rashtra. This basic belief in secularism is the main reason why India does not entertain the idea of dividing the State on religious grounds, separating the Muslim-majority Valley from the rest of Jammu and Kashmir.

In fact, Gen. Musharraf has spoken out against the religious organisations rather late in the day. They have been holding Pakistan to ransom for a long time. The Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Hizbul Mujahideen feel so entrenched and powerful that they are ready to bite the hand that feeds them. Maybe they think that a regime which supports the Taliban in Afghanistan will not go far enough to take action against them. Since Islamabad has done little to stop cross-border militancy, they have reason to believe that they have the support of some in the Musharraf junta.