Afghanistan, a State ripped apart by war,poverty and corruption, is to hold
elections for a new President and Provincial Assemblies three days from now, on August 20. The election of 2004 was hailed by the West for installing democracy in the country. But, President Hamid Karzai has proved an embarrassing failure, allowing corruption to blossom, giving free reign to local despots and doing deals with the Taliban.
Although there are 41 candidates in the fray, there are two serious contenders Ashraf Ghani, a former Finance Minister and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, former Foreign Minister.
Although Mr. Karzai looks like retaining the presidency, whether he will be allowed a free run of Afghanistan is a question. The US wants to install Zalmay Khalizad as a sort of overseer/governor in the Karzai Government. There is also an effort to get Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah together, that could, say optimists, tilt the balance.
A poll conducted by the US-funded International Republican Institute showed Karzai winning 44% of the vote, with his main challenger, Abdullah Abdullah winning 26%. Though opinion polls put the incumbent, Hamid Karzai ahead of his two serious challengers, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, a Tajik and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, a Pashtun if opinion poll is to be believed Mr. Karzai is unlikely to win a clear majority, i.e. more than 50 per cent votes. This will require a run-off and there are fears in the Karzai camp that in the event of a run-off his two rivals may join hands to beat him in the final race. He is afraid that all those opposed to him even if there are contradictions among them, will come together to oust him politically. The other fear is that the Taliban warlords would disrupt the polling. They have already given a call for a boycott and threatened to kill those who vote.
What is of greater concern is that Karzai has lost the confidence of President Obama. Mr. Karzai who won elections in 2004 was a favourite of the Bush administration, but the Obama administration does not like him much. High on misgovernance and corruption, his actions, appear to have fuelled the Taliban insurgency resulting in a deteriorating Security environment. In contrast, Ashraf Ghani Ahmedzai is an urban educated Pashtun elite He is very close to Washington and US might persuade Karzai to give him a good post if he wins. Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, an ophthalmologist, who is fighting as an independent, was one of the key trusted lieutenants of Ahmed Shah Masood, with a strong following north of Kabul. A favourite of Richard Holbrooke, Abdullah's closeness to Masood is his weakness as well as his strength. The Tajiks love him for it, but the Pashtuns dislike him. Son of a Panjshiri father and a Pashtun mother, he has worked the Panjshiri-Tajik networks well. He has no known base in the south and the East of the country. Many expect he will be the dominant candidate in the Tajik areas of North-Eastern Afghanistan.
Mr. Karzai has, however won over Qasim Fahim, a key Panjshiri leader with whom he was at odds until recently. He has made him a vice presidential running mate. Karzai himself is a Durrani Pashtun from Kandahar in the south of the country where he has networked well with community elders and tribal leaders of northern Afghanistan, home to the Hazras, Uzbeks, Torkomens and, of course, the Tajiks, Afghanistan's most numerous ethnic community after the Pashtuns.
Observes believe its, necessary for Mr. Karzai, to win at least one of the two contenders to his side and ensure that the Taliban fighters allow the polls to be held. Mr. Karzai is reported to have sent his emissaries to his fellow Pashtun contender, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, offering him an important position equivalent to the post of Prime Minister if he withdraws from the race in his favour. At the same time, Karzai is wrapping up a series of secret ceasefire deals with Taliban commanders to ensure that voting can go ahead in Afghanistan's volatile South. The prospect of the South being unable to vote has worried the Afghan President who needs the votes of his fellow Pashtuns, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, to ensure victory without having to go to a second round run-off. If the surge allows more citizens in the East and the South to vote, it will enhance the credibility of Mr. Karzai's win.
Mr. Karzai is using the good offices of his controversial older half brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai to reach out to Taliban commanders to agree to pull back on election day and allow the Afghan army and police to secure the polling centres. Ahmed Wali Karzai is a powerful leader in Kandahar and is alleged to be involved in drug trafficking, a claim he denies.
The Taliban have meanwhile escalated a campaign of threats and intimidation ahead of the Presidential election, warning voters in mosques and through leaflets and radio announcements not to vote or face "strong punishments."
A successful election is critical to the efforts of the Afghan government as well as of the Obama Administration to demonstrate that after seven years of war progress is being made towards securing peace and stability. But, the deteriorating security situation and the rise in the number of Taliban attacks may, rob Mr. Karzai the credibility of an election victory. With the arrival of over 17,000 more US troops and the US Marines launching a 10,000 strong offensive called Operation Khanjar, the conflict looks like escalating in the coming days. July has been the bloodiest month for the Nato forces, with 67 soldiers dying, the highest since they invaded Afghanistan in 2001. Nato casualties have already touched 223 in the first seven months of this year, compared to 294 in all of last year. The number of security incidents - increased from 566 per month in 2007 to 741 in 2008, and to 70 in just the first five months of this year, according to the UN Secretary General's quarterly report to the Security Council.
The elections are therefore, critical for not only Mr. Karzai and the US, but also for the security of the region beyond Afghanistan. This is particularly so for Pakistan which is fighting its own battle with the Taliban. Increase in Taliban activity is Afghanistan spells for Pakistan as well.
