India News Online » News Analysis » Indian Politics » 

Karnataka Verdict : BJP wins, big setback for Congress

	May 26, 2008

In a big setback for the Congress, which was hoping to revive its fortunes in Karnataka in the run up to next year’s Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has stormed to power in the state. This would be the first time the BJP would be heading a state govern¬ment in the south, not taking into account its brief Yeddyurappa-led government which lasted only a few days.



Of the total 224 Assembly seats, the BJP has won or is leading in 111 seats, just two short of an absolute majority. With four Independents deciding to support the party, the first ever BJP government in the south is expected to be sworn in on May 28. Party sources said B.S. Yeddyurappa will take oath as Chief Minister.



The election process will be completed by May 28 by which time the Election Commission is expected to notify the constitu¬tion of the state’s 13th legislative Assembly.





Congress improves position, JD(S) routed



The Congress has won 78 seats, which, though an improvement over its tally in the last Assembly, is poor consolation for the party as it has been unable to stop the victory march of the BJP in the south. The Janata Dal (Secular) of former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda has won or is leading in 28 seats, about half its strength in the dissolved Assembly. Others and Independents have won seven seats.





Victory, a turning point : Advani



BJP’s prime-ministerial candidate Lal Krishan Advani has described his party’s victory in Karnataka as a vote against the Centre’s policies and said the election results showed the shape of things to come in the run up to next year’s Lok Sabha elec¬tions.



Upbeat after the party’s spectacular showing, Advani said the “triumph in Karnataka will prove to be a turning point” and reiterated that 2008 is going to be a ‘year of change’ in nation¬al politics.



“This geographical expansion of the BJP, and the simultane¬ous shrinkage of the Congress party almost all over the country, shows the shape of things to come in the run-up to next Parlia¬mentary elections,” he said.



He also dubbed the poll victory as a verdict against the Congress party’s “politics of opportunism” and the JD(S)’s “politics of betrayal”.



Keen to target the Congress-led Centre, Advani said the Congress party would be indulging in “self-delusion” if it thought that the people of Karnataka were influenced by local factors.



“The UPA government’s utter failure to control the prices of essential commodities, its soft and compromising policy on ter¬rorism, and its insensitivity towards the plight of kisans have angered the common people all over the country,” he said.



This, Advani said, was evident from the Congress defeat in almost all the Assembly elections held since it came to power at the Centre in May 2004.



“I have no doubt that the BJP’s triumph in Karnataka will prove to be a turning point comparable to the quantum increase in parliamentary strength that the BJP achieved in 1989,” he re¬marked.



The BJP had won 86 seats in the 1989 Lok Sabha elections, up from only two in 1984.





Congress on slippery electoral road



After the saffron surge in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, now the BJP’s successful foray in Karnataka has rung the alarm bells for the Congress ahead of a series of elections before the next Lok Sabha polls.



The Grand Old Party is on a slippery electoral road in the last one year and the defeat in Bangalore is a jolt ahead of the Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi in the next few months.



Congress leaders are now admitting that a variety of factors did them in which includes price rise, terrorism as also the failure to get their act together.



The failure to project a chief ministerial candidate also went against the Congress. There was a sizable section in the party at the Central level, which wanted such projection of a CM candidate, but the idea was given up due to too many claimants.



In the Congress, there were too many senior leaders desirous of the top job and S M Krishna’s return to active politics after quitting his gubernatorial post in Maharashtra probably made the race bitter.



All senior state leaders tried to grab as many seats as possible for their supporters and basically concentrated on those seats only, party insiders said.





All of us are answerable for the defeat: Krishna



Congress leader S M Krishna owned moral responsibility for the party’s defeat in Karnataka and said it would have to rework its strategy while being in the Opposition.



“All of us together are answerable for the defeat. I had said earlier that if Congress is defeated, I, as chief campaign manager, will own up the responsibility. I own up the respon¬sibility,” he said while commenting on the party’s electoral performance in Karnataka.



“I congratulate the BJP on securing a near simple majority. I wish them well,” said Krishna, who resigned as Maharashtra Governor ahead of the elections to take up the campaigner’s role.



On suggestions about disunity and dissidence in the Con¬gress, Krishna was dismissive about it, saying such reports usually surface during elections.





Exit polls presented different scenarios



Earlier, exit polls conducted after the third and final phase of the Assembly elections on Thursday, May 22, presented different scenarios. An exit poll conducted by CNN-IBN projected a hung assembly with the Congress as the single largest party. NDTV presented two different possibilities - a fractured mandate as also of the BJP securing a majority on its own.



As it has turned out, the verdict is fractured, but the Congress is not the single largest party. Rather, the BJP has registered its best ever performance in the state, getting over 110 seats in the 224 member Assembly.



The exit polls and the election results, as they have come out, create more doubts about the efficacy of exit and opinion polls in a diverse country and polity like India’s.





Nearly 65 per cent voting overall



About 64.72 per cent of 4.07 crore voters exercised their franchise during the three-phase polling. This is slightly lower than the overall 64.9 per cent polling witnessed during the last Assembly elections held in 2004.



While about 67 per cent voters turned out at the polling booths in the first phase, 67.8 per cent exercised their fran¬chise in the second phase. The third phase witnessed a lower turnout, estimated at around 62 per cent.



The elections were marred by an illicit liquor tragedy in which nearly 200 people in different parts of Karnataka and neighbouring areas of Tamil Nadu died. The illicit liquor was allegedly supplied by a political party to woo voters.