One may argue whether the BJP is a gainer or loser in the Assembly by-
elections held this month, but there is no doubt that the Congress, which heads the United Progressive Alliance government at the Centre, has lost in almost all the states where by-elections took place. Voters in Assembly by-elections are often said to be swayed by local factors while exercising their franchise. But it would be foolhardy for the Congress to ignore the overall trend especially when Assembly elections in three states ruled by the party are less than a month away.
The first jolt for the Congress came on Monday, Sept. 14, when the results of by-elections held in Gujarat, Uttarakhand and Madhya Pradesh were announced. The first shocker was in Gujarat where the BJP won five out of the total seven seats for which elections were held. Of the seven seats, six were held earlier by the Congress. In Uttarakhand, the BJP retained the only seat which was in contention. The win helped the party to secure a majority in the state Assembly on its own. The two seats for which by-elections were held in Madhya Pradesh were shared by the Congress and the BJP. The BJP, the ruling party in the state, wrested one seat from the Congress, increasing its tally in the state Assembly to 144.
The second shock for the Congress last week came on Thursday, Sept. 17, when the party lost both the seats in the national capital territory Assembly for which by-elections took place. One seat went to the BJP while Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD won the prestigious Okhla seat, its maiden win in Delhi. The RJD had more to cheer about that day as its combine with Ramvilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party emerged as top dog in the Assembly by-elections for 18 seats in Bihar. The Lalu-Paswan alliance bagged eight seats while the ruling Janata Dal United-BJP coalition could win only six seats. Two seats went to the Congress and one to the Bahujan Samaj Party. An Independent also won. It was definitely a setback for the Nitish Kumar-led coalition government as its strategy of wooing the most backward among the other backward classes appears to have misfired. The combine also appears to have lost the support of the upper castes despite the BJP being a member of the coalition.
There was poor voter turnout in the Assembly by-elections and some may argue that this detracts from the significance of the results. But this is not really so as it also shows up the inability of the losers to get their voters to come to the polling booths. This may not significantly change even when regular elections are held; say for the Bihar Assembly next year.
While it is difficult to read the mind of the voters and say whether they will vote for change in the Assembly elections coming up next month in Maharashtra, Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh, the warning signals are there, especially for the Congress as it is the ruling party in all the three states. The Congress-Nationalist Congress Party coalition in Maharashtra will be battling anti-incumbency as it has been in power in the state for ten years. Recent surveys have shown that more than the 26/11 terror strikes, the voters are more influenced by bread and butter issues like price rise and civic amenities. On both these counts, the record of the coalition has not been outstanding. The price rise is becoming an important issue all across the country despite the Government's claim that the rate of inflation has been hovering at zero level for the past few months. The people are more worried at the rise in the prices of food items and essential commodities than the low prices of other commodities included in the wholesale prices index.
Because of drought, farmers have been having a tough time. The spectre of famine looms over the horizon and there has been no end to suicides by farmers in the drought-hit areas of the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra.
Haryana has also been hit by drought though the situation is not as bad as in other states because of greater dependence on irrigation from canals and ground water. The Congress hopes to repeat its Lok Sabha performance in the coming Assembly elections, especially as it is again facing a divided opposition. But the BJP and Bhajan Lal's Haryana Janhit Congress are making a last minute effort to forge an electoral alliance for the Assembly elections. If they succeed, they would be able to pose a big challenge to the Congress. In any case, the Congress would not be able to have a walkover, as it has been hoping for.
The Assembly by-election results may be a mixed bag for the BJP, as it has lost in Bihar, but there is a positive for the party there also. After biting the dust in the by-elections, the Janata Dal United is likely to be less assertive in its attitude towards the BJP and may not challenge the saffron party's leadership of the National Democratic Alliance. But the JDU-BJP coalition in Bihar will have to act fast and come up with a response to the emerging situation in the state.
The Congress may also have to re-examine its options in Bihar. The party's strategy of going it alone worked in Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections, but failed in Bihar. On the eve of the Assembly by-elections, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ramvilas Paswan had sent feelers to the Congress about forging an alliance to take on the JDU-BJP combine, but the Congress spurned the offer. The Congress tactic of going it alone is not working in Bihar as it is in a very weak position in the state. The party may have to think of again entering into an alliance with the RJD and the LJP to retain its relevance in the state. In the short run, there may be no option but to follow such a line. Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi has already said that he is not opposed in principle to forging alliances with other parties where there is a need for that. At the same time, he said that the basic policies of the Congress cannot be given a go by. Within that parameter, it may be possible to do business with parties like the RJD and the LJP.
The Indian voter is known for his inscrutable ways and it is difficult to read his mind. But the message from the Assembly by-election results is for all to see. The Congress as well as the BJP and other parties would do well to ponder over the by-elections outcome and mould their strategy accordingly. The voter cannot be taken for granted.
