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It is open season in Indian politics |
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With the most crucial phase of the general elections now going on, it is the game of retaining allies and winning new ones, which will decide the winner. Some indication of which way the wind is blowing will come on May 13, the day of the fifth and final phase of polling, to be followed by the exit polls by various television channels, which hopefully will give an indication of how the three major combines in the electoral fray will be faring in the world’s largest democratic exercise. But this will not end the suspense as opinion and exit polls do not have a very credible record in the Indian context and have often been proved wrong by the final election results. May 16, when the Lok Sabha election results come out, will write the final word on the forecasts by pollsters as well as the claims of the major political parties and their leaders that they are on the way to power at the Centre.
Even before the declaration of the results, the major political combines and their principals are positioning themselves to make the best out of the people’s verdict. And the message which is coming out of different camps is that it is time to make new friends, cutting across ideological considerations, to make a credible shot at either retaining power or wresting power from the present ruling combine.
Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi’s news conference in New Delhi last week, where he sought to reach out to rivals in other parties and alliances has to be seen in this context. By talking of the Congress sharing common ground with other combines like the Left, the Janata Dal (United) of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the Telugu Desam headed by former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu, Rahul Gandhi has made it clear that his party is open to doing business with them despite political differences. Of course, the Rahul ploy has not been an outstanding success. He has been rebuffed by those to whom he tried to reach out. And, the existing allies like the RJD of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Trinamul Congress of Mamata Banerjee are looking with suspicion at future moves by the Congress. They fear that they may be dumped by the Congress if it manages to secure support from old or new allies with greater numbers in the new Lok Sabha. In Tamil Nadu also, Karunanidhi’s DMK has reacted coldly to Rahul Gandhi’s remarks, which it thinks is a move towards building bridges with Jayalalithaa’s All India Anna DMK.
To end the unease in its existing allies, the Congress has launched an operation to mollify the Trinamul Congress, the DMK, the RJD and Ramvilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, which are suspicious about Rahul Gandhi’s remarks. The damage control exercise may tide over the crisis in the short run, but the allies are going to look carefully at the future moves of the national party.
The Congress is not alone in trying to reach out to new allies. The BJP, which heads the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the CPI(M), which is promoting the Third Front-Left combine, are not far behind in this respect. Top BJP leaders have been saying openly that they are in touch with regional parties in different combines for getting the numbers required to form the next government at the Centre after the election results come out.
The CPI(M)-led Left parties are leaving no stone unturned to get the support of more parties for the Third Front. CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat has been pro-active in this regard, meeting leaders of regional parties for gaining their support. His meeting with Biju Janata Dal president and Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik last week is a clear pointer towards this. There are reports that he requested Patnaik to use his good offices to reach out to Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar, who is at present a member of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), but has not been coy about his prime ministerial ambitions. The only spanner in Karat’s game plan to give the country a non-BJP, non-Congress government is the likelihood of the Left’s strength in the Lok Sabha being cut by nearly one-half in the elections.
The Congress as well as the BJP is saying that it will emerge as the single largest party in the new Lok Sabha. Congress leaders are saying that the party’s strength may go up to as much as 180 in the Lok Sabha, while the BJP is looking at a target of 160 seats. The voter’s verdict will become clear only on May 16 and till then, politicians will continue to play in the air about their likely prospects and likely new allies.
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