|
It is advantage Congress, but UPA may lose |
 |
The Manmohan Singh Government’s success in making Pakistan buckle down to international pressure and admit that the terrorists involved in the Mumbai terror strikes came from its shores is a big plus for the Congress, the leading light of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), as it gets ready to launch its campaign for returning to power in the Lok Sabha elections to be held by May this year. The Congress and the Government, which have already described as a “positive” development Pakistan’s admission that elements in that country were involved in the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, may well project the move as a success of India’s coercive diplomacy. The development will enable the Congress to say that there is no truth in the main opposition party, the BJP’s charge that the UPA Government has been soft on terrorism.
The BJP is in a quandary how to turn the situation around as not to far back, the party was seeking to base its election campaign on the “soft policy” of the Congress-led government on terror and how it was damaging the country, weakening internal security and leaving the country virtually friendless in the international arena. But the way the situation has developed, it would be very difficult for the BJP to make its charges stick. This is because it is apparent to even a casual observer of the international scenario that Pakistan was forced to admit the role of its citizens in the Mumbai terror attack after not only the United States, but also most other countries of the world put immense pressure on Islamabad not to continue in its denial mode, which is its standard practice, whenever faced with the charge that it is sponsoring terror in neighbouring countries, mainly India and Afghanistan
There are reports that Pakistan was forced to end its dilly-dallying on the Mumbai attacks after a reported threat from the United States to cut off aid if it did not accept the reality of the “Pakistan hand” in the 26/11 carnage. It is significant that Islamabad’s volteface came a day after the visit of the US special envoy Richard Holbrooke. Though it was officially said that the Mumbai strikes were not discussed during Holbrooke’s talks with Pakistani officials, it appears that a phone call from US President Barrack Obama to his Pakistan counterpart Asif Ali Zardari on Wednesday, Feb. 11, did the trick.
Whatever may be the reality of what is behind Pakistan’s change of tactics, it is to be hoped that Islamabad will now stick to the course it has adopted and go the whole hog to punish elements in the country responsible for the Mumbai terror strikes.
With the Mumbai terror strikes and its aftermath bringing to the fore the issues of national security and stability at the Centre, the Congress is poised to gain at the cost of the BJP and also several of the third front constituents in the coming Lok Sabha elections. The party’s gains will increase further with the depletion of the middle class votebank of the BJP. This was apparent in the Assembly elections in the national capital, Delhi. Ironically, it is the Congress and not the BJP, which may gain from the delimitation of the Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies carried out last year, which increased the number of urban dominated seats.
The Congress has also tried to reach out to the people living in the rural areas by carrying out the loan waiver for farmers and implementation of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. But how far the impact of the NREGS will be there remains to be seen as a large quantum of funds allocated for such programmes in the past never reached the intended beneficiaries.
While the Congress may gain in the Lok Sabha elections, the same cannot be said for many of the important partners of the party in and outside the UPA. In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party can retain its seats in the Lok Sabha only if it is able to work out an optimal alliance or seat-sharing with the Congress. Otherwise it will be Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party all the way to the Lok Sabha from the country’s most populous state - Uttar Pradesh - which sends eighty members to the lower house. In Bihar, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and in Tamil Nadu, Karunanidhi’s DMK will be hard put to repeat their 2004 performance. The Congress can, however, offset some of the losses in West Bengal, if it is able to work out an effective alliance with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress. In such a scenario, the Left parties will be the worst hit. In any case, it is highly unlikely that they would be able to retain their strength of about 60 in the next Lok Sabha.
Faced with the virtual certainty that its present partners in the UPA, as constituted at present, will not be of much source of strength in the Lok Sabha to be formed after the general elections, the Congress appears to be already looking for new post-poll allies. But the party is not alone in the game. The BJP, which has been left with very few allies, which can be counted on one’s fingers, is also looking for possible new supporters in the post-poll scenario.
The CPI(M), realising that the third alternative it is trying to build, may not emerge as a major force, has said that it can again do business with the Congress, but it will never accept any Government headed by the Congress. This leaves the field open for a variety of options: that is why perhaps a number of prime ministerial hopefuls are coming up in various parties, some of whom do not have even ten members in the present Lok Sabha. A cat and mouse game, with no holds barred, may be seen both before and after the elections.
|
