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India-US nuclear stalemate – Yet another futile exercise |
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Harjit Singh
The claim made by US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns, before he landed in New Delhi for three-days of hard-nosed talks, that convergence had been reached on 90 per cent of the 123 agreement on Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation has proved to be hollow. He returned home without an agreement in his pocket because on none of the four issues at the centre of the storm, India climbed-down. Although Indian delegation leader Shiv Shanker Menon said at the end of the talks in his solo press conference that the talks were constructive, the fact is that Burns left New Delhi without the ritual of a joint press conference, the explanation for which was that he had to catch a flight. His schedule could have been drawn up in such a way that he had at least a few minutes to appear before the Press.
President Bush has his own limitations on accommodating the Indian demands, especially on the issue of reprocessing of spent fuel and continuation of the supply of nuclear material even if it tests a nuclear device. Given the fact that both Houses of the US Congress are now in the Opposition hand, a deal is not likely to materialize in the near future. It is quite possible that Bush is now reconciled to leaving the issue to be dealt with by a new incumbent after the elections in the US. For Dr. Manmohan Singh, making any departure from the commitments he made in Parliament that India would accept nothing outside the two agreements that he reached with Bush, one in Washington and another in New Delhi last year, is very difficult. At a time when elections are just two years away and the Congress Party is facing defeat after defeat in the Assembly elections, he would not like to give another handle to the Opposition to beat the UPA with. The Left is already in a sullen mood over the UPA Government ‘falling to American pressure’ on the nuclear issue and has indirectly warned that the Government should expect no support from it if the Prime Minister signs away India’s sovereignty and independence on the issue of pursuing the nuclear research programme.
Now that officials from the two countries have failed to crack the hard nut, it is left for the leaders of the two countries to make a political intervention. In this context, the invitation to US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to visit New Delhi next month is not without significance. The visit itself will come after President Bush and Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh meet in Berlin, Germany next month. It goes without saying, the nuclear issue would be on the top of their agenda. They are likely to discuss how to make the agreement a sweet pill for both countries and draft the text of the agreement in such a way that it is seen as a victory for both sides. On the crucial nuclear processing issue, sources say, the US has suggested a formula similar to its 123 agreement with China concluded in 1985 which provides for the two sides entering into consultations and a mutually acceptable arrangement in the event the country needs to reprocess spent fuel.
Whatever the final shape of the agreement, it is not easy to fill up the gaps that dog the nuclear deal. India is sticking to its right to reprocessing and the US is saying it cannot go beyond the US Atomic Energy Act under which any country buying or using US nuclear equipment or fuel has to get American consent prior to reprocessing. Even if an agreement is eventually hammered out, the next step of receiving the nod of the Nuclear Suppliers Group [NSG] is also not easy. While some countries back India, others do not and China is determined to ensure that Pakistan also receives exemptions from the NSG guidelines if these are offered to India.
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