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India-US nuclear deal – little hope for revival |
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The Left parties met on May 23 to further discuss their response towards an India-specific nuclear safeguards agreement being negotiated by the Government with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The next meeting of the Left-UPA Joint Committee on the nuclear deal is scheduled for May 28. The Left have demanded a copy of the draft agreement Department of Atomic Energy officials negotiated with the IAEA on safeguards. The Government has, however, not given the Left the text so far. CPI[M] General Secretary Prakash Karat said after the meeting, they had not yet completed their discussions with the Government on the IAEA safeguards. They had not been given the text of the draft agreement and were studying whatever they could get hold of.
Karat said that at the last Joint Committee meeting, they were told by the Government that there was a shortage of uranium and reactors were working at 50 per cent of their level of production.
Whatever the Left parties may say about studying the draft agreement closely before giving their response, the nuclear deal, which would have transformed the relationship between India and the US in a big way, is on the ventilator, lying practically dead. And there is hardly any hope for its revival in the immediate future. The US Ambassador to India, David Mulford, said in Chennai the other day, the nuclear deal may not be dead, but it is “down to the last day”.
Lately, the US has been conveying to India in Washington and through American visitors to New Delhi that a green signal from India before the end of June can still save the deal. Inquiries made in New Delhi, however, make it clear that the Indian Government now seems to have resigned itself to the fate the nuclear deal has come to meet, but regards it as a great opportunity missed.
Political observers say, the planned May 28 meeting of the UPA-Left Committee on the nuclear issue is certain to be unproductive as the earlier rounds of discussions with them. The May 28 parleys may perhaps be the last in the series of talks the Manmohan Singh Government will have to persuade the Left to give up its resistance to the nuclear deal. The May 28 meeting has been set up so that the Left may agree to the idea of India negotiating the nuclear safeguards agreement with the Vienna-based IAEA at least. A safeguards agreement with the IAEA would have cleared a major hurdle in the deal’s passage. The safeguards agreement with the IAEA would have left only two more stages to cross. One is an agreement with the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group on the supply of nuclear fuel and material. This, in turn, would have pushed the deal into the lap of the US Congress which is re-assembling in July. The Bush Administration has been assuring India that once the agreement is arrived with the IAEA, it will ensure a safe passage through the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group and the US Congress meeting in July.
For the Bush Administration, the timetable is important. The July session of the US Congress may be the last where such an important piece of legislation can be passed. With the term of the Bush Administration coming to a close early next year, it will be difficult for it to persuade Congress to pass the necessary legislation in its lameduck session early next year.
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