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India’s restive neighbourhood |
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Harjit Singh
India is going through an experience of what the resident of the biggest house in an area may well find himself in, caught up with smaller neighbours fighting among themselves. In the neighbourhood that is the sub-continent, India finds itself surrounded by countries that are going through a serious bout of instability.
In the north, in Nepal, though a truce between the Seven Party Alliance and the Maoists, who disagree on more issues than they agree on despite their cooperation to oust the King from power, has been extended by another three months, there is little advance towards ending the crisis that followed the launch of the Maoist armed struggle. The biggest irritant is the issue of arms management, in other words, putting the Maoist arms beyond use under UN management. Given the differences between the two over the fate of the monarchy and the Maoist eye on power after the constituent assembly elections, Nepal faces a future of uncertainty and instability. The rise of Maoists cannot be viewed with ease in New Delhi because of their links with Naxalites in India and Prachanda’s demand for the release of three of his top aides now in Indian custody. The coming visit of Parchanda to New Delhi later this month and by his hour long talks with the Indian Ambassador in Kathmandu during the week are welcome developments but given the Maoist record of hard bargaining, India could reach peace with them only on their terms. With the Maoists likely to enjoy a huge political leverage in the Government, India’s relations with the Himalayan Kingdom may see many worrying upsets.
On the eastern flank, a political crisis is facing Bangladesh where two Begums are locked in a battle of wits. As provided for in the Constitution, Prime Minister Khaleda Zia has resigned three months before the scheduled elections in January but not before ensuring that a pro-BNP dispensation in the caretaker Government remains. The Awami League chief and leader of the 14-party alliance has given seven more days to President Iajuddin Ahmed to meet her demands failing which she will take the battle to the streets of Dhaka. Begum Zia named former Justice Hasan as the caretaker administrator until elections which was opposed by Sheikh Hasina because of his track record of being a loyalist of the former Prime Minister. Though Hasan has decided not to accept the job because of the opposition by Sheikh Hasina, she is annoyed at President Ahmed’s decision to himself take up the post instead of going by the constitutional arrangement of naming a Judge next to Hasan. Hasina also views President Ahmed as a Begum Zia loyalist under whose interim administration, free and fair elections cannot be held, more so because the President has allowed Chief Election Commissioner M.A. Aziz to continue on his post. His removal is one of the major demands of Sheikh Hasina . Already, some two dozen people have died in the ongoing violence and if the President does not meet Hasina’s demands by the deadline, Bangladesh could face into a bloody period before elections.
And if that were not enough to make the subcontinent a rickety place, in Sri Lanka, matters seem to be returning to the “usual” conflict-ridden state with talks between the LTTE and the Sri Lankan Government breaking down. The Geneva talks between the LTTE and the Government have broken down on the issue of the reopening of the A-9 national highway which links Jaffna peninsula with the rest of the country. The fighting has resumed once again and Sri Lankan planes are pounding LTTE positions in the hope that the closure of the highway has starved the LTTE of its supplies. The failure of the Geneva talks, together with the Supreme Court verdict on demerger of the North and the East mean that there is not even the remotest possibility of the two warring sides finding any common ground to maintain peace.
Even in distant neighbourhood, Afghanistan, the upsurge in Taliban violence, the NATO operations, Pakistan signing peace deal with pro-Taliban tribesmen on the one hand and attacking a madrasa on the other, as well as the Musharraf-Karzai spat over the issue of Pakistan’s support for anti-Kabul forces, could not be overlooked by India which has emerged as an important donor of the Government in Kabul.
India incidentally is the only country in the Indian subcontinent which has common borders with all the neighbours. Its relations with many of the smaller neighbours have remained far from normal. As of now, but for Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka, it has either border disputes with other neighbours or they accuse India of a big brother attitude. The consequence of turmoil in its small neighbours has been varied for India – refugee overflow, trans-border movement of terrorists, drugs and guns,. While India has an open border with Nepal and illegal inflow of people from Bangladesh is an accepted fact, proximity with Sri Lanka across the 40 kilometre Palk Strait which can be crossed by even rickety boats, makes India a safee haven for all kinds of people who feel pressure in their own country. Fencing of borders with Bangladesh has not helped. There have been demands that India take a pro-active role in Sri Lanka, side with Sheikh Hasina of Awami League in the coming elections because of her pro-Indian stance and extend a hand of friendship towards the Maoists in Nepal because if India wants to assume a bigger role which it aspires to, like China, by dint of its economic strength, it will have to be in peace with its neighbours. With Pakistan already eroding its military and economic might and China in no mood for an early resolution of the border dispute, an era of animosity with the smaller neighbours will not be helpful.
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