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Hopes on Vajpayee-Musharraf summit Tough bargaining on Kashmir

	July 02, 2001

Preparations for the summit meeting in Agra of the newly-appointed Pakistan President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, and Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee have been put at top gear. Three luxury hotels in Agra - Amar Vilas of the Oberoi group Mughal Sheraton and Jaypee Palace - have been shortlisted to put up Gen. Musharraf and his delegation as well as to hold the summit meeting. Initially, it was decided that soon after his arrival in New Delhi, he will be flown to Agra, but now that he has assumed the charge of President, he is officially the guest of President K.R Narayanan. So, a full July 14 has been earmarked for his Delhi engagements which will include his ceremonial welcome in the forecourt of the Rashtrapati Bhavan, a call on President Narayanan, and banquets by the President at Rashtrapati Bhavan and another by the Prime Minister at Hyderabad House. In between, he will visit an old haveli in the Daryaganj Area in old Delhi where he spent his childhood. It is reported that first Goa was chosen for the summit venue, but both because Mrs.Musharraf was keen to visit Agra and also because summit at a far-off Goa would not have created the necessary pulse and drama of a summit, it was decided to hold the talks in the city of Taj Mahal. From Agra, he will fly to Ajmer for a visit to the Dargah of Khawaza Moinuddin Chishti, and then onwards to home.

Before the summit in Agra, a two-day meeting of over 200 social scientists from India and Pakistan is being organised in new Delhi by the Indian Council of Social Science Research. The seminar, a brainchild of ICSSR Chairman, M.L. Sondhi, has been blessed by Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. Prof sondhi, a former Lok Sabha Member of the BJP, who took the initiative of inviting social scientists from Pakistan, feels that if the five-decade cycle of hatred and animosity between the two South Asian neighbours had to be broken, an extra effort beyond the realm of officialdom was the need of the hour.

An advance Pakistani team comprising officials from protocol division, security and publicity department, will be visiting India early next month to finalise the finer details of the visit. The Pakistan High Commissioner, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, held preliminary discussions on June 25 with the External Affairs Ministry’s chief protocol officer, Mr Manbir Singh, on the protocol arrangements for Musharraf’s visit. Qazi has also been having consultations with Indian political leaders ahead of his leader’s visit. He held talks with the Samajwadi Party leaders, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Amar Singh on June 25. The Intelligence agencies have prepared a detailed list of persons belonging to several fundamental organisations, a number of which are based in Jammu and Kashmir, to be taken into preventive custody before the scheduled visit of Gen. Musharraf.



No meeting with Hurriyat leaders

India has made it clear to Pakistan that it would not relish the idea of Gen. Musharraf meeting a delegation of All_party Hurriyat Conference [APHC] when the Pakistan High Commissioner, Ashraf Jahangir Qazi, hosts a “high tea party” in his honour at the Pakistan Embassy. New Delhi has made it clear that such a meeting would not be conducive to the summit and therefore, an invitation to the Hurriyat to “high tea” should be dropped from Musharraf’s itinerary. Despite India making any number of indirect hints that a tete-a-tete between Musharraf and the Hurriyat leaders would not be welcome, Pakistan had persisted in hinting at a possible meeting. Musharraf himself had talked about it off and on.

A senior official at the Pakistan Foreign Office said: “It is our prerogative to invite people of our choice. India cannot forbid the Pakistan mission from inviting whoever it wishes to the embassy. However, senior government sources said that if Musharraf met the Hurriyat, the atmosphere for the summit talks could be spoiled. Officials are of the view that it would be unwise for Musharraf to begin his first day in India on a controversial note. The JKLF leader, Yasin Malik, has accused Pakistan with “ditching” Kashmiris by agreeing to hold talks with Mr. Vajpayee without the involvement of the people of Kashmir.

A Pakistan Urdu newspaper Jang, has said in a despatch that Gen. Musharraf would hold meetings with various delegations at the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi soon after reception ceremonies and top on the list would be the interaction with the Hurriyat leaders. In a significant move, the 23-party APHC has in separate letters to the two leaders formally sought meetings with both Prime Minister Vajpayee and Gen. Musharraf. The Chief of Hurriyat conference, Abdul Ghani Bhatt has denied that the letters to Mr. Vajpayee and Mr. Musharraf for an audience had been sent as a “damage control” exercise as both the countries had rejected the idea of Hurriyat’s participation in the Kashmir talks.” Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman has said, involvement of the Hurriyat Conference during the coming visit of Gen. Musharraf was a “non-issue”.

In a significant concession, the Government of India allowed former chairman of APHC chief, Mirwaiz Maulvi Omar Farooq to go to Mali to attend a meeting of the OIC Foreign Ministers. But, new Delhi has dismissed the interventionist approach of the OIC into India’s internal affairs Referring to the demand reportedly made at the OIC meet in the Mali capital that a special representative of the organisation be allowed to participate in the discussions on Kashmir, the spokeswoman, Ms Narupama Rao, dismissed the demand.



No outside pressure

A Pakistani newspaper, Dawn quoted Gen. Musharraf as having told a meeting with various newspaper editors that the US pressure and the attacks by Kashmiri militants had forced India to invite him to New Delhi. The paper said, Gen. Musharraf agreed with some editors that Vajpayee could not have invited him for talks had there been no pressure from the international community. However, after India expressed its annoyance and the Pakistan Government denied the report, the Pakistan newspaper retracted the report. Foreign Ministry asserted on June 27 that it was purely India’s decision to invite Gen. Musharraf for the summit. “We do not buckle under the international pressure”, spokesperson said.



Issues other than Kashmir

Although there will be no structured agenda because Gen. Musharraf has conveyed to New Delhi that the talks should be open ended, Gen. Musharraf has been holding talks with a cross-section of the people, including politicians, political parties, editors and leaders of religious groups while Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar chaired an inter-ministerial meeting to finalise the issues which are likely to be taken up at the delegation-level talks. Besides kashmir, the issues which will come up for discussion include bilateral trade, enhancement of cultural relations, fishermen’s problems and visa restrictions. India is also likely to seek MFN status from Pakistan. The other issue that figures high on Pakistan’s agenda is the 2627 Indo-Iran multi-billion dollar gas pipeline project which earn Pakistan a fee of $600 million for allowing the pipeline to pass through its territory.



Musharraf’s bid to reach national consensus : ARD boycott

The efforts of Gen. Musharraf to reach a national consensus on his visit to India received a setback on June 26 when the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy [ARD] decided to stay away from the “all-party meeting” called by him. The chief of the ARD, Nawab Nasrullah Khan, however, said in a statement that the boycott was not to oppose his visit to India, but to protest at the manner in which he took over as the President of Pakistan. The 16-member ARD, in fact, was left with no choice but announce the boycott after its two major constituents - the PPP and the MNL [Nawaz Sharif] declared their intention to stay away. PPP Deputy General Secretary said,Gen. Musharraf’s regime lacked the constitutional and popular mandate to settle vital national issues. Therefore, it is meaningless for the party to attend the meeting convened by him. Though the ARD constituents did not say it in so many words, they made it clear that they would not like to confer the legitimacy on Gen. Musharraf as the new President by attending the meeting. Both PPP and PML stand for talks with India for metamorphosing the climate of hatred and suspicion, but they do not want to associate themselves with Gen. Musharraf’s efforts after his elevation as President of Pakistan. They feel their support will amount to conferring legitimacy on the usurper of political power who, they have been demanding, must go to allow people’s elected representatives to take up the reins of government. Political observers say, this may upset whatever plans Musharaf entertained on forging a national perspective on the talks over the”core issue” of Kashmir. Though Pakistan’s political parties swear by the country’s right over Kashmir, they are hopefully divided when it comes to strategy.

While the ARD boycotted, at least 20 of the 24 politicians invited by Gen. Musharraf attended the All-Parties Conference in his quest for a a mandate for holding talks with India on all outstanding issues including Kashmir. With the leaders opposed to the military Government staying away, the all-party conference was a tame affair. No questions were raised on the controversy centred on the assumption of office of President by Gen. Musharraf last week. Unlike his earlier interactive session with Editors when Gen. Musharraf made a number of observations on his coming visit, he chose to be brief in his comments. He told political leaders that the Indian Prime Minister had invited him for a dialogue and that Kashmir would be the focus of his talks. The meeting which stretched to five hours saw the political leaders suggesting that Musharraf should go to discussions as a messenger of peace and try to impress upon the Indian leader that an early end to hostilities was in the best interest of the people of both countries.

In his separate meeting with the country’s top editors a day earlier on June 26, Gen. Musharraf said there was no question of any “secret understanding” at the summit meeting and reiterated he would go with an open mind. He said he had an open agenda focussing on Kashmir but was willing to discuss all other issues as well. He said, all routes of Pakistan for normalisation of relations with India are via kashmir. He said, he had spoken thrice over telephone to Prime Minister Vajpayee in the last two and half weeks.

Gen. Musharraf, at another meeting with the leaders from the part of Kashmir under its occupation told them that the bedrock of his talks with India would be the “aspirations” of Kashmiris. He told them on June 28 that the issue of Kashmir is not just an issue of territory but also a serious question of their rights to self-determination and other fundamental human rights. He told them that he would get a “framework” for resolving the Kashmir dispute accepted at the Agra summit with Prime Minister Vajpayee. The leaders from Pak-occupied Kashmir and representatives of some international Kashmir organisations as well as members of the all-Party Hurriyat Conference from PoK, called upon Gen. Musharraf to a adopt a “tough stand” on the kashmir issue in his talks with Mr. Vajpayee. At their two-hour talks with the new President of the country, the PoK leaders reiterated that the issue should be resolved in the light of the UN resolutions. They called for inclusion of Kashmiri leaders in the talks at a later stage. They said that since the bilateralism had failed to resolve the issue, Kashmiri people should be included in the talks.



JUI’s call for Kashmir ceasefire

In his exercise of holding consultations with a cross-section of the people, the major gain for Gen. Musharraf was that the Jamaat-e-Islami and the Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam [JUI], the two most influential cadre-based religious organisations responded to his consultations idea. While the Jamaat-e-Islami led by Qazi Hussain Ahmed,a maverick personality, has the largest following among all the religious formations, Maulana Fazlurrehman’s Jamiat exercises control over dreaded militant outfits like the Hizbul Mujahideen.

The leader of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam [JuI], Maulana Fazlur Rehman, has, however, caused a storm by calling for a total ceasefire in Kashmir both by the Indian Army and the separatist groups in order to give the Agra summit a chance to succeed. ironically, the JUI has been far from supportive of any peace process in the sub-continent It is a key backer of the Taliban and an ardent supporter of militant organisations waging war in Kashmir. But, Maulana Fazlur Rahman said in Islamabad after a meeting with Gen. Musharraf: “We propose that all guns, both of the Indian army and the Mujahideen be silenced for some time, to show flexibility during the summit in New Delhi next month.” Addressing a specially convened news conference, the JUI chief, Maulana Fazlur Rahman described the forthcoming summit as a “sensitive step towards a peaceful solution of the dispute on Kashmir.

Militant outfits based in Pakistan, however, rejected his appeal for a ceasefire. The Lashkar-e-toiba not only rejected the appeal, but also questioned his credentials in asking the militant outfits to cease fire. the Hizbul Mujahideen, which had experimented with a unilateral ceasefire for two weeks in July last year, also outrightly rejected the appeal and declared that Jehad in Kashmir would continue.

Within hours of Maulana’s announcement, there was a meeting of five religious groups at the residence of the Jamaat-e-Islami chief,Qazi Hussain Ahmed. His appeal has left some wondering if his faction was being used by a section of the Musharraf Government to gauge the reaction on the ground if Musharraf agrees to a ceasefire during talks with Mr.Vajpayee.

Citing JUI’s involvement in fomenting terrorism in Kashmir, Government of India has also rejected his call for a ceasefire. Foreign Ministry spokesperson, reacting to his appeal said, there is no question of reconsidering the cease-fire which was suspended by Prime Minister Vajpayee.

The Jamat-e-Islami chief,Qazi Hussain Ahmed, who at one time had questioned the legitimacy of Gen. Musharraf and had appealed to the Pakistan army to choose another General in his place to run the country, has said, he was not opposed to the summit. But, he is of the view that India should reconise kashmir as a disputed territory if it desired progress in the dialogue.



Kashmir tangle

The tricky question, in the talks would, of course, be how to break the hard nut of Kashmir. Although there would be no “structured agenda” for the Agra summit meeting between Prime Minister Vajpayee and the self-appointed President Pervez Musharraf to give the two leaders a free hand to discuss whatever they like, three themes are likely to dominate the talks. Theme one is about the kind of relationship that Gen. Musharraf envisages between India and Pakistan. The second is the nature of relationship between Kashmir and other issues in Indo-Pak relations. and final question is about Kashmir itself - of finding a way forward to resolve the long-standing dispute.

According to am expert on strategic affairs, C. Raja Mohan, for Mr. Vajpayee, the first issue is paramount. Is Pakistan willing to end its “compulsive hostility” towards India and move towards a normal, good neighbourly relationship? Is Pakistan ready to end its cross-border terrorism and stop using violence as a lever in its negotiations with India? If Gen. Musharraf is bold enough to answer “yes” to the two questions, Mr. Vajpayee may be more than willing to offer a significant “movement” in the Indian position over Kashmir that Gen. Musharraf wants so badly.

This brings to the second theme - the relationship between Kashmir and other issues in the “composite dialogue” between the two nations. Gen. Musharraf wants to show a certain special weight attached to kashmir in Indo-Pak talks. That will be his central objective in Agra. Gen. Musharraf would like Mr. Vajpayee to acknowledge the “centrality of Kashmir” in bilateral relations and offer a “mechanism that promises purposeful negotiations. In return, Gen. Musharraf promises to let the relationship develop rapidly on other fronts such as trade and people-to-people contacts. The third element of the dialogue will be on Kashmir itself: a dispute as complex and laden with emotional baggage as kashmir is unlikely to be settled in one conversation at Agra. The two leaders will not even attempt such an exercise: the aim instead will be on thinking about a road map. If they move closer to each other on the first two issues at Agra, Mr. Vajpayee and Gen. Musharraf will get their establishments to announce a series of confidence-building measures related to Kashmir. These steps, hopefully, will create an atmosphere in which final solutions to the dispute can be considered.

The essence of the bargain at Agra will be about finding a way to end Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism along with an Indian commitment to address the Kashmir dispute in a purposeful manner. If Mr. Vajpayee and gen. Musharraf can agree on the broad contours of such a deal, they will mandate the diplomats to negotiate the details.

Mr. Vajpayee has, of course, surprised Pakistanis by mellowing down even a military officer like Gen. Musharraf. But, Pakistan, despite its “admiration” for Vajpayee’s statesmanship, expects India as the bigger partner, to sacrifice something. Pakistani officials feel if India makes any suggestions as part of its sacrifice on the”core issue”, it would have “effective acceptability” to Pakistan as well as the Kashmiris. Musharraf has been talking about creating history, promising flexibility and open mind. However, the General insists that Kashmiris a core issue and must be addressed. If India is ready to discuss all aspects of the Kashmir problem, all other things can move forward, authoritative Pakistani sources said. India needs to change its mindset on kashmir. “If the entire discussion on Kashmir is confined to terrorism and declaring that Kashmir is an integral part of India, chances of a forward movement appear dim”, these sources insist.

Despite Musharraf’s hopes of engaging with India on every front, he is not willing to delink Kashmir from other issues. The General, it appears, is willing to go a long way in reining the militant groups operating from Pakistani soil. Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam chief, Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s call for a ceasefire during the summit is an indication that the situation in Kashmir could take a dramatic turn, if Pakistan wanted to cool off. The Maulana is the patron of many hardline jehadi groups and has close links with the Taliban. Officials in New Delhi are sure that Musharraf can contain the activities of Islamic fundamentalist organisations in Pakistan. Officials feel these so-called fundamentalists have only “a street powers” and if a person in power, who is also committed to his religion, gives logical arguments, the fundamentalists will fall in line. the General did make a mark when he asked religious leaders at a congregation not to make logical, rough statements like unfurling a Pakistani flag atop Red Fort in New Delhi.

Some informed sources say, ahead of the Agra summit, the two leaders will be working out a “package” on Kashmir which will include reduction of troops along the Line of Control and the Valley in direct response to reduction in terrorist violence, a firm schedule for continuing dialogue and a possible withdrawal of troops from Siachen. The package, sources said, might not be announced in its entirety, but the two leaders will definitely deal with a broader picture designed to lead to the”final solution” of Kashmir problem.

Sources say, a provision to discuss the Kashmir issue “in all its totality” under the supervision of the two countries is likely to be issued in the joint statement in order to sustain the dialogue. The possibility of a Joint Working Group, which will deal exclusively with Kashmir is being explored. The progress of the group is expected to be monitored by the “two principals” of the Indian and Pakistani Governments. The two sides already have a joint working group on Kashmir, but the group, headed by their Foreign Secretaries, also discusses peace and security. The proposed Kashmir-specific group is being seen as a move to satisfy the domestic audiences, as much of what will be discussed between the two leaders will not be made public.

Though it has not been formally put across by Islamabad, the Pakistan establishment is keen that India shows a little more flexibility while discussing Kashmir. In the past, Indians have heard out the Pakistanis and then made clear that Jammu and Kashmir was an integral pat of the country. Delhi has also clubbed the dispute with other outstanding issues to ensure that it does not get primacy over the other matters. This, the Pakistanis claim, had made progress on the issue impossible. While Islamabad is not against discussing cross-border terrorism, it wants to highlight the aspirations of the Kashmiris.

A Pakistan newspaper Dawn reported on June 26 that the Agra talks may result in an agreement by both sides to withdraw from Siachen. It said, “The two sides have realized that the Siachen engagement was contributing significantly to tensions between the two countries as well as costing them huge amounts in terms of money and material”. Quoting military sources, the daily said, initially the focus will be on withdrawing forces from Siachen and halting skirmishes along the Line of Control. The report was however, denied by Pakistan as “a total conjecture”.

Despite these denials, some more media reports have unveiled the kind of confidence-building measures the two leaders may discuss on Kashmir before they settle down to serious talks to finally resolve the 52-year old dispute. One such Confidence-building Measures being considered is to have a Wagah-type arrangement in Kashmir, as it exists along the Indo-Pak border in punjab. This border checkpost will enable Kashmiris from the two sides to cross into each other’s territory in the divided Kashmir. According to sources, the reduction of infiltration into Kashmir will, however, be the key to implementation of a host of possible CBMS which include the facilitation of greater interaction between Kashmiris on both sides of the border. Sources point out that Gen Musharraf cannot be expected to make a public statement on restraining infiltrations as Pakistan has never formally acknowledged any responsibility for the movement of militants into Kashmir. India will, therefore, have to base its response on private assurances by Pakistani leaders and on what actually happens on the ground after Gen Musharraf departs for Islamabad. Indian security forces after the General’s exit are expected to carefully monitor the LoC for any perceptible drop in infiltration. It is estimated that it will take round a month to determine whether cross-border movement of militants has actually reduced or not.

Other CBMs which can be considered during the Musharraf visit include force reductions in Kashmir. For his part, Gen. Musharaf is expected to offer more autonomy to Pak-occupied Kashmir and would expect India to do the same in jammu and Kashmir. India is yet to react on the Kashmir autonomy issue. The word autonomy would mean relaxing restrictions on the movement of the people living on either side of the LoC. It would also imply encouraging free mixing of the people and trade between the PoK and J&K. New Delhi is unlikely to accept this.

In the meanwhile, the Indian weekly, OUTLOOK, has on the basis of an opinion poll it conducted, worked out a framework of a possible solution of the Kashmir problem. The salient features of the framework are: [1] the two leaders [at Agra summit] declare their intention to facilitate closer ties between PoK and Kashmir through a soft border, subject to reduction of cross-border terrorism; [2] establish a verification mechanism to monitor the reduction in violence; [3] In time, open the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road; allow easy movement of people and goods between PoK and Kashmir; [4] work towards a J&K Free Trade Zone; [5] Announce intention to demilitarize the entire region, through bilateral steps; [6] Unveil a comprehensive autonomy package to J&K; Article 370 stays; [7] Only defence, foreign affairs, currency communication, supreme court, election commission and UPSC stays with the centre; [8] Reflect the Kashmiri identity in passports and such other documents; [9] Enable Kashmiri Hindus to return to the State and restore their properties; [10 Conduct of election to be observed by a Commission comprising Kashmiris; civil rights activists and eminent people not connected with the Government.

The Outlook’s framework has emerged after an examination of ideas and proposals that have been in existence in track II diplomacy. Some of these ideas have been identified by Farooq Kathwari’s Kashmir Study Group [KSG] as well as in Indo-Pak Track II discussions. The introduction to the KSG’s proposals “Kashmir : A Way Forward explains that in December, 1998, some members of the KSG in consultation with several Indians and Pakistanis developed the package.

All in all, therefore, political observers say, the success or failure of the Agra summit will be judged by what movements they make on the question of Kashmir. Both the leaders have highs stakes. Both have played the gamble. Any failure would expose Mr. Vajpayee to ridicule by the opposition parties to his attempt to find a place in history by his vain bid to resolve the Kashmir dispute. And Gen. Musharraf would be under greater pressure by the Jehadis to give them more support, money and arms so that they could step up their campaign. Already they claim that it is their success in bleeding the Indian security forces white which has forced India to return to the negotiating table and that their sacrifices cannot be allowed to go waste. India would be keenly watching developments in Kashmir and any intensification of acts of terrorism would convince India that Gen. Musharraf has fallen to the Jehadi bait.