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Gujarat : Tension over VHP plans

	November 18, 2002

With the Assembly elections scheduled to be held in less than three weeks in December, there is tension in Gujarat. The Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) has so far refused to cancel its proposed “Vijay Yatra” (victory march) starting from Godhra on Sunday (Nov 17) and ending on December 6, a week before the poll on December 12. The venue chosen (Godhra) for the Yatra (march) is highly significant as it was here that a train was partly set on fire allegedly by Muslims killing scores of Hindus, that led to communal riots in other parts of Gujarat. The violence left nearly a thousand people belonging to the minority community dead and hundreds homeless, forcing them into relief camps. The date for the conclusion of the Yatra too is obviously provocative being the 10th anniversary of the Babri Masjid demolition at Ayodhya in Uttar Pradesh.

A worried Election Commission (EC) that has been monitoring the ground situation in Gujarat banned the march following a State Government report fearing fresh violence and banned the VHP Yatra. Prime Minister Vajpayee has clearly send the EC action was justified and that the Godhra incident should not be made a poll issue. The Narendra Modi Government’s reaction will be watched as it is expected to uphold the Election Commission order.

For the present, VHP Secretary General Praveen Togadia has been barred from entering Godhra. The District Magistrate also denied permission to the VHP to take out the Yatra.

Heavy security arrangements have been put in place by the district administration. Paramilitary forces too have been alerted to prevent any untoward incident. All entry points into Godhra were sealed. Deployment of Rapid Action Force is seen as an indication of the seriousness of the situation. Some preventive arrests were made.

The VHP defiance has the potential to spark a fresh flare-up with dangerous consequences endangering the poll process itself. The VHP has categorically stated in Ahmedabad that the organisation would go ahead with the Yatra. In fact, turning more aggressive. The VHP has warned that not only will the Yatra be pursued more vigorously but models of the burnt S-6 Sabarmati Express coach will be prominently displayed.

The Prime Minister’s message was clear and blunt. He said in his statement: “The Government of Gujarat has done the right thing by acting as per the directive of the Election Commission to prohibit religious processions in the State ahead of the Assembly elections. I appeal to all organisations to honour this directive issued by the constitutional authority and help the State administration in discharging its duty.”

That Vajpayee decided to issue a special statement, indirectly reprimanding the Sangh Parivar (RSS family) and his party for taking on a constitutional authority, suggested that he had taken serious note of the VHP and the Bharatiya Janata Party’s belligerent stance.

In fact, he went a step further and even gave an interview to a TV news channel where he reiterated his disapproval of the VHP’s blatant plans to inflame communal passions in the run-up to the Gujarat elections.

Earlier, VHP leader Praveen Togadia had slammed Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) J.M. Lyngdoh for acting at the Congress’ behest. An angry Togadia announced in Ahmedabad: “We are ready to face any consequences.” Regarding the Prime Minister’s advice that the Godhra incident should not be made an election issue, the VHP leader said: “Godhra is the heart of Hindutva (Hindu chauvinism) and it is impossible to forget the gruesome Godhra carnage. Godhra is part of the issue.” He said he expected the Prime Minister to safeguard the basic fundamental rights of Hindus and not succumb to pressure from secular forces.

Vajpayee, on his part, disagreed with the BJP’s criticism of the EC’s decision and was equally disapproving of his party’s attempt to seek political mileage from the Godhra incident and the subsequent violence that ravaged Gujarat. Vajpayee said: “On the face of it, the decision might look wrong but given the circumstances in Gujarat, the ban order is correct.” He went on to state that the killing of train passengers in Godhra and the communal violence which followed should not be made an election issue. “If it is done, it will look like there is no other issue and votes are being played with like a toy,” he said.

“I urge all political parties and organisations to focus their election campaign on issues of development and governance, and not on matters that vitiate the atmosphere,” Vajpayee said. Vajpayee admitted that with the elections only a month away, it was only natural for social and political organisations to conduct their campaign but added that these had to be undertaken in a lawful way. He said he was in constant touch with the Gujarat government and had advised everyone to concentrate on the poll and not take any steps that may fan passions and disrupt the poll process. On the path chosen by the VHP, Vajpayee said, “It is difficult to say what it will do... But I feel things will settle down with attention being focussed on the elections.”

But in Ahmedabad, after a three-hour high-level meeting of the top brass of the VHP and Bajrang Dal to discuss further course of action following the Gujarat Government’s refusal to grant permission for the Yatra, VHP general secretary Praveen Togadia said he was going ahead to uphold the fundamental rights of Hindu society. The Bajrang Dal too refused to oblige, accusing the Chief Election Commissioner of banning the VHP’s Yatra at the behest of the Congress. Taking out a religious procession is a fundamental right, the Bajrang Dal maintained. The date of the Yatra (November 17) was fixed in March last and will not be changed, the Dal affirmed.

With the winter session of Parliament due to begin from Monday (Nov 18), the Gujarat developments are bound to figure prominently. This was made clear by the Congress which asked the Prime Minister to clarify the contradiction between his stand on the VHP’s Yatra and that of his party’s.



Contradictions in the Sangh Parivar

The Election Commission, contrary to the VHP charge of acting in a biased manner had issued its directive to ban the “Yatra” after its full three-member team returned from a tour of Gujarat. It also deliberated upon a report sent by the State administration that “unequivocally” warned that a law and order problem could arise because of the VHP’s yatra. As the party in the Government at the Centre, the onus is on the BJP to ensure that the VHP respects the EC’s order. “The Commission has noted with utmost concern the report of the State administration in Gujarat conveying that there is every likelihood of communal tension and passion getting exacerbated by the proposed yatra planned by the VHP from November 17,” the EC said. The Gujarat administration has unequivocally stated that possibilities of a law and order situation arising in the wake of the proposed yatra cannot be ruled out. “In view of this the proposed VHP yatra should not be allowed to take place,” it said.

Political observers note the ban on the march imposed by the EC, is necessary. The VHP is no benign religious-cultural organisation. Its leadership regularly spews venom against India’s minorities that led to communal violences in the past. The proposed yatra would involve use of replicas of the S-6 coach of the Sabarmati Express burnt down by miscreants in Godhra on February 27 and there is likelihood of “communally provocative and intemperate speeches” being made during the course of the yatra. Gujarat has undergone the trauma of violent riots and the people are yet to feel fully safe, considering that even minor incidents get blown up into major communal incidents.

Togadia has accused Lyngdoh of misleading the nation and trying to impose his will on the masses. He charged that Lyngdoh was trying to be the Chief Minister and Chief Secretary of Gujarat as well. The VHP leader also charged the CEC with terrorising the Gujarat bureaucracy.

It is obvious that the VHP is trying to take off from where Chief Minister Narendra Modi left, following the coming into operation of poll conduct norms. After being repremanded by the Prime Minister who asked Modi to stop denigrating the office of Chief Election Commissioner, it is now the VHP which wants to carry on the “hate campaign” against the Muslims.

Political observers feel that the EC ban order is a major setback for the Modi Government. The ban on the yatra is to be enforced by the Government of Narendra Modi, a man who is praised as Hindutva’s new icon and to whom the VHP lent resources and organisational support throughout the nine phases of his yatra. In the past, the Modi Government has been extending support to the VHP and when Praveen Togadia made references to the “Italian dog” in his speech in Bhuj, two BJP ministers, including Industry Minister Suresh Mehta, were by his side.

The VHP’s best-known face in the BJP, Gordhan Zadaphia, holds the key Minister of State for Home portfolio. Modi’s Gaurav Yatra (pride march) was originally a VHP idea. On February 28, when VHP declared a bandh (closure of work) after the Godhra incident, the State BJP Government watched and cheered it as a natural reaction of the people. The Centre too has been extremely supportive to the VHP. It has to be recalled that no one was called to account when VHP leader Ashok Singhal violated the prohibitory orders near the makeshift Ram temple at Ayodhya (UP). Similarly, no voices were raised by people in authority in New Delhi and Lucknow when Bajrang Dal activists had a free run in the Taj Mahal complex in Agra some months ago.

Now the Centre as well as the Modi Government are being forced into action against the VHP. The BJP, in a stand different from that of the Prime Minister, has called the ban inappropriate. Every organisation, whether political, social or religious, has a right to carry on its campaign and programmes. In a democracy, people must have the right and liberty to speak and the right to reach people. Any restraint is not a positive thing, argued BJP president M. Venkaiah Naidu. Party spokesman Arun Jaitley has commented that the anticipatory “gag orders” applied only to the VHP and only with regard to what happened at the Godhra railway station and not other places.

For the VHP, this is the moment of truth. If it calls off the yatra, it will be a huge loss of face for an organisation that thrives on belligerence. If it defies the ban, it will prove to be a serious embarrassment for the BJP as such a step will confirm the presence of lawless elements in the Sangh Parivar’s ranks.



Poll scene hots up

While the Vishwa Hindu Parishad is set on its mission to vitiate the poll atmosphere in Gujarat, the main political parties are busy finalizing the names of their candidates. A surprise announcement was that Gujarat Congress chief Shankersinh Vaghela won’t be contesting the polls, thus leaving the issue of a nominee of the party for the post of Chief Minister if the Congress were to emerge victorious.The party has finalised names of 140 candidates. On the other hand, Narendra Modi is searching for a safe seat. The non-cooperation by the strong Patel community is a matter of worry for Modi, who is facing a media blitz against him as well as Opposition fire for his “hate” campaign. The Congress is trying to erase the image of being an “anti-Hindu” party, a charge hurled against it by the Sangh outits. Though the Congress wants to woo the aggrieved Muslim vote bank, it does not want to antagonize Hindu voters also.

The Congress is targeting the Patel-heavy Saurashtra region where it had been virtually wiped out in the last Assembly elections. And much of it depends on wooing the influential Patels up in arms against Narendra Modi, who is seen as being behind the sidelining of former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel.

“We should get at least 40 of the 52 seats in Saurashtra. In fact, the entire 17-20 per cent Patel community in the State is angry with Modi and most will vote against him,” a spokesman of the Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee has claimed.

Vaghela, the party feels, would benefit from this negative turn as in his stint as Chief Minister he did quite a bit for the Patels. Congress leaders quote internal assessments to show that the BJP’s popularity in the State peaked in April immediately after the communal riots. But since then, there has been an 11.6 per cent swing away from the party.

Acutely aware that the Keshubhai factor could be its undoing, the BJP has been doing its best to project the veteran leader as an important part of its campaign. But the cracks have been showing for some time now. Patel, who was removed as Chief Minister to facilitate Modi’s ascent last year, did not participate in the crucial Godhra leg of Modi’s Rath Yatra. And though according to party leaders, he will have a significant say in deciding the names of candidates, he has all along been much the reluctant campaigner. Congress leaders reason that while last time the Patels voted en masse for the BJP with Keshubhai projected as the chief ministerial candidate, the open projection of Modi as CM this time would alienate them.

The BJP, meanwhile, is relying heavily on Modi and his Hindutva card and leaders feel that even the Election Commission’s ban on the VHP yatra will help the party’s cause. This is even admitted in secret by the Congress. According to a senior Congress leader, the EC move might actually work in Modi’s favour, and it would have been better had the EC had banned all communal yatras.



Surveys show no clear winner

Surveys commissioned by both the BJP and the Congress indicate so evenly poised a contest that even a slight shift in perception could result in a change in the overall scenario. While the BJP claims that a survey gives it an edge over the Congress, the latter is quoting a latest survey commissioned by the BJP, which gives 62 seats to the party, 55 to the Congress with 63 that could swing either way.

A similar exercise by the Congress that concluded on October 28 last showed a marginal lead for it, but with a vote division such as that even a one per cent shift may change things. The Congress-commissioned survey has shown the party gaining evenly across the State, while the BJP is expected to win hugely in what the party calls “epicentres of communal violence” earlier this year.

The party also says the BJP has already peaked in pitch and profile and now can only plateau or go down. And the Congress campaign is yet to gain momentum. Comments Congress leader Kamal Nath: “The BJP is desperate and shaky. Twenty four of its MLAs, including 10 ministers, want to shift their constituencies.”

Both parties are in the meantime engaged in finalising lists of their candidates, with the filing of nomination papers to begin on November 18. There is shadow boxing here too. While the Congress has finalised 75 names, Kamal Nath has admitted that the party would decide on about 30-35 seats after studying the BJP’s strategy. The party is also keenly waiting to see which constituency Modi will choose to contest from. Having spurned the Samajwadi Party’s offer of a tie-up, the Congress has decided to go out on its own, keeping aside a few seats for the Communist Party of India (Marxist), CPI(M), and the CPI.

Both parties are also talking to possible allies, the BJP mainly with NDA partner Samata Party and the Congress with the Samajwadi Party, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Lok Janshakti Party. However, neither is expected to concede too many seats in what is set to be a direct contest between the two.

The CPI and the CPI-M have settled for only one seat each in Jamnagar and Bhavnagar, respectively. “The aim is to counter Narendra Modi and the VHP’s communal offensive. The need of the hour is to stop the secular vote from being divided and ensure a one-to-one fight”, a senior Left leader said, adding that the Left parties would have contested at least 10 seats otherwise. “The Congress is the main Opposition in Gujarat. In national interest, it is more important to put up a united fight against the divisive elements and the BJP’s attempt to communally polarise the electorate,” the Left leader said.

The Communist parties expressed apprehensions about the NCP and the Samajwadi Party spoiling the show in Gujarat. Talks with the NCP failed due to “illogical demands” made by its leader Sharad Pawar, who reportedly asked for five of the seven seats in Surendranagar district in Gujarat. The Congress is said to have offered three seats.



The national significance of the elections

In Gujarat, the country is likely to witness a clash of ideas and individuals that would have lasting repercussions for the nation’s very capacity to survive as a working liberal democracy. Gujarat, for better or worse, will provide a historical moment, says columnist Harish Khare.

He says at the centre of the Gujarat battle, first and foremost, is Modi. He is perhaps the first to have spurned the conventional profile of a centrist, moderate, non-antagonistic leader even after becoming Chief Minister; so far, Indian politics has been familiar only with leaders who cheerfully strike an excessively partisan, parochial stance in order to garner votes but instantly abandon, equally cheerfully, their partisanship once grafted in for ministerial work. Modi has broken the mould. He has defiantly donned the mantle of abrasive partisanship. He has appropriated the Pakistan President, Pervez Musharraf, as an antagonist; he cannot resist taking a crack at Ms. Sonia Gandhi and her Italianness. And now he seeks the endorsement from the voters for his divisive polemics and policies since the Godhra massacre.

Modi may or may not have cast a spell on the masses in Gujarat; he has certainly enthralled the so-called “younger leadership” in the BJP. One State leader who has refused to be swept off his feet is the firmly-rooted Keshubhai Patel. Some of Modi’s admirers even see him as a “historical figure”. Modi is being deliberately marketed as a “diehard” defender of the “Hindu samaj” (society).

But what is pertinent, more than anything else, is that Modi himself genuinely believes that his blatantly anti-reconciliatory (read anti-Muslim) positioning has elevated him to the status of the most popular leader among Hindus. Should voters give him even a majority of one seat, his managers are ready to project him as the next “natural” national leader of the BJP-RSS combine.

Union Home Minister Advani’s political future is hostage to Modi’s prescriptions and preferences; even re-election from the Gandhinagar Lok Sabha constituency may become a dicey proposition if Modi does not feel sufficiently protected. If the BJP manages to win in Gujarat, Advani, says the columnist, may well find himself having to play second fiddle to a Modi-fied agenda, which in turn would take him quite far away from the respectable political centrist ground, that sine qua non of prime ministerial viability.

For Prime Minister, Modi’s back after the State Government-inspired violence against the Muslims. Modi’s Gujarat has transmogrified itself as the anti-thesis of everything Vajpayee stood for in his long public life. He may have to shed his ambivalence. He appears to have already done so and has responded to the national rather than the BJP’s partisan cause.

The stakes in Gujarat also represent the larger struggle over the future of the Indian polity. The Hindutva establishment has come to view the Gujarat contest as a modern day equivalent of the Mahabharata, a battle of epic proportions, pitting Hindu civilisation against a combination of the “international church, Islamic world, and jehadi terrorists”. All those who oppose Modi and the BJP are anti-Hindu, divisionists and have a soft corner for terrorists who would torch a train at Godhra or storm the Akshardham temple in Gandhinagar. The liturgy of hate and divisiveness is deemed to be legitimatised by the larger war cries of “war against terror” being chanted in Washington.

In a way, the Modi-fied Hindutva challenge is more fundamental - and more subversive - than the temple movement. The Ram Mandir (temple) mobilisation succeeded because it appealed to a vague sense of historic wrong symbolised by the Masjid (mosque), but essentially it succeeded because it also promised to deliver India from the seemingly interminable excesses of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. The Ram temple movement and its concomitant promise of “ram-rajya” (rule of Lord Rama) were the perfect antidotes to the crony capitalism and corruption of the 1980s. That promise of “su-raaj” (good governance) now stands buried.

The new Hindutva assertiveness of the kind being displayed in Gujarat carefully steers clear of any promise of good governance or ideology or ideals. The Modi agenda is premised on three themes. First, a cultivated intolerance of dissent. Second, the governmental authority - coercive, political and legal - must be used to show the minorities their place. And, third, an extremely unhealthy and untenable invocation of xenophobia, that too in this age of globalisation.

The Gujarat battle is much bigger than the Congress or the BJP.