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Gujarat : Parties make battle plans

	November 25, 2002

The filing of nomination papers for Gujarat Assembly elections will end on November 25. The surprise in the Bharatiya Janata Party list of candidates is the shifting of Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s constituency from Rajkot to Ahmedabad, while the Congress list excludes the name of state party chief Shankersinh Vaghela, raising speculation about the party’s fears of its electoral prospects.

Both the BJP and the Congress plan to field star campaigners. For the BJP it’s a do or die battle as an electoral setback in Gujarat could upset its future plans. Both Prime Minister Vajpayee and the Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani have cautioned against exploiting the emotive Godhra issue and the subsequent communal riots in Gujarat. The state unit of the BJP has warned that it will give a fitting reply to the parties which try to paint it as a communal one. The saffron outfits like the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) and the Bajrang Dal have no reservations about raising the Godhra issue, terrorism and even the BJP’s alleged failure to contain militancy. Vajpayee and Advani have been under fire for rejecting the “anti-minority agenda” raised by the VHP and the Shiv Sena.

The Modi lobby is still fearful over the possibility of the Patel faction spoiling the chances of the Chief Minister. The Congress, on the other hand, is trying hard to ensure that its pro-Muslim stand does not result in a Hindu backlash. A section of political analysts have raised doubts over the cancellation by Congress chief Sonia Gandhi of the Iftar party (traditional breaking of fast in the evenings by devout Muslims during the month of Ramzan) and whether it had links to the BJP campaign in Gujarat that the Congress was anti-Hindu.

As a pointer to the importance attached to the assembly poll, it has been decided that the Prime Minister will lead the his party’s election campaign in Gujarat by attending meetings in Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot and Ahmedabad, while Home Minister Advani will canvass in all 25 districts of the state. Human Resources Development Minister Murli Manohar Joshi, Information and Broadcasting Minister Sushma Swaraj, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Pramod Mahajan, Coal Minister Uma Bharati and Civil Aviation Minister Syed Shahnawaz Hussain will also address rallies in Gujarat. The party’s tribal leaders, Jual Oram and Jharkhand Chief Minister Babulal Marandi, will campaign in the tribal areas of Gujarat.



Why did Modi change his constituency

The major rumour that Narendra Modi would change his constituency proved right. He has shifted from Rajkot-II to Maninagar in Ahmedabad. He had won in a by-election after assuming the reins of power last year. The Rajkot-II seat has been given back to Finance Minister Vajubhai Vala, who vacated it for Modi.

Political observers feel that the change in his constituency confirms that the Chief Minister plans to cash in on the post-Godhra communal polarisation rather than on good governance. Modi understands that fighting from Rajkot would be very tough for him for several reasons. Firstly, as Rajkot is drought-hit, he would have to address the Narmada issue. Under the chief ministership of Narendra Modi, Gujarat faced one of the worst riots and the state government was accused of sponsoring and cooperating with the rioters. The riots resulted in economic instability and negative growth. Under these circumstances, it was expected that Modi would not fight from the same constituency. On the other hand, in Ahmedabad, he can focus on Hindutva.

Secondly, the fact that Keshubhai Patel is dominant in the Rajkot area also explains his shift of the constituency. Rajkot falls in the Saurasthra region where Keshubhai’s influence is strong. It is well known that the BJP in Gujarat is sharply divided into two groups- one group loyal to Modi and the other one loyal to the former BJP chief minister Keshubhai Patel. As Modi replaced Keshubhai as chief Minister last year, the former is disliked in the region. Thus Modi was unsure whether the Patels would vote for him in Rajkot. Keshubhai is a veteran politician of Gujarat and has seen every election in the state since 1952 from close quarters. It is an open secret that a section of the state BJP does not accept Modi’s leadership and his style of functioning.

Most of the communal violence in the first half of the year 2002 took place in central Gujarat. For Chief Minister Modi, this proved advantageous. The violence badly hit the traditional Congress strongholds, like the tribal areas of Panchmahal district and Mehsana. These were the areas which Keshubhai and the moderate section within the BJP had not explored. Modi, who did not have a political constituency of his own, sensed an opportunity to set up his own power base. In the past six months, the Chief Minister may have managed to convert the region into a Hindutva constituency. The Maninagar constituency, which Modi has finally chosen, is a middle-class locality. It is a place where Hindutva rhetoric sells and a section of the BJP claimed there was “hardly any Muslim left following the two-month-long riots. It is a traditional BJP constituency, in which Modi has worked as an RSS pracharak (preacher). As Modi lacks caste-based support, he apparently feels that it is a safe place for him.

Political observers, however, feel that Modi’s decision to shift his constituency could prove problem to him. As such, there is no clear wave in his favour. A party member loyal to Keshubhai in fact charged when he said : “He is a CM on the run.” Modi feels that he has become unpopular and the shifting of the constituency is the first major sign of his “nervousness.



Infighting within the BJP

However Modi had an upper hand in the continuing battle for domination of the party’s Gujarat unit. Two staunch loyalists of Modi - Finance Minister Nitinbhai Patel and Urban Development Minister I.K. Jadeja have been re-nominated from their constituencies, Kadi and Dhrangadhra respectively. It is learnt that Keshubhai had been opposing the re-nomination of Nitinbhai Patel and Jadeja The Patel lobby had been insisting that it should be ensured that the party tickets were distributed on merit and not to extreme Hindutva elements close to Modi. But as far as the distribution of the tickets in the Patel dominated areas is concerned, many Patels have been accommodated to mollify Keshubhai.

The case of rebel BJP leader Haren Pandya who had criticized the Chief Minister for his role in the riots was considered a test for Modi. Till November 23 Pandya, who has played a very significant role in the state politics for a long time, had not been given the ticket. He had won from his Ellsbridge constituency thrice - in 1992, 1995 and 1998.

And while BJP candidates lost municipal elections everywhere, all the 12 candidates from Ellisbridge where Pandya had campaigned, won their seats. He has been Minister of State for Home in the Keshubhai Patel Ministry and Minister of State for Revenue in the Modi Cabinet. Pandya’s confrontation with Modi started when the former refused to vacate the Ellisbridge seat for Modi to contest after he was made chief minister. Then there were reports of spats between the two leaders and the fact that Pandya was very close to Keshubhai added to Modi’s ire. The relationship further worsened when Pandya appeared before a “Citizen’s Tribunal” in the aftermath of the rioting that followed the train burning incident in Godhra. It’s alleged that Pandya blamed the Modi government for inciting the riots. Seizing the opportunity, Modi got Pandya to quit the ministry.



The communal aspect

Though the BJP has not officially announced its poll strategy for Gujarat, Modi said the Godhra riots should not be used for electoral purposes. “The BJP will seek votes on its past performance. Godhra will not be an issue, but if it is raised by the opposition, we will give them an apt answer,” he said. The party has decided to retain the majority of the ministers associated with the riots, including Mayaben Kodnani, whose constituency Naroda witnessed some of the worst rioting in the post-Godhra phase. Bajrang Dal activist, Haresh Bhatt, is the BJP candidate from Godhra.

Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani has said that government would ensure free, fair and peaceful election in Gujarat. “BJP and other related organisations should see that the elections [in Gujarat] are free and fair and that good governance and safety of minorities are key poll issues,” he said while replying to a debate on an Opposition-sponsored adjournment motion on the communal situation in the country, with specific reference to Gujarat.

But there are two sides to Narendra Modi. Observers are still not sure which is the real one. Only recently, Modi was forced to echo his senior party leadership’s assurance that Godhra and its aftermath will not be exploited at the hustings. Governance, they chime, will be the issue instead.

This is precisely where the problems lie. Without Godhra, Modi has nothing or less than that to show for his tenure as chief minister. On all criteria of governance, Gujarat wears an extremely unhealthy pallor. Over the past few years, growth has shown a dramatic decline, both in the agricultural and the industrial sectors; although fresh investment appeared to have risen, in actual terms of project implementation the trend has been negative; and there is a frightening deterioration in the state’s fiscal balance. Irony is that Gujarat has received one of the most preferential treatments from the central government - it is the country’s top recipient of central largesse in terms of loans and advances in per capita terms. Of course, as the polling date draws nearer, Modi can cite other reasons to worry as well. Like the inner party conflict that threatens to hobble his campaign for the state.



Riot probe report blames Modi administration

The Concerned Citizens’ Tribunal report that the Modi regime played active role in riots in Gujarat comes as a big jolt to the Caretaker Ministry and the ruling BJP. The report is very crucial as Assembly elections are to be held after two weeks from now. The report says that the Modi administration and the Sangh Parivar played an active role in Gujarat’s anti-minority riots earlier this year. The tribunal comprises eminent personalities like retired Justices V.R. Krishna Iyer, P.B. Sawant and Hosbet Suresh. It was set up at the initiative of several NGOs and civil rights groups. Justice Hosbet Suresh said the Tribunal had examined more than 2,000 documents, 1,500 riot witnesses and victims.

The Tribunal’s final report, “Crime Against Humanity,” released on November 21, says that Sangh Parivar constituents planned the post-Godhra violence well in advance. It observes that a similar pattern of violence was followed in various parts of the state, something that many NGOs and reporters have already pointed out. The Tribunal has recommended immediate detention and prosecution of VHP leaders Praveen Togadia and Ashok Singhal and Chief Minister Narendra Modi for inciting communal hatred against the minority community.

The report says that there is a strong nexus between the Modi ministry and the RSS and VHP, and the backing that they gave each other. There is evidence which indicates that the Godhra incident was not pre-planned, contrary to allegations by the government. The report has also stated that the fire started inside the Sabarmati Express coach. It is said that a well thought-out scheme to extract maximum political capital out of the Godhra incident was launched on February 27 and accordingly the bodies of the slain Kar Sewaks (volunteers) were brought to Ahmedabad. VHP and Bajrang Dal activists were trained and given tridents and swords at intensive training camps. Only the more seasoned members were told that they would have to participate in fights or riots whenever necessary. This also explains that how huge mobs quickly surfaced all over the state during the carnage.