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Grand Alliance : Congress, BJP & Trinamul vs. Left Front

	April 10, 2000

As a fallout of the defeat of the Congress candidate in the biennial elections to the Rajya Sabha from West Bengal, a bigger issue arose when the West Bengal Congress leaders opted almost unanimously for Ms. Mamata Banerjee’s “Mahajot” (Grand Alliance). The present and former Congress Chiefs in West Bengal, Mr. A.B.A. Ghani Khan Choudhary and Mr. Somen Mitra were summoned by the Congress president, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi to New Delhi on April 2. The very next day, Mr. Ghani Khan Choudhary, who is in indifferent health, and Mr. Somen Mitra met Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and apparently told her that the only way the identity of the West Bengal Congress could be saved would be to join the proposed grand alliance of Ms. Mamata Banerjee.



Ms. Banerjee broke away from the Congress early in 1998 and formed the Trinamul (grassroots) Congress and formed an alliance with the BJP which was then finding its feet in the state. Together they fought the election to the 12th Lok Sabha when the Trinamul won seven seats and the BJP got one. The relationship between the Trinamul and the BJP was somewhat uneven, but it continued when the President ordered fresh elections to a new 13th Lok Sabha. In these elections not only did the two improve their vote percentage but also secured eight and two seats respectively. Subsequently, Ms. Mamata Banerjee joined the Vajpayee Government formed after the 13th Lok Sabha elections. Ms. Banerjee became the Railway Minister in the Government and the alliance in the state between the Trinamul and the BJP continued.



Obviously the Delhi leaders of the Congress do not mind the West Bengal unit going its way separately and joining Ms. Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Grand Alliance of which the BJP is a partner. This makes the situation in West Bengal a peculiar one. The Trinamul leader has made it clear that the alliance with the BJP would continue and the Trinamul would also be in the National Democratic Alliance.



Mrs. Sonia Gandhi’s spokesman in New Delhi Mr. Ajit Jogi, has categorically declared that the party would have nothing to do with the BJP and Mrs. Sonia Gandhi is believed to have advised Mr. A.B.A. Ghani Khan Choudhary to enter the Grand Alliance in a manner that the Congress ideology is not compromised. This emphasis is justified because ideologically, the Congress and the BJP are poles apart and it would be suicidal for the Congress to appear to be seen with the BJP as a member of the Grand Alliance.



The West Bengal situation is such that the Congress party has few options. It can either join the Grand Alliance of Ms. Mamata Banerjee and fight unitedly with her against the CPI(M) dominated Left Front in the election to the State Assembly due in a year’s time or face almost total extinction. The manner in which most of the 60 MLAs of the Congress party in the West Bengal Assembly voted for the Trinamul supported independent (Rajya Sabha) candidate (who is himself an ex-Congressman), showed the West Bengal Congressmen preferred Ms. Mamata Banerjee to any leader of the Congress.



Of course, Mr. Ghani Khan Choudhary and Mr. Somen Mitra swore during their stay in Delhi from April 2 to April 5, loyalty to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi while seeking her acceptance of the Grand Alliance idea. Mr. Ghani Khan Choudhary is old and infirm and can hardly give a new direction to the Congress while Ms. Mamata Banerjee who grew up in the Congress is known to be a staunch anti-Communist and also a fighter.



Mr. Priyaranjan Das Munshi who is a member of Parliament and also the working president of the West Bengal Congress was against the Grand Alliance idea. He and Mr. Pranab Mukherjee, former External Affairs Minister had persuaded Mrs. Sonia Gandhi to nominate Mr. D.P. Roy as a Congress candidate but who lost because of cross-voting. Mr. Somen Mitra had been an opponent of Ms. Mamata Banerjee at one time, but he now realises that the future of the Congress in West Bengal could be brightened only if it the Grand Alliance of Ms. Mamata Banerjee.



In the two days, April 3 and 4, that the West Bengal leaders spent in Delhi, they were able to make Mrs. Gandhi see reason and leave the question of the BJP being a partner of the alliance for them to sort out. It is typical of the Congress functioning that the Congress Working Committee was not involved in the decision.



Ms. Banerjee has good a rapport with Mr. Ghani Khan Choudhary and had no difficulty in projecting him as the future Chief Minister of West Bengal when mediamen asked her whether she would accept Mr. Choudhary as the leader of the Grand Alliance. Mr. Ghani Khan Choudhary is a former Railway Minister when Mrs. Indira Gandhi was Prime Minister.



There were some murmurs in the BJP over the advent of the Congress party in Ms. Mamata Banerjee’s Grand Alliance, but Mr. L.K. Advani. Mr. Advani said that in order to liberate West Bengal from the cudgels of the Marxists, the BJP was prepared to ally with any political party including the Congress. He gave his full support for the Mahajot (Grand Alliance) mooted by the Railway Minister, Ms. Mamata Banerjee. According to him, West Bengal has been completely destroyed by the Marxists during their 20 years (actually 23 years) of rule of the state. He said the Trinamul and the BJP had been able to considerably weaken their influence in the past two years.



There is no doubt that Ms. Mamata Banerjee has emerged as the hope of many people in West Bengal and has successfully challenged the hegemony of the CPI(M) much more than the Congress could do. The Congress was weakened in its resolve to fight the CPI(M) and the Left Front because at the national level the CPI(M) leaders, particularly Mr. Harkishan Singh Surjeet, the party general secretary and the West Bengal Chief Minister, Mr. Jyoti Basu who is a senior CPI(M) leader, were supporting Mrs. Sonia Gandhi’s leadership of a non-BJP alliance. Mr. Surjeet had in particular egged on Mrs. Sonia Gandhi in April 1999 to overthrow the then Vajpayee Government, but could not replace it by a Congress government or a Congress coalition led by Mrs. Sonia Gandhi.



Mr. Jyoti Basu who is 85, has been in declining health and has often sought retirement from the Chief Ministership and from the leadership of the CPI(M) in West Bengal. Although the party at first turned down his request for retirement, it has finally allowed him to retire next year and meanwhile have a deputy in the form of Mr. Budhadeb Bhattacharya. Mr. Basu has declared emphatically that he will not contest next year’s election and this has been interpreted as his gradually fading out from the political scene of the state.







A big vacuum will thus be created and apparently no Congress leader in West Bengal is upto to the task and realise that Ms. Mamata Banerjee is the proper person for the job. Elections are to take place next month to the municipalities and local bodies of West Bengal. A challenge to the CPI(M)’s dominance will be presented for which Ms. Mamata Banerjee’s Grand Alliance is the vehicle. No doubt, there will be a stiff competition for seats to be shared in the local body elections and subsequently for the Assembly next year, but having chosen Ms. Mamata Banerjee as the leader of the Alliance, these and other matters would be sorted out by her. In projecting Mr. Ghani Khan Choudhary as a future Chief Minister, Ms. Banerjee reckons that the Muslim vote would be secured for the alliance. West Bengal has a 24 per cent presence of the minority vote, what with the presence of a large number of Bangladeshi infiltrators who were encouraged by the CPI(M) and tolerated by the Congress as part of the state population. This would also, to a great extent, obviate any fears that the Muslim vote would not accrue to the alliance because of the presence of the BJP in it.



The CPI(M) was at first showing no signs of being affected by the success of the Grand Alliance move, but later the party criticised the move and said the Congress was committing a mistake by encouraging the BJP. It is to be realised by all concerned that Ms. Mamata Banerjee would not have become the voice of the anti-CPI(M) alliance in West Bengal if she did not have the support of the NDA and the BJP at the Centre. She is making the full use of her term as Railway Minister and building up support for herself and her party.



The West Bengal leaders are believed to be temperamental and it cannot be guaranteed that they would always stand by Ms. Mamata Banerjee or that she herself would continue to counsel restraint and discipline on the three parties. These fears are not unjustified, but considering the challenges before the alliance, it can be safely presumed that the latest developments have added to her stature and West Bengal now has an alternate leader who is non-Communist in her approach.



The Congress would have faced a severe division if the Grand Alliance idea had not been accepted. One faction would have gone with Ms. Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress and another would have persisted in its old ways. The people of the state would have largely supported Ms. Mamata Banerjee although a sizable section of the population would have still remain with the CPI(M) and the Left Front. But now with Ms. Mamata Banerjee as the head of the Alliance, a new path could be struck if the Assembly elections throw up a majority for the Grand Alliance. The CPI(M) and the Left Front have ensured stability for the past 23 years, but recent events have shown that by and large the people in West Bengal are fed up with the Communist rule which is too rigid. The CPI(M) cadres have also become unpopular in many areas.



Within the Congress party at the national level, there are reported to be strong dissensions and the former Finance Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh and Mr. Pranab Mukherjee are said to be out of favour with Mrs. Sonia Gandhi. Mr. Mukherjee is said to be cut up because he was contradicted by the party spokesman, Mr. Ajit Jogi, on the nuclear issue. Mr. Mukherjee had said that Mrs. Sonia Gandhi had told the American President during her meeting with him, when senior leaders like Mr. Mukherjee were present that she had advocated a nuclear deterrent for India. This was said to be contrary to the Congress stand which did not support the BJP-led government’s stand that a nuclear deterrent was essential for India. Mr. Ajit Jogi had contradicted Mr. Mukherjee and explained away Mrs. Sonia Gandhi’s position.



Mr. Arjun Singh is said to be closer to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi than ever before and is reported to be working on the spheres of increasing isolation of Mrs. Sonia Gandhi.