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Fresh Indo-Pak initiatives : Vajpayee ready for exploratory talks

	December 25, 2000

With Mr. Vajpayee having made a new initiative to extend the Ramzan ceasefire by another month and Gen. Musharraf responding with his announcement of partial troop pullback from the Line of Control, hopes have been raised for an early dialogue between India and Pakistan in the near future. beginning with exploratory talks at a level yet to be decided.

Noting the decline in violence sponsored from across the border during the current Ramzan ceasefire and pressing Pakistan for greater restraint, the Prime Minister has announced that India “will initiate exploratory steps” as are deemed necessary to revive the stalled peace process between the two nations. Later, while the official spokesman declined to define the nature of the “exploratory steps” that India is prepared to take, there is speculation that these steps could involve some formal or informal communication with Pakistan on the pre-requisites for the resumption of a dialogue.

The Prime Minister, while revealing his mind on exploratory steps in the course of the speech in Parliament on Dec. 20 when he announced extension of the Ramzan ceasefire by another month, acknowledged the sharp reduction of military temperature on the line of Control, but said, this must “cease entirely”. The Prime Minister, did not give any timeframe nor elaborated on the “exploratory steps”, but said that “as the initiator of the dialogue process with Pakistan, India remains committed to it. The existence of a suitable environment for such a process is self-evidently necessary”, he said.

Pakistan reacted positively to Mr. Vajpayee’s announcement on extension of the ceasefire and taking exploratory steps for talks. Its official spokesman said on Dec. 21 the decision has a “positive tone”, although it falls short of a “clear response” to Pakistan’s Dec. 2 initiative. The spokesman also welcomed Mr. Vajpayee’s statement on exploratory steps for resumption of dialogue, and said Pakistan was ready for an unconditional dialogue at any time, any place and any level. President Clinton described Mr. Vajpayee’s announcement as an indication of his “determination to pursue a course of peace in Kashmir.

Political observers say,the remarks by the Prime Minister indicate that India will first try to assess Pakistan’s commitment to the Lahore peace process, scuttled by the Kargil intrusions before returning to negotiations. Sources say, the “exploratory steps” India plans to initiate with Pakistan are aimed at resolving the differences on how to restructure the dialogue. In that sense, the “exploratory steps” are being described by diplomatic observers in New Delhi as “talks about talks”. The insistence by Pakistan for the involvement of Hurriyat Conference is, in fact, said to be the biggest remaining obstacle to the resumption of full-scale dialogue. Although India is ready to begin parallel talks on Kashmir - one with Pakistan and the other with the various groups in kashmir, including the Hurriyat, New Delhi will never accept a table for three. India has made it clear a number of ties that it can in no way countenance its own citizens sitting at a negotiating table with another nation. Further, New Delhi cannot accept the proposition that the Hurriyat is the sole representative of the popular opinion in Jammu and Kashmir.

The residual question is of cross-border terrorism. The Prime Minister acknowledged in Parliament on Dec. 23 a discernible reduction in some aspects of cross-border terrorism during the last few weeks of ceasefire. But, he also pointed to the current unacceptable incidents of infiltration and violence and made a specific reference to the continuing terrorist activity by the Jehadi groups in Jammu and Kashmir. India cannot begin and conduct a serious dialogue with Pakistan in an atmosphere in which Islamabad is free to foment violence in Kashmir through the jehadi groups. Pakistan’s claim that it has no control over these groups enjoys little credibility in New Delhi and it wants Pakistan to rein in the jehadi groups before the talks can begin.

The question is why India feels it can open the door, even a crack, in spite of Lahore’s false dawn, Kargil intrusions, Kandhahar plane hijack, Islamabad’s ruining of the August ceasefire in Kashmir. In New Delhi’s view, Pervez Musharraf is boxed in and this was a best opportunity to extract the maximum from him. One, Pakistan’s isolation is unprecedented. Fro Islamic Iran to the US, no country is pushing India to talk with Pakistan. No country, not even China, upholds Islamabad’s demand for tripartite talks. Instead, Washington has arm-twisted Pakistan. The US has told Islamabad to curb violence in Kashmir and reportedly made it a condition for its IMF bailout. It has also blamed Pakistan for the premature demise of the August ceasefire. Two, if Pakistan is obviously obstructionist, it could lose militant support. In August, Islamabad was shocked by how many Hizbul Mujahideen field commanders were ready to talk with India. So , it pulled the rug from under. This time, Pakistan cannot play a spoiler’s role again for fear it may splinter the Hurriyat or even the Hizbul Mujahideen. Hence, its demand for tripartite talks and its getting the militants to echo that line.

Political observers say, it s a win-win situation for New Delhi. It gave Pakistan a charter of demands for a dialogue. It then launched a peace initiative with the militants. If Islamabad rejects India’s demands it has to sabotage the ceasefire. But, this would further tarnish its international reputation and raise questions among militants. So, Pakistan, teeth clenched, has been acceding to India’s dialogue terms.



Truce extension and pullout intiatives

Within hours of the Prime Minister, Mr. Vajpayee announcing extension of the ceasefire in Kashmir by another month on Dec. 20, Gen. Musharraf came out with a counter-initiative offering to partially pullback troops from the Line of Control. In a statement on Dec. 20, Islamabad said, it was taking the “bold initiative” to reduce the number of troops as a follow-up to its earlier decision to exercise “maximum restraint” on the LoC. The statement by Pak military said, “The move-back has already commenced and the troops have started moving towards cantonments”. The statement made it clear that the decision was taken to try to push the peace processed forward. The announcement, however, did not indicate from where the forces were being withdrawn.

India reacted cautiously to new initiative by Pakistan. While the Defence Minister said, Pakistan’s claim about pullout will have to be verified first, the Foreign Office spokesman said any such measure by Pakistan which reduced tension in the region was welcome. He, however, rejected Islamabad’s suggestion that New Delhi do the same and resort to partial pull-out simultaneously. He said, Islamabad’s assertion on troop reduction has to be verified by the Army before India responds to the new initiative. He rejected Pakistan’s demand that India reduce its forces in Jammu and Kashmir and said, its force strength is determined in response to the threat India faces from the encouragement, abetment and incitement of terrorism and infiltration of terrorists into the valley.

While the Defence Minister, Mr. George Fernandes, acknowledged at a function in Mysore on Dec. 17 that barring a few incidents of exchange of fire on the border, the situation was peaceful, he said, the Government would have to verify at ground level before commenting on Islamabad’s claims to have undertaken a partial withdrawal of troops from the Line of Control in Jammu and A Kashmir. He asked: “How were the troops withdrawn. Were they moved by road or aircraft, as the cantonments are far back in the rear.” He also said that the Pakistan army’s announcement had not mentioned the areas from where the troops had been withdrawn and the strength of the reported withdrawal.

The Indian security forces, which have been tackling the Pakistan-backed militants in Kashmir for the last decade, do not expect Pakistan to make a U turn on its Kashmir policy or remove troops from the permanent posts on the 740- km Line of Control Pakistan cannot take a 180 degree turn on its Kashmir policy. Faced with the cold and the chilling fact that one out of every ten Pakistanis carries an AK-47 rifle, the junta cannot rein them in. If they do so, the armed men will let loose a reign of terror in Pakistan, some officials point out.

Though Pakistan announced the withdrawal of its troops from the fringes of the LOC on Dec. 20, military intelligence sources insist, the pull-out actually began more than a month ago when it withdraw two battalions [a battalion has 800 troops], deployed as reserves in the area facing the Dras-Kargil-Batalik sectors, last month. The withdrawal was linked to lower threat perception and the area getting snowbound. Post-Kargil, Islamabad had pushed in the 19 Division [a division has 8000 to 10,000 troops] which has three brigades and is part of the Mangla-based I Strike Corps of Pakistan.

Sources say, it is possible that this pre-decided pullout is now being timed with the Prime Minister, Mr. Vajpayee’s statement in Parliament so that suitable “political mileage” could be drawn. The Indian security establishment is also keenly observing whether Pakistan will reduce forces from the sensitive Sunderbani-Poonch alignment north of Jammu. Pakistan had earlier beefed up its forces under the Rawalpoindi-based 10 corps to promote larger induction of militants into the Kashmir valley. Not surprisingly, two brigades of the Pakistan Army’s 19 division had been sent to beef up forces in the area. A pullout of forces in this area can therefore signal Pakistan’s intent to reduce infiltration from this area.



Hurriyat welcomes ceasefire - Jehadi groups reject

In another welcome development, the All Parties Hurriyat Conference cleared the deck for the long awaited dialogue on Kashmir. The Executive Committee meeting of the APHC at Srinagar papered over the internal differences to pass a resolutions welcoming the ceasefire and reiterating the demand that they should be allowed to visit Pakistan to pave the way for peaceful and successful negotiations. The resolution steered clear of setting down conditions and ensured that the door was kept open for Delhi to step in. For instance, their demand of having no talks within the framework of the Indian Constitution was not made part of the final resolution and nor was any effort made to insist on a tripartite dialogue at the onset. Political observers say, the final result should make the Vajpayee Government happy as it puts no obstacles in the way of an early dialogue between the Government and the Kashmiri groups.

Of course, this was not without a price, with the APHC divided bitterly over what have come to be perceived as the hardliners and the moderates based on their affinity to Pakistan and otherwise. Jamaat-e-Islami’s Ali Shah Geelani made it very clear that he was, one,suspicious of the Government’s sincerity, and two, he would not like the Hurriyat to lose its credibility in the region as a result. Others like Yasin Malik, Maulvi Omar Farooq Abdul Ghani Lone and this time Abdul Ghani Butt as well, very vocal in their desire to keep the door open, and not allow any harsh rhetoric into the resolution that could queer the pitch. Yasin Malik was provoked sufficiently to hit an activist of the Peoples League, Muktar Ahmed Waza, who raised pro-Pakistan slogans when he came out of the meeting. It was clear that there is a section of activists who are resisting the APHC initiative to steer the Jammu and Kashmir dispute out of the Pakistan bag, into what they hope, can eventually be seen as neutral territory.

For long, the pro-Pakistan group had held sway over the Kashmir problem with the Hurriyat, a conglomeration of 20 odd groups, being a willing party to the same. It is only recently that some influential leaders of the APHC have given an indication that they would like to see a change in the old line, and that they were quite prepared to strike an equal distance between Delhi and Islamabad in their desire to see a just and unbiased solution for Kashmir. Mr. Geelani still represents the old order and at the Executive Committee meeting, is reported to have objected to Mr. Lone’s statements in Pakistan that the foreign militants’ operation in the State were a threat to peace. Mr. Lone and others were not prepared to relinquish political control to foreign militants and this was made clear at the meeting when the latter said that these people could fight but could not determine its political future on behalf of the local population.



Jehadi opposition to dialogue

While the Hurriyat Conference leaders appear amenable to a political deal in which the aspirations of the people of Kashmir are addressed, the Jehadi groups continue to be opposed to the process of dialogue. They sent out this message when a group of four gun-wielding militants led by Hizbul Mujahideen district commander, Mujahid Basit, appeared at the Jama Masjid in Srinagar on Dec. 22 and vowed to fight against any sellout on Kashmir. A militant fired a few shots in the air before leaving. On the same day, a suicide squad, suspectedly belonging to the Pak-based Laskar-e-Toiba, struck at the high-security Red Fort in Delhi killing three soldiers and injuring two others. The two militants barged into the sensitive area catching unawares the soldiers stationed inside the premises. This was the first attack by armed terrorists on the army installation in the capital. The Lashkar-e-Toiba had threatened to strike in the capital during the month of Ramzan. According to reports, two militants barged into the high security zone around nine thirty when a party was going on. Carrying AK-47 rifles, they started firing indiscriminately from automatic rifles at the pockets of the army units before making good their escape.

The Red Fort attack was a clear cut message to Mr. Vajpayee that his Kashmir initiative holds no meaning for prominent pro-Pakistan, non-Kashmiri dominated militant outfit, Lashkar-e-Toiba. Its commander, Abu Usama said in a newspaper interview claimed that the attacks had been carried out by two PoK-based militants, Bashir Ali Wani and Syed Mohammed Ali. The Defence Minister, Mr. George Fernandes, who took a round of Red Fort has ordered a high level joint army and police inquiry into the security lapses that led the militants to storm the high security complex. He told newsmen that it shows that Pakistan was not interested in the peace process. The Prime Minister is said to have taken a dim view of the shootout. In particular, there is all round disappointment that the militants were allowed to get away. Apprehending more attacks, the Delhi police has sounded a red alert in the capital and conducted searches in several guest houses all over the city.

In the meanwhile, the Indian Government is keeping a tab on the meeting of the key militant groups and their supporters in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is playing host to representatives of Kashmir militant groups as well as some Pakistanis to address some of the obstacles coming in the way of peace talks. From India, the chief of the Jamaat-e-Islami [Kashmir] G.M. Bhatt, was due to go to Saudi Arabia to attend the meeting. According to highly-placed sources in the Government, the Hizbul Mujahideen chief, Syed Salahuddin, is already in Saudi Arabia to apparently perform Umrah. He will be joined by his top commander in Kashmir, Abdul Majid Dar. Two representatives of All-Party Hurriyat Conference, another two from the Pakistan Foreign Office, representatives of Jamaat-e-Islami [Pakistan], the Lashkar-e-Toiba the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and a contingent from Saudi Arabia are also expected to participate.

One of the prime objectives of the conference is to “persuade” the Jehadi groups to bend their hardline position on Kashmir. analysts say Saudi Arabia holds the key to “softening” the Lashkar and the Harkat through a “carrot and stick” approach. Riyadh, because of its past financial and ideological linkages with some of the Jehadi groups, exercises tremendous leverage over them. For instance, Saudi Arabia was one of the key financiers of the Harkat-ul-Ansar, renamed Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, since the mid-1990s. Led by Fazlur Rahman Khalil, the Harkat is said to be the military wing of the Jamiat-e-Ulema-i-Islam or JUI. The JUI, led by Maulana Fazlur Rahman, a former chairman of Pakistan national Assembly’s standing Committee on foreign affairs, enjoys close ties with the Saudis. Saudi Arabia also exercises considerable ideological influence over Lashkar-e-Toiba, the military wing of the Markaz Dawate wal Irshad, based in Muridke near Lahore. The Lashkar’s members are practitioners of the Ahle Hadis, with doctrinal roots among the Whabis of Saudi Arabia.