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Fears of US attack on Iran – Split with Europe |
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Harjit Singh
A war in the Gulf is looming large once again. The strong statements from the US against Iran, the accusation of Iranian interference in Iraq and the despatch of a huge naval flotilla by the United States to the Gulf is raising fears of a possible American air attack on the Iranian nuclear sites, notwithstanding the strong denials emanating from Washington.
There are fears in European capitals that the nuclear crisis could come to a head in the coming months because of US frustration with the Russian stalling tactics in the UN Security Council. A steady flow of American officials, from the CIA director to the new Secretary of Defence, are citing intelligence that Iranians are smuggling into Iraq sophisticated explosive devices and detailed plans to wipe out Sunni neighbourhoods. These statements are viewed in many European and West Asian capitals as a prelude to an attack on Iran because of the US disappointment over the lacklustre UN Security Council resolution on stopping Iran from going ahead with its nuclear weapons programme.
The statements emerging from the United States and the military activity in the Gulf has alarmed many US allies in Europe and West Asia who, unlike in the past, are not likely to even remotely approve of President Bush’s military adventure in the last year of his Presidency. The Democrats, who now control both Houses of the US Congress, also oppose any US attack.
Of course, responding to the impression prevailing in many capitals that the US was itching to attack Iran with or without the help of Israel, US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns has emphatically said, “We are not looking for a fight with Iran” and citing the President’s words, insisted that Washington was committed to a “diplomatic path”. But, to many in Washington, especially Bush’s Democratic critics, the new approach to Iran has all the hallmarks of an administration once again spoiling for a fight.
Many statements emerging from the US leadership in the last few weeks, the arrest of five Iranian diplomats in Iraq, the accusation of Iran going ahead with its enrichment programme despite UN resolution, accusing Iran of aiding Iraqi insurgents, and on top of it, sending two aircraft carriers and 50 warships to the Gulf, are strong indicators of President Bush spoiling for a war once again. No wonder, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has warned the United States and Iran to take their quarrel elsewhere, saying he would not permit his battered country to be caught in the cross-fire.
As a warning to Iran, a new US carrier battle group has been despatched to the Gulf. USS John C. Stennis, with a crew of 3200 and around 80 fixed-wing aircraft, including F/A-8 Hornet and Superhornet fighter-bombers, eight support ships and four nuclear submarines is heading for the Gulf. The Bush Administration plans to shortly come out with a dossier of charges of alleged Iranian subversion in Iraq. The US has accused Iran of supplying Iraqi insurgents with weapons technology used to kill American troops. A senior US diplomat issued a strong warning to Iran against interfering in Iraq. Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns even alleged that the US military in Iraq had picked up some Iranians who were giving to Shia insurgent groups sophisticated explosives technology to target and kill American soldiers. The No. 2 US General in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno said, the US military has captured powerful weapons from insurgents including Katyushas rockets which bear serial numbers that trace them back to Iran. The US has already captured five Iranians in Iraq who, Teheran says, were working with an Iranian diplomatic mission, but the US alleges, were Iranian intelligence men helping Shias against Sunnis in the sectarian violence. President Bush himself has issued a strong warning to Iran that the US would respond firmly if it continued to foment violence inside Iraq, though he said he had no intention of invading Iran. The US has also accused Iran of seeking help from North Korea for an underground nuclear test.
Of course, at this stage, the Americans have not disclosed any hard evidence, but in the coming days, they are expected to make their most comprehensive case based on materials allegedly seized in recent raids, that Iran’s elite Quds force was behind many of the most lethal attacks in Iraq.
Many senior European policy makers are expressing the fear that the US seems keen to repeat what it did in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq – launch a military offensive. But, unlike four years ago, they are unlikely to support it because Iran is not Iraq and the oil rich country offers huge prospects of doing business with. The attack could also result in the world oil prices shooting upto over $100 a barrel. Already trade with Iran is splitting US and Europe and the European Governments are resisting the Bush Administration demand that they curtail support for exports to Iran and that they block transactions and freeze assets of some Iranian companies.
Military analysts describe as ‘catastrophic’ the situation resulting from US air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran may erase the oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf, blockade the Strait of Hormuz by sinking oil tankers in it and start a war against Iraq, pulling the US deeper into the quagmire. It will also make Iran harden its stand on the nuclear issue.
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