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Elections 2004 : Exit polls shake NDA

	May 03, 2004

Exit poll projections after the second major round of voting on April 26 showed the National Democratic Alliance still firmly in the lead, but in danger of falling short of the majority-mark. Assessments have talked of a hung Parliament; and one even predicting that the ruling alliance could end up nearly 40 short of the halfway mark. But it must be understood that the second round of voting covered territory where the BJP-NDA was under pressure and not expected to do well; in the remaining two rounds of voting its performance can only improve.

Most TV channels that conducted exit polls over 136 seats where voting took place, showed a big gap between the number of seats that the BJP and Congress-led alliances were expected to get. But the Congress had reasons to cheer: it might end up with more seats than it had in the last Lok Sabha.

The Aaj Tak (TV channel belonging to the India Today group) poll gave NDA 144 of the 276 seats for which polling took place in the two major rounds till now. This was 28 less than in the last elections. The Congress combine was set to get 100, a gain of 31 seats. This was largely due to the way the polling went in Andhra Pradesh, with the ruling Telugu Desam struggling to retain power, where the Congress gained 24 seats; and in Maharashtra, where it was set to get 15 more.

Projecting these exit poll results further, Aaj Tak forecast a hung Parliament. Out of the total 543 seats, it predicted 266 for the Vajpayee-led NDA. This was 91 more than what it projected for the Congress combine (175), but still six seats short of the halfway mark. Others parties - from where the NDA will have to hunt for post-poll allies - will get 102 seats, Aaj Tak’s Early Seat Projection said.

Star TV’s exit poll gives the NDA 68 to 80 seats from the 136 which figured in the second round. The Congress-led alliance will get anywhere between 38 and 50 seats, leaving between 12 and 24 for other parties. The channel predicted that this will translate into between 267 and 279 seats for the NDA. The Congress combine might get between 160 and 172 seats.

NDTV predicted a closer race. It said the NDA will end up with 235 to 255 seats when the final tally was taken. The Congress will get between 190 and 210. Out of just the last round, the channel predicted 68-80 for the NDA, 38-50 for the Congress and its allies and 12-24 to others.

Sahara Samay Television gave the NDA 174 of the 278 seats which have so far gone to the polls (including the two in Manipur). The Congress combine will get 99. This again was 23 more than what the Congress and its allies got in 1999. Sahara said the BJP’s tally from these two rounds will be 19 less than what it actually got, going by the 1999 results from the same constituencies.

The Zee TV survey showed the BJP-led coalition getting 54 seats, Congress alliance 46 and others 36 in April 26 polling.

In Uttar Pradesh, the 32 seats which went to the polls threw up no clear favourite - and the NDA got only a small share out of the big UP kitty. Star predicted the NDA will get 12 seats, Congress combine six, Bahujan Samaj Party five and the Samajwadi Party eight. Aaj Tak gives the NDA 11, the Congress three, the Bahujan Samaj Party four and Samajwadi Party 13. Going by the Aaj Tak poll, the Samajwadi Party has gained three seats, and the BJP lost two in the state, compared to the results from the same 32 seats in 1999. NDTV did an early projection for the entire state based on what its exit poll showed. It said the BJP, SP and BSP will get about the same numbers of seats - between 21 and 23 each - and the Congress 13.

The channels don’t always agree. In Bihar the NDTV exit poll predicted that the Laloo Prasad Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress combine will get 24 of the total 40 seats. But Star, Aaj Tak and Zee showed the NDA in a comfortable lead over the 28 seats where polling has already taken place. Out of the 28 seats - Star gave NDA 20, Aaj Tak 18 and Zee 14.

For the Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, Star reported that there was bad news. In Karnataka, it predicted a six per cent swing towards the BJP-led coalition, and a nine per cent swing away from the Congress combine. That would mean that the NDA will get between 107-119 seats in the Assembly, compared to a maximum 92 for the Congress and its allies.

In Andhra Pradesh, Aaj Tak predicted that the TDP-BJP alliance would not fare well, losing 24 seats to end up with 12. The Congress will win 29 of 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Zee gave 24 seats to the Congress combine, 16 to the TDP-BJP and two to others. But Sahara predicted that the TDP-BJP alliance will do better - 25 seats against the Congress combine’s 16.

In Karnataka, BJP-Janata Dal(United) would perform better (15 seats) than the Congress alliance (11) over the 28 Lok Sabha seats, according to Aaj Tak. But Zee predicted otherwise: nine seats for the NDA alliance and 12 for the Congress combine.

In Maharashtra, Aaj Tak said the Congress-NCP alliance will get 25 Lok Sabha seats - a gain of 14 seats - and the BJP-Shiv Sena combine 21, which is seven less than last time. Zee also showed the BJP-Shiv Sena losing nine seats, and getting nine. It gave 16 to the Congress-NCP alliance.

Former Union Minister Arun Nehru, who has emerged as a sort of poll pundit, feels after going through the different exit polls, that the final figure may be 280-285 Lok Sabha seats for the NDA with the BJP close to 200 seats and Congress-allies close to 160 seats. The Congress may get 95-100 seats on its own, and the Left, the SP, the BSP and others about 100 seats.

In Bihar, the ruling the RJD-combine is estimated to win 23-25 seats. But Nehru feels it may not go beyond 11-13 seats.

In Gujarat, the NDTV, based on 1 per cent negative swing gives the Congress 8 seats, but ground reports indicate a minimum of 21 and a maximum of 23 seats for the BJP!

In Tamil Nadu, the assessments on a DMK group’s win vary, as will the figures on the seats the TDP-BJP will secure in Andhra Pradesh. And all this can make a difference of 30 seats in the tally when counting takes place on May 13.



BJP’s new strategy

Exit polls after the second round of Lok Sabha elections on April 26 have obviously not been too flattering to the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA and this has spurred BJP campaign managers to redouble their efforts for the remaining two rounds of polls in the crucial states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Some of the states considered BJP strongholds like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are yet to go to the polls and this brings cheer to the party. The BJP, observers say, should retain and if possible, even improve its score in these States, if it had to make up for the losses reportedly incurred by its allies in some states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Muslim voters have emerged as a crucial factor in BJP calculations, and if they were to choose the Samajwadi Party en bloc, the BJP will be at a disadvantage. In a shrewd move to confuse and divide Muslim voters, top BJP leaders including Prime Minister Vajpayee have been talking of a “similarity” of views with SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, hinting that they could come together after the elections, a suggestion strongly refuted by the SP. Vajpayee told Muslims that the Samajwadi Party boss was their best bet and they should vote for him. Observers feel it is possible that Vajpayee was softening up Chief Minister Mulayam Singh for a post-poll relationship in the event of a hung Parliament. It is also possible that the BJP is genuinely worried about Muslim votes going to the Congress instead of consolidating around Mulayam Singh’s party. Should those votes help Congress bag a few seats in a close fight, it could spell trouble for the NDA, since those seats would be a complete loss to the alliance.

If some Muslims, indeed, start having misgivings about Mulayam, they might vote for the Congress. And in the event of a split in Muslim vote, BJP might be able to squeeze through in certain UP Lok Sabha constituencies where the fight is really close. The question then arises, why should Vajpayee prefer votes going to the Congress, the main BJP rival ? Primarily because, in UP, the BJP does not rate Congress’ chances very highly and sees Mulayam as the main threat. Splitting SP votes could thus help the BJP.

The SP is reportedly thinking of the viability of floating a Third Front, consisting of smaller parties, with a significant number of seats to help in the formation of a new government at the Centre. Though the idea will have enthusiastic support from the Left Front, parties like Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of former Bihar Chief Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav or the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of former UP Chief Minister Mayawati are unlikely to back up Mulayam efforts. Laloo Yadav, in fact, is a strong votary of Congress president Sonia Gandhi.



Stability factor

BJP plans to do “saturation campaigning” in Uttar Pradesh for May 10 elections. Some call it an over-reaction to the exit polls. The party is re-activating its workers and those of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in all districts of the State. During the campaigns, Prime Minister Vajpayee, and Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani, will touch almost every Lok Sabha constituency in the State yet to go to the polls. Besides, senior leaders like Pramod Mahajan and Sushma Swaraj have been concentrating on UP and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh will join them. Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Uma Bharti will also devote some time to UP. “We will try to get the maximum number of the remaining 48 seats in the State,” party spokesman Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi added. The BJP has 13 “sitting MPs” from these 48 constituencies. The party lost six seats by margins under 10,000 votes and under its new strategy the party has decided to pay special attention in these constituencies.

The “India Shining” campaign is now in the backdrop. The NDA has now been reminding people why they should vote for stability and not for those who just want to grab power at any cost. Prime Minister Vajpayee, his Deputy Advani, BJP president Venkaiah Naidu and party general-secretary Pramod Mahajan kept the all-out offensive going in no uncertain manner, each seeking to lay threadbare the shortcomings of the Opposition and the harm electing it to power would cause to the nation. The BJP has been focusing on its ability to provide political stability to the country apart from development issues.

At an election rally in Aligarh, Vajpayee said if the National Democratic Alliance does not get a majority, the country could see another spell of political instability. The Prime Minister reminded the voters of the situation post-1977 when the first non-Congress Government disintegrated due to infighting after the ouster of the Indira Gandhi-led Congress regime. A similar race for the prime-ministership is on in the Opposition camp, he said. Power-hungry politicians will not make the task of an alternative government easy. The Opposition leaders were showing “undue haste to grab” the top post in the wake of the Exit Poll predictions of a hung House. The Prime Minister said that the Exit Polls put his alliance ahead of the Congress, but admitted that the rivals were catching up, which was “not expected by us”. But one has to await the real picture that will emerge only after the results are declared, he added.

Keeping up the attack on the Congress, recently BJP spokesperson and Law Minister Arun Jaitley called the Congress-led alliance as a bundle of contradictions. “On many issues the allies in the Congress-led alliance hold divergent views. They do not see eye to eye and now they are claiming to give a stable government,” Jaitley said. Besides, he said, there are many claimants for the post of prime minister. Then, there was the personality clash among so-called secular leaders. Laloo Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav are baying for each other’s blood, while the personality clash between Sonia Gandhi and Sharad Pawar is well known. On the other hand Mulayam and Mayawati do not see eye-to-eye. “In comparison, the NDA led by Prime Minister Vajpayee is stable. The alliance has a vision. The Prime Minister has shown that under his leadership the country has become strong in all spheres,” he added.



Congress in revival mode

The Congress is, nevertheless, once again on a revival mode. Party chief Sonia Gandhi has been joined by children Rahul and Priyanka, for the final thrust and public response has been quite encouraging. The Congress was virtually written off by the BJP which had been claiming that the party will not even touch three figure mark. But the BJP now sees a serious threat from the Congress-led combine and with other parties even reaching somewhere around 250 seats. In such a situation, there is a chance of the BJP-led ruling alliance (NDA) breaking up and some of the parties moving towards the Congress-Left combine.

But by no means, can the NDA be written off at the moment as it is still the leading coalition, much ahead of the rest. If it falls short of the magical figure of 272 by around 10 Lok Sabha seats, there will be no serious problem. Only if the tally goes below majority by 30-40 seats, the NDA could be in trouble.

At the tactical level, the Congress is reacting to the new BJP stability plank. In a significant stand, the party has said it will distance itself from a repeat of the 1996 experiment, when it supported smaller parties to share power at the Centre and it will not support a Third Front Government. “It has to be our (Congress) Government only, as others being smaller parties would not have the peoples’ mandate,” party spokesperson Kapil Sibal has said. There is no question of his party supporting a Third Front Government as none of its constituents would be in a position to stake a claim to head a coalition. With the crucial rounds of polling ahead and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s electoral plank of providing political stability seems to be gaining in strength, the Congress stand, analysts say, is understandable. It is keen to ward off suspicion in the minds of prospective voters that it will not be able to provide a viable alternative to the Vajpayee-led Government.

Observers note that the Congress assertion is unlikely to go down well with its prospective allies, who nurse ambition to somehow make it to the seat of power. NCP chief Sharad Pawar has already said it was not necessary that the single largest party had to head a non-NDA Government and has recalled that H.D. Deve Gowda with 17 MPs had become the prime Minister of a Front government. Sibal has asserted that Congress president Sonia Gandhi was the undoubted choice of the party to head the Government, but in the event of a coalition, the leader will be decided by the partners.

While declining to support a Third Front Government, the Congress is yet to reveal its plan for post-poll alliances. It is in a quandary. On the one hand, the Congress is fighting regional parties like the SP and the BSP in Uttar Pradesh and on the other, it hopes for at least one of the two making up for the numerical strength in its favour after the poll.

While some states going to the polls in the next round like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are expected to return BJP MPs, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh are proving to be critical. But it is Lucknow’s shadow over New Delhi that is determining the response of the political parties at present. The key players in the state are BSP leader Mayawati and SP leader, Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav.

BSP’s Mayawati has not revealed her cards. She has been critical of the BJP as well as the Congress. She could therefore, go to either side. UP Chief Minister and Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav is presently in the limelight. RJD chief Laloo Prasad Yadav, another king-maker and the staunch Congress ally, climbed down from his stated position that UP Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav is not welcome into the non-NDA alliance. “We’ll not accept his dictates or conditions. So long as he supports the secular alliance, it’s all right. But, we’ll not tolerate any nuisance,” he said. After Laloo Yadav’s attack on Mulayam Singh, Lok Janshakti Party chief Ram Vilas Paswan accused the SP leader of splitting secular votes and playing into the BJP’s hands. “It is no secret now that Mulayam is playing into the hands of the BJP. He has fielded scores of candidates in Bihar to split secular votes. He has also spared no effort in ensuring the defeat of the Congress in UP,” he said.

The Congress is watching the play of words between Laloo and Mulayam and is hopeful of getting them together. It is understood that although officially keeping a safe distance from secular-minded Samajwadi Party and BSP the Congress has privately begun to talk with them as potential post-poll allies with whom it may have to do business. Reliable sources cite two reasons for any sudden change in the posture towards the SP and the BSP: one is the obvious jostling for Muslim and Dalit (low caste) votes with these parties and the other is the abundant caution dictated by the fact that both parties had repeatedly rebuffed all overtures at forging pre-poll alliances, causing much bitterness in the anti-NDA camp.

At the same time, however, the Congress recognises that it may have to draw upon the support of the SP and the BSP in order to take a credible shot at government formation.

The same consideration caused the party to wink at the statement of West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya about the revival of the “third front” in a Hung House-situation. With the Left sure to return with at least a 50-strong bloc in the 14th Lok Sabha, the Congress would avoid engaging it in a point-scoring game.

Congress sources put on a bold front while discussing prospects. While they concede that the party could lose seats in Karnataka, Punjab and Assam, in the rest of the country, they are hopeful of what they call a cyclical upturn in their party’s favour. It is even claimed that an internal survey predicts the party and its allies getting 240-265 seats. The party’s hopes of a comeback stem from this positive prognosis. “This is the figure that encourages us to think in terms of forming the next government at the Centre”, said a party office-bearer. But it is conceded that even if the prediction comes true, it may not guarantee acceptance of Sonia Gandhi as Prime Minister. It is recognised in the Congress that the leadership issue will remain unresolved till the actual results come in.



Game of numbers in post-poll scenario

After the exit polls prediction that a hung Parliament is possible, the parties have started looking seriously at the post-poll scenario so as not to be caught off-guard when the results are declared on May 13.

Analysts feel that in the case of a hung parliament, there can be two options. Firstly the NDA can invite more parties into its fold to make up the shortfall. The BJP senior leaders have already shown their interest in this. Chances of formation of such a government are more likely as this coalition may have more Lok Sabha seats than any other.

The other coalition government that can be formed will be the combination of non-BJP parties and non-National Democratic Alliance parties. Already the CPI (M), has reportedly taken the initiative to try and consolidate the non-NDA parties. The CPI (M) leaders are said to be in touch with Samajwadi Party chief, Mulayam Singh Yadav, DMK leader M. Karunanidhi, RJD president Laloo Prasad Yadav, NCP leader Sharad Pawar, and a number of smaller parties. The aim is to ensure that all of them support the formation of a secular government and that they are not outmanoeuvred in the event of the NDA not getting a majority in the 14th Lok Sabha.

It seems that the Left is keen on avoiding a repetition of the 1999 scenario after the Vajpayee Government lost the vote of confidence in Parliament when the secular parties could not get their act together. One of the “issues” at that time was the leadership question and Mulayam Singh Yadav refused to come up with the requisite support for the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi. This time, the CPI (M) leaders are busy working behind the scenes to sort out the issue, preferably before May 13.

The current verbal sparring between Laloo Yadav and Mulayam Singh has come as a disappointment to the Left parties, as they would like to avoid a split in the secular ranks. In an interview to a television channel, Laloo Yadav has affirmed that he would have no truck with Mulayam Singh.

Laloo Yadav has charged Mulayam Singh with acting at the behest of the BJP to divide the secular vote. He has put up candidates in consultation with the BJP so that the RJD votes are cut, alleged the RJD chief, who has been apparently upset by the 40 candidates put up by the SP in Bihar when the SP does not command that kind of strength in the State. Mulayam is doing everything he can to help them, Laloo Yadav has claimed.

The Congress assessment is that Laloo Yadav will certainly not go along with any formation that has Mulayam Singh as prime minister, but that “neither Laloo Prasad nor the Nationalist Congress Party of Sharad Pawar would have any problem working with Sonia Gandhi.” There is also the view that the BJP is deliberately trying to encourage Mulayam Singh to act as the spoiler. The fact is that to Mulayam Singh’s discomfiture, the BJP has openly talked of him as a “potential” post-poll ally. The result has been a reported shift of a section of the Muslim votes away from the Samajwadi Party to the Congress.

Another view is that the Congress seems to be getting ready to make any compromise to replace the NDA with another hotch-potch government at the Centre, irrespective of its longevity, because it feels this will force the BJP to go back to its original Hindutva (Hindu activism) agenda and alienate it from other parties, according to Congress strategists. The party is determined to replace the NDA at the Centre no matter how long a new coalition will last. The change could compel the BJP to go back to its “communal” agenda and thus isolate it from secular parties, both at the national and state levels.

The party is in an upbeat mood for two reasons. One, the minorities are returning to the party; and two, the BJP is desperate to retain its position in this crucial battle for power. The Congress strategists feel the BJP would face a leadership void after the poll due to the age of Prime Minister Vajpayee and his Deputy L.K. Advani.

Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, according to the strategists, cannot afford to back the BJP-led NDA as it would be political suicide. But, at the same, it will not join a secular coalition for the simple reason that Mulayam Singh himself wants to become Prime Minister. They say Mulayam Singh would surely put several conditions (including that of anybody other than Sonia Gandhi, to become Prime Minister) before backing a secular front.

The assessment is that though the SP, the BSP and Laloo Yadav’s RJD are not getting along well with each other, none of them can afford to be friendly with the BJP in the post-election scenario for the simple reason that this would send the wrong signals to their political constituencies.

The uncertain political scenario has revived the talk of the Third Front once again. Earlier, both the NDA and the Congress had dismissed the possibility of a Third Front emerging in the current political scenario. Predicting a hung Lok Sabha, former Prime Ministers Chandrashekhar and V P Singh have, however, said a Third Front government looked unlikely.

Both Chandrashekhar and V P Singh said it looked like there would be a hung Parliament adding those projecting more than 300 seats for NDA were “day dreaming.” According to Chandrashekhar, the realignment of forces in the post-poll scenario would gravitate towards the camp that would most likely be in a position to form the government. This, more or less, sums up the present political scenario.