India News Online » News Analysis » Indian Politics » 

Elections 2004 : BJP plans major poll offensive

	April 05, 2004

The NDA, led by the BJP, appears to be in a strong position with all surveys indicating in its favour. The only issue is the margin with which it will win. Although the Congress has been aggressive in its campaign, its leadershp has given the voters little logic on why they should vote the NDA out.

The BJP, however, is not resting on the “feel good factor” to see it through in the Lok sabha elections. On April 6, the party’s Foundation Day, 27 of its top leaders, including the Prime Minister, the Deputy PM, seven chief ministers, eight cabinet ministers, five Ministers of State, four party functionaries and several actors will launch the party’s “Chunavi Mahasangram” (election battle). The BJP’s objective, according to party general secretary Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, is to make India a superpower by 2020. The Prime Minister, interestingly, will be in Guwahati that day - a sign that the BJP is making a major push in the North East - while Advani, significantly, will be in Ayodhya.

Naqvi has disclosed development, good governance and the leadership of Vajpayee would be the party’s main theme. He also made it clear that a frontal attack on the Congress - with party chief Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin - would be the centrepiece of the BJP’s campaign. Naqvi asked the Congress to clarify whether its election issues were distinct from the policies and programmes of its alliance, whether Congress had given the alliance the leadership or if its alliance leaders were leading the tie-up, explain how a leaderless Congress alliance could provide a stable government; and who was the prime ministerial candidate of the alliance.

The BJP appears to be determined to prevent people of foreign origin from holding high constitutional offices in India, if it is returned to power at the centre. This has been made clear by NDA convener George Fernandes who has said the NDA manifesto will highlight the issue. The manifesto would be released by the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, on April 8.

Fernandes said it was a ‘shame’ that the Congress, with more than a century-old history, had not been able to produce a person born in the country to lead the party now and choose him or her as the prime ministerial candidate. “It is a disgrace for the Congress and this will definitely be an election issue. The people of the country should be saved from the humiliation of a person of foreign origin holding the reins of power.”

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani’s rath yatra (tour on chariot) enters Ayodhya on April 5. Those inclined towards symbolism may find it significant the Hindu God that Lord Rama returned to Ayodhya after a 14-year exile centuries ago. But the analogy ends right there. While Ram’s return was greeted with festivities and celebration, Advani is unlikely to encounter any fuss or fanfare. The BJP cadre might work up some enthusiasm - after all this is election season - but for the residents, there is hardly any excitement. Even BJP supporters don’t seem too eager to join in the celebrations.

Besides, there may be no one from the Vishwa Hindu Parishad - Advani’s fiercest supporters at one time - to receive him when he enters Ayodhya. The bigger leaders are away in Ujjain for a congregation. Those in town plan to remind Advani of his pledge to build the temple.



Uttar Pradesh : Crucial SP-RLD alliance

Most opinion polls have indicated that the biggest gainers or losers will not be the Congress, or the BJP, but their allies. It is, therefore, important to understant state politics. UP is a state in example where both the national parties have little to gain.

The factors that led to the alliance between Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) and Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal(RLD) may not be obvious but it is clear that the Uttar Pradesh politics have become extremely complicated and perplexed with each political party yearning for its share of power. Very few would take Mulayam Singh’s statement seriously when he claims that the aim of the alliance is not to make the government but to save the nation from the anti-secular and anti-farmer policies of the BJP-led government.

Analysts believe that the alliance has proved that he is shwred politician and understands the voters of the state. There is a larger meaning in the political alliance that Ajit Singh, Charan Singh’s son and RLD president, and Mulayam Singh Yadav have struck. As his father had done, Ajit Singh also joined hands with Mulayam Singh in the 1980s. But ultimately the two went their own ways, seeking greater individual and political power. Obviously, both leaders have had a change of heart and there is no doubt that the primary motivation has been compulsions of electoral politics.

Though the RLD has never fought elections alone, it is considered a powerful force in western UP. In 1999, Ajit Singh fought Lok Sabha elections along with Congress whereas in 2002, it tied up with the BJP. The party had gained considerably from both the alliances and strengthened itself in the region. It has mass support from the agricultural based population and perhaps this is the reason why Yadav thought it is wise to have the coalition with them.

One would wonder why he didn’t go for the alliance earlier. Observers believe that Mulayam Singh Yadav wanted to cut into the RLD’s agriculture sector-oriented political base and carve out a significant position for itself in the region. But he had failed very badly. Though Ajit Singh lacks the charisma of his father Ch. Charan Singh, he is very popular in that region.

There is another factor that prompted Mulayam to forge the alliance. The Samajwadi Party is known for its pro-Muslim policies and thus enjoys the popularity among the community. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the SP lost its Muslim base almost entirely in the “Jat belt seats” such as Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana and Saharanpur.

It is believed that this happened because the Muslims believed that the SP is not sufficient enough to defeat the communal BJP forces. The second option in front of them was Congress which has then tied up with RLD. But now as Congress’ popularity has gone down among the Msslims, the SP wants to gain the Muslim votes through RLD in western UP.

The RLD sees its own advantages in the alliance. Firstly, the SP is in power in the states. Secondly, the BJP has lost its popularity due to its ties with Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party(BSP). Obviously, the SP is going to gain fom this. This is the reason why the party decided to contest 10 seats leaving the rest 70 to SP.



Orissa : BJD faces tough competition

As Orissa will have Lok Sabha and Assembly polls simultaneously, doubts have been raised on the prospects of victory of the ruling BJD-BJP combination. There are not many parties that are contesting in the state. Thus it is going to a straight fight between the combined forces of BJD-BJP and the Congress. There are some strong independent leaders in the fray. The Congress has entered into seat adjustments with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (five seats), the Orissa Gana Parishad (four seats) and the CPI(M) (three seats) in an attempt to curb split in the anti-incumbency votes.

Political analysts believe that the coming elections would not be as easy as the BJD-BJP leaders thought it was. They wanted to encash the advantage of the feel-good factor that was generated after the BJP’s victory in the last Assembly elections. This is the reason why they decided to hold elections 13 months ahead of the schedule. Experts believe that the strong position of a particular party at the Centre does not help it win the Assembly elections. In 1971, when the simultaneous parliament and assembly elections were held in the state, the then ruling party at the Centre, Congress had swept the Lok Sabha polls in the state, it had lost in its attempt to win majority in the assembly. The assembly elections are dominated by local issues.

Observers believe that the victory of the combine in the last elections was more due to the weakening of the Congress than its own strength. In the last elections, the Congress won only 26 seats whereas the BJP-BJD alliance had won 106 seats (the BJD 68 and the BJP 38). The position and image of the Congress during the last Assembly elections deteriorated with the charges of corruption against the then Congress government, deterioration in the law and order in the state, highlighted by the killing of Graham Staines and molestation allegation against the then advocate general and reports of irregularities in the distribution of relief to the victims of 1999 super cyclone. Things were so bad that the Congress high command had to change the chief minister thrice before 2000 Assembly polls to retrieve its dipping image.

However, this time there are no such issues that would help the ruling combine. On the other hand, they face the anti-incumbency factor. The Naveen Patnaik govt has been a non-performing one. It has failed to implement some of the mega projects like the Paradip oil refinery. A slow down in the flow of investment to the state, growing unemployment and spiralling fiscal crisis have worsened the anti-incumbancy factor.

On the other hand, the veteran Congress leader and the longest serving chief minister of the state (between 1980 and 1999), JB Patnaik, has returned to politics. His return will boost the moral of the party workers.



Bihar : RJD manifesto

Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Laloo Prasad Yadav last week released the 24-page party manifesto. The manifesto was nothing more than the usual and oft-repeated promises and assurances that the party has been doing since its emergence. But what came as a surprise is the release of two pamphlets highlighting the shortcomings of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA Government at the Centre. Observers believe that as the party does not have much to say about itself it has depend on other’s failures. Perhaps this has prompted the party to launch a pamphlet against the NDA.

Laloo Prasad Yadav spewed venom against another Yadav chieftain, Mulayam Singh Yadav, for playing into the hands of the BJP. “Mulayam Singh Yadav and his lieutenant Amar Singh are involved in the Sukhoi Air force plane purchase deal and that’s why they are playing into the hands of the BJP. The BJP and the Samajwadi Party have a tacit understanding between them but I’ll force Mulayam to bite the dust in the coming Lok Sabha elections,” vowed Yadav. He demanded that the NDA Government make the Sukhoi plane purchase file public. “If they dare to make the file public their nexus would be exposed,” he said.

Yadav also declared that he would go on a five-day election campaign against Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh. The RJD chief appeared in a belligerent mood against his Samajwadi Party counterpart as Mulayam Singh had put his party candidates on all the 40 Lok Sabha constituencies of Bihar. The party had very carefully pitted its candidates to assure maximum political damage to the RJD. However, when asked would Congress president Sonia Gandhi campaign for the secular front alliance candidates in Bihar, the RJD chief said that he did not want to disturb her. “Soniaji is a national leader and should be campaigning in other parts of Bihar but I’ll campaign for her in UP.”



Mud-slinging in campaigns

The Congress has been very aggressive lately. Recently the party launched a triple attack on the BJP and the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO). The Congress wanted a CBI probe into the misuse of the taxpayers’ money - allegedly at the behest of PMO - for the BJP’s India Shining campaign. It also accused the BJP-RSS of being “anti-national” and said the forces that were behind Mahatma Gandhi’s assassination were now denigrating his memory by including his name and those of other national heroes in its Vision Document. It also ridiculed Finance Minister Jaswant Singh’s claim of a double-digit growth rate as “misleading”. The Congress has also flayed the Government’s claim that the country has seen an economic growth of 10 per cent. It was confined to the third quarter and was pegged to a good monsoon. But the overall picture for the NDA’s five-year term was a measly 5.74 per cent growth rate, it said.

In a sharp reaction to the BJP campaign against the foreign origin of Sonia Gandhi, the Congress debunked the BJP claims of fillip to India’s nuclear muscle by pointing out that Vajpayee as External Affairs Minister had opposed the Pokhran nuclear tests in 1979.

Some of the surrogate ads on TV channels went on to allege that the RSS was not active in opposing the British, though now claimed to be nationalist in character. There were even hints of Vajpayee being an “informer.” The BJP has hit back, warning of the “perils” of the nuclear button being in the hands of a “foreigner.”

Sonia Gandhi herself has ignored attacks on her foreign origin by the BJP. She accused the BJP of focussing on non-issues like her foreign origin. “Vajpayee”, she said, “gives lectures on decency levels during the campaign, but his party colleagues do just the opposite.”

Even as the mud-slinging between the BJP and the Congress has deteriorated into an ugly war of words, the Supreme Court has stepped in to enforce the model code. To put a stop to mutual tirades by parties, it banned telecast of all political advertisements on Cable Network and TV channels which offend the “morality, decency and religious susceptibility” of viewers, and has asked the Election Commission to monitor them.

Nullifying an Andhra Pradesh High Court order allowing political advertisements, a Bench comprising Chief Justice V N Khare, Justice S B Sinha and Justice S H kapadia accepted the submissions of Attorney General Soli J Sorabjee in putting in force a ban on “political mudslinging” through surrogate advertisements.

Observing that “we are in the midst of watching a great cricket series and we do not want it to be substituted by political mudslinging”, the Bench also cautioned the Cable Networks and TV channels not to air any political advertisement that was “shocking, disgusting and revolting”. The court has asked the EC to respond on whether the money spent on advertisements by candidates for the election could be included in their election expenses, which has been limited to Rs 25 lakhs per Lok Sabha constituency and Rs 10 lakhs for Assembly seats.