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Elections 2004 : BJP dominates NDA

	April 12, 2004

Quite confident of a good showing in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party, after coming out with its Vision Document has put its stamp on the National Democratic Alliance agenda too. That the allies felt it necessary to go along with the BJP line of thinking was clear from the fact that there had been no grumblings and the BJP has been allowed to include making an attempt to find a solution to the Ayodhya issue in the NDA manifesto.

On the other hand, Congress President Sonia Gandhi is keeping her pressure tactics, attacking the Vajpayee government’s track record and debunking most of its claims. Her campaign has got the much needed fillip through the entry of son Rahul as a candidate from Amethi while daughter Priyanka is lending a helping hand. Though political developments in Uttar Pradesh did not go according to the Congress plans and both the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) are fighting it alone, splitting the anti-BJP votes, Sonia is still hopeful of a turnabout just on the eve of the elections in April and May. In the meantime, two deals involving the Bofors gun and the purchase of AK-47 for the Indian defence forces have hit the limelight with allegations of graft. The nearly two-decade old Bofors gun deal has revived once again to haunt the Gandhi family and the BJP has latched on to the issue to embarrass the Congress. In contrast, the AK-47 deal in which suspected illegal weapons were bought pales into comparison.

In another development, the government has been advised against any legal steps to ban opinion or exit polls as sought at an all-party meeting. The Congress has been continuously shown to be behind the BJP-led NDA in the surveys held till now and the question is only the margin of victory. This has not been to the liking of the Congress which charges that such surveys influence the minds of voters before the poll. The Attorney General is believed to have come out with the opinion that a ban on such pre-poll surveys would be considered a violation of fundamental rights and struck down by the Supreme Court. Besides, the BJP has no reason to push forward any urgent legislation as it is quite happy at the media projections.

But the latest projection is surprising. Unlike earlier opinion polls which predicted victory for the NDA Government, The Week-TNS poll, conducted by the Kerala-based magazine, foresees a hung Parliament. The poll gives the BJP and its allies only 230-265 seats, way behind the 272 required for a majority. The Congress and its allies could bag 170-200 seats. Others, including the SP, BSP, CPI(M), CPI and JD(S) will get 95-110 seats. The Congress gains in UP and Maharashtra, its alliance in Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar is also beneficial. The BJP gains a few seats in Punjab and Karnataka but loses in Haryana, while it retains hold in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.



NDA manifesto shows BJP’s imprint

The manifesto released by the NDA last week clearly indicates the dominance of BJP. Unlike in 1999 when various partners of the NDA suggested the agenda for governance, this time it is the BJP leadership which got the document prepared. It is believed that the NDA convener and Defence Minister, George Fernandes, was the only ally who saw the “draft” agenda and approved it. The others were shown the original document before the document was released.

The inclusion of contentious issues like Ram temple in the manifesto further proves this point. There was no hiding the fact that the much touted 23-member NDA has shrunk and with it, the clout of the partners vis-a-vis the BJP. The manifesto says that an early and amicable solution of the Ram temple issue would strengthen national integration. Defending the inclusion of the Ayodhya issue, Prime Minister Vajpayee has said the building of a Ram temple at Ayodhya was “a public and national issue” and the NDA would not make it a poll plank. NDA convenor George Fernandes said no one could object to the stand on Ayodhya as it only said an early and amicable resolution of the issue would strengthen national integration.

Besides the temple issue, the document has also made a commitment to bring in legislation for the “protection of the cow and her progeny.” In other words, the government would ban cow slaughter, although the NDA allies had opposed this attempt in the outgoing Lok Sabha.

Analysts feel the BJP’s dominance in the NDA is obvious and inevitable. The partners of the NDA are either powerful regional parties or national parties of little significance. For example, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) may be doing well in Andhra Pradesh but it has assumed power at the Centre only because of its attachment with the BJP-led NDA. The same is with Biju Janata Dal (BJD) of Orissa or the Trinamool Congress (TC) of West Bengal. So the dominance of the BJP in the NDA has no element of surprise. It is in the interest of other partners of the coalition that they should take it gracefully. But it is also a fact that the BJP has toned down a lot on the temple issue.

Moreover, it also proves that the coalition has reached its maturity level and there is consensus among the allies of the NDA.

Critics of the manifesto, however, feel that the BJP has succumbed to pressures by the RSS. The RSS feels the NDA allies have matured politically to accept the temple issue which has been “ignored, then ridiculed, and later opposed”. Now, political parties are rising above narrow electoral interest and have come together to address the issue. It’s a major step forward, RSS spokesperson Ram Madhav has commented. The NDA constituents said they will encourage dialogue for an early resolution of the Ayodhya issue, which will help in national integration. This will smoothen the efforts of negotiations after the elections, they felt. The RSS hoped that the BJP will similarly work towards evolving a consensus over abrogation of Article 370 pertaining to Jammu and Kashmir and legislating a Uniform Civil Code, as it has mentioned in its ‘Vision Document.’



The party agenda

The 36-page NDA manifesto, “An agenda for development, good governance and peace” has taken almost all the issues it could and some critics have dubbed it very similar to that of the Congress Party plus Ram (the Hindu God King in whose name he temple is to be built.) It also commits itself to “the ideal of secularism,” and to provide a “corruption-free governance.” The peace dialogue with Pakistan for a lasting solution to all outstanding issues, including Jammu and Kashmir, would continue.

Under a special mention on ‘civil society empowerment’, the NDA has promised to encourage “religious establishments active in the social field” to take up mass feeding of the poor and care of orphans and the destitute, and campaign against “social evils” such as female foeticide. The NDA has also promised legislation to make two-child norm a qualification for contesting elections.

In his opening remarks, Prime Minister Vajpayee expressed his happiness and satisfaction that the NDA had provided a stable and working alliance to the country. The manifesto was an expression of the maturity of the alliance, which had fulfilled its commitment to provide development and progress. “But more needs to be done for India to realise its full potential,” he has said, adding that “India is ready for a big leap forward.” The agenda has promised to introduce a Bill to provide for 33 per cent political reservation for women “in the very first session” of the new Lok Sabha.

The manifesto focuses on rural issues and employment also. The manifesto says that the answer to the problem of unemployment among the rural masses lies in a second green revolution and the NDA promises to have one. It also assures education and health for the rural masses and a social development fund of Rs. 100,000 crores and a special financial package for the minorities to cover education, economic upliftment and empowerment [taken straight out of the BJP’s “vision document”. It has repeated the 1999 promise of creating nearly 1 crore jobs a year while the Prime Minister insisted that the outgoing government had fulfilled its 1999 promise. The agenda has also talked about wide-ranging administrative and judicial reforms while it has promised to double spending on healthcare. Finally, in the infrastructure sector, it has promised an additional generation of 50,000 MW of energy in the next five years and, of course, pride of place has been given to the inter-linking of rivers project.

The NDA has promised to increase the foreign investment limit in the insurance business and to permit 26 per cent foreign investment in retail trade if voted back to power. The two initiatives form part of the exhaustive economic blueprint, outlining the NDA policies and programmes in practically all areas of economic management. Setting out the goal of eight to 10 per cent growth on a sustainable basis over the next five years with the eradication of poverty by 2015, the manifesto says the NDA is committed to making India an economic superpower through a seven-pronged strategy. The strategy envisages making India the food factory of the world; a global manufacturing hub; a service provider to the world; a centre of knowledge economy and a global destination for tourism, healthcare and higher education.

The manifesto provides detailed reform programmes that would be implemented in the agriculture, rural development, infrastructure, industry and economic spheres. A separate strategy has been outlined for employment generation, where the commitment to create one crore additional jobs and self-employment opportunities has been reaffirmed. It includes sustaining a high economic growth of 8-10 per cent, raising the employment-elasticity of the economy and enlarging the scope of Government schemes that create employment.

On continuing with the economic reforms initiative, the NDA manifesto says that the foreign direct investment limit in insurance would be revisited to further widen India’s insurance sector and strengthen its global linkages. The tax to gross domestic product ratio would be improved through further widening and deepening of the tax base while tariffs would be rationalised and simplified by removing all exemptions within two years.

One contentious issue addressed in the manifesto relates to foreign investment in retail trade. Stating that organised retail trade on the international pattern would be promoted, the manifesto proposes foreign investment up to 26 per cent in retailing. Also, internal trade barriers that hamper growth would be removed.

To capture the developments and opportunities in the global trade environment, the NDA proposes the creation of a separate Ministry for International Trade. Besides, special economic zones would be promoted as vehicles for overall growth while multi-commodity exchanges would be encouraged to secure for India leading positions in global trade in agricultural commodities, metals and a wide range of other commodities.

On disinvestment of public sector undertakings, the NDA says the process would continue, primarily to enhance and realise the hidden wealth of PSUs. Reaffirming its commitment to make India the centre of knowledge economy, the NDA promises full support to the information technology industry with adequate fiscal and policy support.

It also promises to set up an independent food regulatory authority within six months which would be responsible for setting and enforcing standards for all food products. A unified food law for faster development of food-processing industries would be enacted within six months, the manifesto said.

Meanwhile, reacting to the NDA manifesto, the Left parties have questioned the political conviction of BJP allies. CPI national secretary D Raja said: “The NDA is just a cover for the BJP. And, it is also understandable that the Shiv Sena or the Akali Dal would have supported the manifesto. But, we fail to understand why parties like the TDP or the Nationalist Trinamool Congress have not had their seeming political conviction reflected in the manifesto.” The manifesto is full of insincere, broken and false promises on all fronts from employment generation to other developmental activities... The BJP is desperate to return to power and it is fooling voters through such glossy manifestoes, according to Raja. In his usual style, CPIM General secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet said: “the manifesto is nothing but a statement of deception which the BJP and its allies have been living for the entire tenure at the Centre.”



Congress : Focus on winnability factor

In an apparent recognition of the futility of campaigning across the country in the face of visible pro-NDA trends, Congress president Sonia Gandhi has decided to concentrate on ‘winnable’ seats. With the first round of campaigning coming to a close, her political managers have taken stock of the situation and agreed to the change of tack. “As far as her campaign is concerned, there is no point in embarking on an uphill task knowing in certain states we cannot dent the rival stronghold,” a party leader has admitted.

Sonia Gandhi will, therefore, focus on those states where the Congress is in a position to pick up a considerable number of seats. Among such states are Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Orissa. The new strategy is based on inputs the party has received from various channels. Though the Congress president can still make appearances in other states to ensure that the party candidates and supporters there are not demoralised, she would intensify her campaign in those areas which have a fair chance of returning the aspirants of the Congress or its allies.

As the campaign progresses, she is likely to zero in on the constituencies the party sees as distinct possibilities. Sonia Gandhi apparently sees it as a challenge to at least hold on to the Congress tally in the 1999 elections. Her managers are of the view that deploying her in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Karnataka would not make much difference since trends in favour of the NDA have seemingly firmed up in those states.

As far as the battle for Uttar Pradesh is concerned, it will be primarily left to his daughter Priyanka to try to dent the clout of entrenched satraps like Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, former Chief Minister Mayawati and a host of BJP stalwarts.

Sonia Gandhi has tried to take the sting out of the BJP claims on the economic front issuing the party’s own economic agenda at the hands of the architect of India’s economic reforms policy-Dr Manmohan Singh last week.

Meanwhile, the absence of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader Sharad Pawar, from the poll campaign in Maharashtra has the Congress worried. Pawar has to undergo a jaw operation making him unfit for making speeches for long time. The NCP depends a lot on the charisma of Pawar to see it through and ensure the Congress-NCP alliance performs well in the Lok Sabha polls.



Impact of Rahul, Priyanka in UP

Meanwhile, the enthusiastic welcome accorded to the new generation of the Nehru-Gandhi family by the people of Amethi, Sultanpur and Rae Bareli in the last week has underlined the growth of one noteworthy factor in contemporary Uttar Pradesh politics - the revival of popular interest in the Congress. But the big question that stares the party’s leaders, activists and admirers in the face is whether the Congress has the political will and the organisational machinery to convert this renewal of public appeal into electoral gains. And, as of now, there are no definitive answers.

Political opponents, including leaders of the BJP such as State unit president, Vinay Katiyar, have tried to play down the public response in Amethi, Sultanpur and Rae Bareli as a “show of fleeting emotion”.

“After all, these three constituencies were considered to be the political pocket borough of the Nehru-Gandhi family since the days of Indira Gandhi”, Katiyar commented. Notwithstanding such a dismissal, the fact remains that the Congress is increasingly becoming a favourable political option for more and more people in several parts of Uttar Pradesh. One can sense this in places as diverse as the Muslim-dominated Aligarh or Varanasi, the bastion of Uttar Pradesh’s Brahmin priesthood.

Even in Faizabad, of which Ayodhya is a part, the Congress seems to be getting out of the political corner into which the forces of Hindutva (Hindu activism) had pushed it during the past one and a half decades. The local Congress candidate, Nirmal Khatri, formally launched his campaign with a massive procession and motorcade that took more than three hours to cross a point. That this impressive show was staged merely two days after Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani, addressed a sparsely attended BJP meeting has added weight to Khatri’s candidature.

There is also the view that the basic problem of the Congress is not organisational, but that of coming up with the right political slogans and positioning the party properly. Hariraj Singh Tyagi, former legislator and social analyst, for instance points out that two great politicians of north India, Socialist leader Ram Manohar Lohia and the former Prime Minister, Vishwanath Pratap Singh, took their anti-establishment campaigns to significant electoral victories without having anything close to a well groomed organisational machinery. “But unlike these two leaders, the Congress has been found wanting in coming up with emotive, people-oriented issues and propagating them at the right pitch.”

Tyagi, who has seen national and State politics from close quarters for over four decades, feels that with the emergence of Rahul and Priyanka, the Congress has overcome the deficiency of having leaders with charismatic appeal and the need now is to focus on and develop the socio-political issues. His tip is that the “Congress can resurrect itself in Uttar Pradesh and rest of north India only if it is ready to give up the practice of soft Hindutva (which it adopts from time to time) and tone down its advocacy of aggressive globalisation and liberalisation.”

Sanjay Singh, a long term associate of former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi, who has also returned to the Congress after flirting with several political parties including the BJP in the last 10 years, thinks that the organisational and political concerns thrown up by the current revival of popular interest cannot be comprehensively addressed in the context of one general election.