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Deepening political crisis in Pakistan |
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As if the problems already in hand were not enough for him, Pakistan President Zardari has stirred hornet’s nest by having his main political rival, Nawaz Sharif, and his brother, Shahbaz, disqualified from fighting elections and holding a public office and now putting him under house arrest. The action to disqualify Nawaz is seen as a political judgement coming from a plaint Supreme Court Chief Justice Dogar. After this judgement, Zardari dismissed the Shahbaz Sharif-led Punjab Government and imposed of Governor’s rule in the province. He gambled on the provincial PPP being able to form an alternative Government but that more backfired. His subsequent attempt to make peace with Sharif failed as his concessions were sans a commitment to reinstate Iftikhar Chaudhry as Supreme Court Chief Justice. The restoration of Iftikhar Chaudhry is seen as an unfinished business ever since former President Musharraf dismissed him along with some other judges and anointed his favourites to this critical pillar so crucial for the process of democracy.
What Zardari has forgotten is that he himself is not above board. Zardari was branded as Mr. Ten Per Cent for the commission he used to charge on Government contracts when he was a Minister in his late wife Benazir Bhutto’s Government and had to spend many years in jail. He himself owes his return to the country to the National Reconciliation Ordinance promulgated by the then President Musharraf in an act of reconciliation to restore democracy in the country and hold elections. One wonders what stopped Nawaz Zardari from issuing a similar ordinance to give reprieve to Sharif from conviction in a frivolous case slapped by Mr. Musharraf, accusing him of “hijacking” and terrorism. When the two leaders had signed the Murri accord and earlier the Charter for Democracy by Sharif and Bhutto in 2006 when both were in exile, the idea behind the documents was to work together to return the country to rule of law, democracy and stability. Instead, Mr. Zardari has chosen the path of confrontation and has put the national interests above his personal interests, thus unnecessarily provoking Sharif to take the extreme step of launching a political jihad against the President and exposing Zardari to a possible ouster by the Army Chief Gen. Kayani in a repeat of the 1999 events when the civilian Government of Nawaz Sharif was toppled by Gen. Musharraf. What Zardari must not forget is that a long march in 2007, the lead for which was given by the lawyers after Gen. Musharraf dismissed Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, overwhelmed the Musharraf Government forcing him to quit in spite of his being a powerful President since he held the dual posts of the President and the Army Chief. Zardari is not such a powerful personality and is already being put on notice by Gen Kayani.
The question is what is stopping Zardari from patching up with Nawaz Sharif who is unrelenting on at least one issue – the reinstatement of Iftikhar Chaudhry. His opposition to the restoration of Justice Chaudhry as Chief Justice is based on the concern that the activisit/populist judge may throw out the National Reconciliation Ordinance which will pave the way for reopening cases of corruption against Zardari and he may have to step down in such a case. No doubt he has made two major concessionss after the Army Chief, set a deadline for Zardari to patch up with Sharif before the long march reaches Islamabad on March 16 - agreed to file in the Supreme Court a review petition against the judgment disqualifying the Sharif brothers and ordering a review of the sacking of judges during emergency imposed by Musharraf – but the problem with him will be that it will mean a severe loss of political face which will weaken his hold on the PPP and the Government. Already, the stock of Prime Minister Gilani is rising. He is in the good books of the Army Chief Kayani.
He is sounding very conciliatory towards Sharif and has developed a good friendly equation with the PML[N] leader. He is consciously distancing himelf from his boss, making statements that are music to the ears of the Sharifs and the PML[N]. A Gilani rebellion will not just strengthen the Sharifs and the PML[N] but also have a domino--effect within the PPP in which large sections are already seething with discontent against the President. His dilemma however, is whether to strike the first blow against the leader or wait until he is struck by Zardari, who plainly does not trust him any more.
There may even be a churning in the political cauldron in Pakistan if Gilani falls out from Zardari, the latter claiming himself as the sole custodian of the PPP, the party which his father-in-law floated and Benazir Bhutto nursed. A sharp split in the PPP will result if Gilani walks out with a chunk of PPP lawmakers and party supporters, thus rendering Zardari to be a lameduck leader of a truncated party. The Gilani faction of the PPP joining hands with the PML[N] of Nawaz Sharif, which enjoys a higher popularity rating than the PPP in will mean hammering the last nail in the coffins of Zardari’s standing as the PPP leader. An impeachment of the President, the annulling of the National Reconciliation Ordinance if Iftikhar Chaudhry is reinstated and the reopening of cases against Zardari will once again turn the tables against him. With the Army breathing down his shoulders, Zardari has run out of any option other than making peace with former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
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