Deadlock over Nuke deal : Ready to face elections, Sonia Gandhi,Indian Politics, News Analysis, India News Online

With both the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the Left parties sticking to their respective stands on the India-US civilian nuclear deal, and the meetings of the UPA-Left political panel not making much progress on reducing the differ¬ences, it is increasingly becoming clear that a fresh Lok Sabha poll would be inevitable. The third meeting of the panel held on Friday, Oct. 5, reportedly saw differences coming to the fore on the question of holding negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on an India-specific safeguards agreement.

The Left stuck to its stand of no negotiations with the IAEA till the UPA-Left political committee submits its report and Parliament debates the deal. Left leaders later claimed that they got the impression that the Government may not go ahead with the IAEA talks. Forward Bloc leader Debabrata Biswas said, “We have the impression that the Government will not go ahead with operationalising the deal till the committee files its report.”

“Cannot delay negotiations any more” : Pranab Mukherjee

There are reports that External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee reportedly told the Left leaders that negotiations with the IAEA cannot be delayed any more. He is said to have said that the UPA was prepared to show the text of the safeguards agreement to the Left before it is signed, but it could not be delayed. Left leaders, however, rejected the proposal saying that it would be better to complete the deliberations by the political committee and reach a conclusion before the Government goes ahead with the talks.

Accordingly, the two sides decided to meet again on Oct. 9 and, if required, again on Oct. 14.

“We said clearly we cannot delay the IAEA talks any more,” said a Congress member of the UPA-Left committee after its third meeting.

“If it’s a choice between going ahead with operationalising the deal and becoming a lame duck government, and canceling the deal and becoming a dead duck government, we’d rather be a lame

duck than a dead duck.”

Congress sources denied the claim by some Left leaders that they were given a “categorical assurance” that no talks, formal or informal, would be held with the IAEA as long as the panel continued to meet.

“We cannot wait for ever,” the Congress member said.

The Left’s response at the meeting was an oblique “why can’t we finish our discussions before you start the formal talks?”

Congress sources said it was tempting to treat the “reason¬ably worded” question as a “legitimate request” but there was no guarantee the Left would not seize an opportune moment to with¬draw support or bash the Congress at public forums.

The Left reiterated its anxiety over the Hyde Act. “The gov¬ernment has failed to convince us that the Hyde Act is not built into the 123 Agreement,” a source said.

On October 9, the Left will raise its concerns on how the nuclear deal might affect India’s ties with Iran, Iraq, the Palestinians and Afghanistan.

The panel will also discuss the security issues of having Indo-US military exercises, buying arms from Israel and the “offer” of logistical support to the US.

The October 14 meeting is expected to signal who would make the first move whether the Left would withdraw support or the government recommend dissolution of Parliament.

“We are optimistic about the government’s position (on the deal) but not about the government,” the Congress panel member said.

At the meeting, a senior non-Congress UPA leader asked why, if the Left wanted elections, it was keeping everyone hanging on “threats and noises”.

The leader, known for outspokenness, said the post-poll scenario ought to be much the same as now and the Left should prepare itself to work again with the UPA. The Left’s response was it wanted to resolve the “pending” issues.

However, to placate the Left concerns, a Department of Atomic Energy statement on Oct. 5 said that it was not holding any formal negotiations with the IAEA for drafting the safeguards agreement and that it had not received any initial draft from the agency.

Stage set for early parting of ways

Even while the two sides agreed to hold two more rounds of discussions, they were reconciled to an early parting of ways because of the irreconcilable differences over the nuclear deal.

“The government is all set to go to IAEA this month. It seems they want to make up for lost time. We will wait till they go,” a senior Left leader said. He also said that the Left was fully aware of the quiet talks the government was holding with IAEA.

Left leaders have already made it clear that the government would have to face drastic consequences the moment it started the ‘paused’ negotiations with IAEA for India-specific safeguards - the first of the three hurdles the deal has to clear in order to be operationalised.

The latest meeting of the UPA-Left panel was marked by the forthrightness with which the government bared its resolve to press ahead with the deal despite all indications that the Left was not engaging in mere pyrotechnics when it warned of strong retaliation.

“We cannot allow the deal to be killed,” a UPA leader later said.

Concentrate on price rise, not nuclear deal : Left

Reports say, the Left also used the meeting to score brownie points against the government. Its leaders said the Centre should concentrate its energies on price rise and other aam aadmi issues rather than being “proactive” on the nuclear deal.

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Possible scenarios

Observers say, as things stand now, there are two possible scenarios:

One: The Left pulling the plug soon after the government takes the next step on the nuclear deal after noting the lack of con¬sensus in the ruling side on the nuclear agreement. Already, the Left has sounded out like-minded parties on the assault plan against the government. There is consensus in this political bloc that it should not hesitate to even sponsor a no-confidence motion against the government.

Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and other UNPA parties are on record saying that they will back the Left. The BJP, which has decided not to sponsor a no-confidence motion as it will give the Congress an opportunity to employ the familiar “secular” slogan, is certain to back the anti-government motion.

Two: The government and the Left agree on putting their respec¬tive positions in Parliament at the very start of the winter session. The government could then acknowledge the division in the ruling side on the issue and recommend dissolution of Parlia¬ment after taking a vote-on-account.

When the Congress leadership sits down to decide on its next step, it will be debating the two scenarios. Both scenarios mean parliamentary elections between March and April and the constitu¬tion of a new Lok Sabha by early May. While the first scenario could lead to a lot of acrimony between the Left and the Con¬gress, the second one could leave a window open for future en¬gagements. As both the Congress and the Left are wary of in¬creased influence of the BJP and parties like the BSP, they cannot afford to nurture mutual hatred.

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Congress ready for snap elections : Sonia Gandhi

In significant remarks at an Iftar party hosted by the Prime Minister on Saturday, Oct. 6, Congress president Sonia Gandhi made it clear that the party leadership is “preparing for the worst” while keeping its fingers crossed.

During a brief interaction with mediapersons, the UPA chair¬person, asked whether she was concerned about the prospect of mid-term elections, said: “Not at all. If there are elections you face it.”

She politely declined to respond further to a volley of questions pertaining to mid-term polls, the Karnataka crisis, developments in Congress-ruled states and others, saying, “This is the PM’s Iftar party. I will speak to you on some other occa¬sion.”

The Prime Minister comfortably answered some queries. When his attention was drawn to the fear that a general election has become inevitable, he said, “Nothing is inevitable.” Asked wheth¬er the Left parties would pull the rug, Dr Singh remarked, “I am not an astrologer.”

On discussions with the Left on the nuclear deal, the Prime Minister said, “As long as there is dialogue, there is always hope. We hope for the best.” To a question on whether coalition politics is working, he said, “We have to make it work.”

Dr Singh’s attention was drawn to the rise in prices of essential commodities, especially onions, and he responded by saying the government had no control over onion production.

In reply to another question about the proposed visit of IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei, Dr Singh said, “He is the head of an international agency. He is our honoured guest. We welcome him here.”

When reporters asked CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechury at the Iftar about the general election, he shot back: “I don’t know. Ask the government.” To a query on whether the talks on the nuclear issue were on the right track, and whether the Left was “convinced”, he said “very substantial notes have been exchanged”. Besides, he said, the issue has several nuances and they have to be properly evaluated.

To a question on how the Left would differentiate between formal and informal talks on the nuclear issue, Yechury said Atomic Energy Commission chairman Anil Kakodkar has himself said no official talks have taken place.

Vice-president Hamid Ansari, several Cabinet ministers, Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, top AICC functionaries and diplomats were present at the Iftar.

Left leaders discuss pros and cons of early elections

At an unscheduled meeting, top leaders of the CPI(M) and the CPI reportedly discussed the deadlock with the UPA over the Indo-US nuclear deal and the consequences of an early general elec¬tion.

CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat and his CPI counter¬part A.B. Bardhan had an hour-long meeting on Saturday, Oct. 6. They discussed threadbare the ongoing political tussle between the UPA and the Left over the deal. CPI’s Rajya Sabha MP, D Raja joined them later.

Sources said that they discussed the pros and cons of having an election now, especially how the Left parties would fare in Kerala, West Bengal and Tripura. They took stock of the deliber¬ations the Left has had with the government on the issue and the tone of the three meetings of the UPA-Left political committee, formed to resolve their differences on the deal.

Two more meetings of the committee are to be held on October 9 and 14. The Left leaders, it is learnt, are coming around to the view that the deadlock is reaching a “no return” situation for both sides.

The two leaders reportedly decided to take the “next step” if the government initiates formal talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on India-specific safeguards.

Sonia Gandhi’s New York remarks draw ire of some Left leaders, Karat says nothing wrong

Addressing a gathering of Indian Amricans in New York during her recent visit to the United States, Congress president Sonia Gandhi sought to play down the confrontation with the Left par¬ties on the nuclear deal, saying it is no cause for alarm. She said, “sometimes a great deal is made in the public domain of the opinions expressed by our friends who support our coalition, but this should not alarm you.”

In a clear attempt to play down the conflict with the Left, she said, “We believe it is important to listen to all points of view because we believe this only strengthens the democratic process and the process to arrive at a consensus.”

But the Left wasn’t mollified. M K Pandhe, member of the CPI(M) politburo, reiterated that there was going to be no change in his party’s stand. “The central committee is clear that it will act as soon as the government moves to operationalise the deal,” he said.

D Raja, CPI secretary, spoke in the same vein. “She has been candid enough to admit differences over the nuclear issue. But she has not indicated anything about how to resolve them,” Raja told an agency, implying that the future of the government hinges on its response to Red resistance to the deal.

But CPI(M) general secretary Prakash karat came to the Congress president’s rescue saying, there was “nothing wrong” in Sonia Gandhi’s take on the issue.

“She (Sonia Gandhi) has said nothing wrong. She said there are issues (relating to the deal) on which discussions are going on. We have to respect different views..,” Karat was quoted as telling reporters.

Karat admitted that “differences” existed between the UPA government and the Left parties, but said “we are trying to reach a consensus.”

On his party’s stand on the matter, the CPI(M) chief said, “the party had made it clear during its recent central committee meeting that the government should not take the next step (India-specific safeguards talks with the IAEA) on the deal. Any move should be made only after discussions in Parliament.”

Strategic partnership with US not against relations with other countries : Pranab Mukherjee

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who was also in the United States last week said that India values its strategic relationship with the United States. Addressing a gathering in Washington on Oct. 1, he said because of the emerging strategic relationship, India and the United States have an objective convergence in several areas. Mukherjee said, “our relationship has never been better than it is today. I am confident about its future.”

He said the bilateral civil nuclear cooperation agreement indicates the way forward, which should lead to the lifting of technology restrictions and the opening up of the cooperation in this field with several countries.

The External Affairs Minister said India’s strategic part¬nership with the United states has strengthened its relationship bilaterally in the region and in the world. He said, “closer relations between India and any one strategic partner will not be at the expense of relations with any third country.”

Mukherjee said India is also pursuing high level dialogue with major powers through the India-China-Russia trilateral forum, and the India-Brazil-South Africa group and also develop¬ing closer linkages with major powers like the United States, Japan, the European Union and Russia.

Go all out to stop nuclear deal : CPI(M) central committee tells politburo

The CPI(M) central committee at its meeting in Kolkata which ended on October 1, has authorised the party politburo to take “whatever measures necessary” to stop the UPA Government from proceeding with the 123 agreement with the United States. Although the central committee members discussed the pros and cons of a mid-term poll in the state, the party officially re¬mained silent on the withdrawal of support to the UPA if the deal is operationalised.

Despite some differences among the party’s central leaders and central committee members from West Bengal, Kerala and Tri¬pura who found a spokesman in patriarch Jyoti Basu on the timing of election if it becomes inevitable, the CC unanimously asked the UPA government not to proceed with the nuclear deal till it is discussed by the UPA-Left committee and Parliament.

Except for the Sethusamudram project, the CC in its report, came down heavily on the Congress-led government on issues like price rise, import of wheat, plight of farmers, Sachar report, public distribution system, security for workers in the unorga¬nised sector and raising of gas prices by Reliance.

“The UPA government should not proceed further on the next step with regard to the nuclear deal till it can be discussed in the winter session of Parliament,” a statement issued by the party after the meeting said.

The CPI(M), which does not want to take the blame for push¬ing the country into an early election, said the onus of prevent¬ing it was entirely on the government. The central committee gave unanimous backing to general secretary Prakash Karat’s tough line against the nuclear deal.

The CPI(M), which expects the Congress to pull the trigger and force the final showdown soon, has asked its state units to gear up for a March-April election.

The CPI(M) has attempted to put its house in order by revok¬ing the suspension of Kerala Chief Minister VS Achuthanandan and state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan from the politburo. “The suspen¬sion of the two leaders has been revoked. They have conducted themselves in accordance with the spirit of the earlier central committee decision and now, they were reinstated in the politburo with immediate effect,” Karat said.

No support if UPA continues to violate CMP : Left

In an editorial in its mouthpiece, People’s Democracy, the CPI(M) said no one should expect the party to support the UPA Government, which in violation of the Common Minimum Programme, is continuing the direction of foreign policy begun in the first place by the BJP-led NDA Government. The editorial said the Left would withdraw support to the Government if the UPA continues its violation of the CMP.

In a related development, the Left gave another note to the UPA on October 4 arguing that the country’s independent foreign policy would be compromised if the nuclear deal with the United States was operationalised.

CPI general secretary A.B. Bardhan has said that the UPA should not take for granted the support of the Left. He was addressing a function in Patna to mark the conclusion of the centenary celebrations of freedom fighter Bhagat Singh and CPI leader P.C. Joshi. Bardhan said so far the Left parties had not decided on withdrawing support as they did not want to foist a midterm election on the country.

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