Crisis over nuclear deal deepens : Left’s ultimatum, do not take the next step,Indian Politics, News Analysis, India News Online

There is no end to the fortnight long crisis in the UPA-Left relationship, which started on August 7, with the four Left parties rejecting the India-US civilian nuclear deal and their call to the Government not to operationalise it.

The crisis which began with the Prime Minister’s remarks in a newspaper interview that the nuclear deal could not be re-negotiated or abandoned as desired by the Left, deepened on Saturday, August 18, when the Left leaders during their meeting with the Prime Minister gave him an ultimatum warning him against any further step on the deal. Reports say the Left leaders made it clear to Manmohan Singh in no uncertain terms that if he took any further step to operationalise the deal, they would withdraw their support to the Government.

Government goes into huddle, consult allies

Trapped in a double-bind following the Left’s ultimatum, the Congress leadership began consultations with its UPA consti¬tuents on the issue that has put a big question mark over the government’s survival.

Aware that any Congress response to the CPI-M’s blunt de¬mand, that is, either put the nuclear pact on hold or risk the government’s fall, will have a direct bearing on its UPA partn¬ers, the Congress leadership, which has so far taken its consti¬tuents’ support for granted while tackling the Left, started reaching out to them.

In the event of a mid-term parliamentary elections, which none of the parties of the UPA amalgam apparently wants, the Congress as well as its constituents, will be required to work out their poll strategy.

Close on the heels of the Congress core group’s emergency 90-minute meeting on August 18 at the PM’s residence, convened to weigh the pros and cons of the situation and to discuss the government’s options in the face of the Left’s ultimatum, Con¬gress chief Sonia Gandhi rang up to the DMK president M Karun¬anidhi to apprise him of the crisis. DMK sources said the party will support the government on any decision it takes and that the concerns raised by the Left could be negotiated.

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee called on the RJD chief, Lalu Prasad, for a meeting at his residence to take stock of the grim situation. Human Resource Development Minister Arjun Singh and the RJD minister PC Gupta were also present.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi are also expected to hold talks with other leaders of UPA constituents to discuss the international fall-out of acting on the Left’s demand.

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Latest developments

Manmohan may offer to step down

* Congress sources said in New Delhi on Sunday (Aug.19) that if the government has to put the deal on hold under pressure from Left parties then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who is very sensitive about the nuclear deal, may offer to step down.

The sources said there is every likelihood that when the UPA meets in the evening (on August 19), Manmohan Singh may offer to step down rather than compromise on the deal.

Left gives more time to Government

* The Left parties appeared to be prepared to give the gov¬ernment time to work out a mechanism to address their concerns over the contentious Indo-US civil nuclear deal.

Senior Left leader Sitaram Yechury Sunday met Congress leader Pranab Mukherjee who, along with senior leaders, AK Antony and Ahmed Patel, are trying to hammer out a compromise formula. The Left is believed to have given the government a time frame of a few months within which it wants the government to resolve the issue.

Howeever, they are believed to have said that they will not budge from their opposition to the nuclear deal and are prepared to withdraw support unless the government works out a mechanism to address their concerns. Left sources said they are not keen to withdraw support right now and put the government in trouble.

Congress weighing possibility of calling mid-term elections

The Congress is buying time, discussing the possibility of calling for mid-term polls or mustering support for the govern¬ment in case the Left withdraws support by wooing the non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) parties.

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In case Left execute their threat........

If the Left parties, which account for 59 MPs in the 545-member Lok Sabha, withdraw their support, the government will be reduced to a minority with nearly 30 seats short of a simple majority.

Ruling out any backtracking from the nuclear pact, a Con¬gress Cabinet minister said there was no “harm” even if the government is reduced to a minority. “The government can only be toppled on the floor of Parliament when the Left joins hands with the BJP-led NDA in voting against the government in a non-con¬fidence motion, let the Left go ahead and do it.”

Officially, the Congress said the government has taken note of the Left’s concerns and will consider the matter. “Our guiding pole star will continue to be the national interest, no apprehen¬sions in this regard are justified,” AICC spokesman Abhishek Singhvi said.

The other option before the ruling UPA is to go to the people, i.e. Mid-term Poll, for which no side is prepared.

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Onus for Government’s survival on PM, Sonia Gandhi

After an hour-long meeting with the Prime Minister in New Delhi on August 18, Left parties have expressed their unwilling¬ness to go back on their stand on the Indo-US nuclear deal.

CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat said Government should not take next steps in negotiating safeguards agreement with the IAEA.

“Going ahead with the deal will have serious consequences for the country. Government should not proceed further till all doubts and apprehensions are evaluated,” added Karat.

He also said that the CPI(M) would be convening an emergency meeting of the Central Committee soon, where the issue would be discussed.

Left support dependent on what PM, Sonia decide

To a question on continuing support to the government, Karat said he has just talked to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi and it depends on what they decide.

CPI(M) leaders Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi amid an assertion by Left parties that the onus of resolving the stand off over the Indo-US nuclear deal lies with the government. Karat and Politburo member Sitaram Yechury were closeted with Singh and Gandhi for about an hour.

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who is working on reconciliation with the Left, was present during the delib¬erations.

Left leaders have made it known that the minimum they ex¬pected from the government was that the civil nuclear deal, which has been rejected by them, is not operationalised.

Karat and Yechury met Singh at the end of the party’s two-day Politburo meeting, which deliberated on its strategy in dealing with the standoff with the government over the conten¬tious deal.

In the midst of the Politburo meeting, CPI(M) leaders have already held consultations with other Left parties apparently to convey their united opposition to the deal.

The CPI(M) was of the view that the government has deviated from the Common Minimum Programme commitment of pursuing an independent foreign policy and is sharply critical of the Con¬gress-led coalition for entering into a strategic partnership with “imperialist” United States.

Other Left parties are more strident in their demand for reviewing support to the government with CPI General Secretary A B Bardhan saying that it has become “untenable” and the Left should extend “merit-based” support now. He feels that the UPA-Left Coordination Committee, the mechanism so far being used for consultations on key issues, has become “dead” and there is no point in carrying forward with it.

RSP leader Abani Roy said it is “high-time” that the Left review its support to the government, otherwise it will become a “laughing stock” among the people.

Forward Bloc General Secretary Debabrata Biswas met CPI(M) leaders on August 18 and conveyed to them his party’s stand on the deal and support to any move that puts operationalising of the 123 Agreement on hold.

“If is crystal clear that after the 123 Agreement was signed there has been a visible tilt in our foreign policy towards the US,” he said, referring to India’s participation in the joint naval exercises with American Navy and the vote on Iran.

“Honeymoon over, but marriage can go on” : Karat

CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat reportedly said on Friday, August 17, that the “honeymoon may be over but the marriage can go on.”

Senior leaders of the CPI and the CPI(M) were closeted in discussions and the Congress also took stock of the developments at a meeting of its “core group” at the residence of Prime Min¬ister Manmohan Singh.

Later, Dr. Singh hosted a dinner for West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee.

Even as the Politburo began a two-day meeting to evolve a strategy to take on the Government on the nuclear deal, the CPI’s national secretariat too held a session to review its ties with the UPA Government.

The tension in the Left-UPA relations was visible in the Lok Sabha on Friday, Aug. 17, during an impromptu discussion after Speaker Somnath Chatterjee rejected a debate under Rule 184 that entails voting.

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said India was not bound by the Hyde Act as it was only advisory in nature. Reacting to Leader of the Opposition L.K.Advani’s charge that the Government was “misleading” the House by saying that India was not bound by the Act, Mukherjee said he quoted only US President George Bush verbatim.

Mukherjee said these points were reflected in the joint statement of July 2005 and March 2006. “Let the House discuss it and it will be known who is right and who is wrong.”

Earlier, Advani said he was happier to see the UPA remaining in power and making more blunders that would further alienate it from its allies, as seen in the nuclear deal issue. He said that it was for the first time that a statement made by the Prime Minister was “misleading” and an international pact signed by him had involved him in a privilege motion.

Accepting the Speaker’s ruling for a discussion under Rule 193, Advani said Parliament should enact legislation that would provide for ratification by the House before any treaty was signed.

Divorce papers being readied : CPI

While the Manmohan Singh Government may be allowed to con¬tinue for the time being, the Left parties are finalising a strategy to shackle its functioning. The tone of the Left’s gradual disengagement with the UPA and virtually paralysing governance has been set with the CPI, the second largest Commun¬ist party, deciding to stay away from UPA coordination committee meetings. The party has also decided to reduce its support to the Government to just what is mentioned in the Common Minimum Programme.

CPI central secretariat announced its decision to what it called “redefine” relations with the Manmohan Singh Government on Friday, August 17. Both the CPI(M) and the CPI are also coordi¬nating their efforts to ensure that the Government can just do what the Left wishes, and no more. Symptomatic of a new strate¬gy, CPI general secretary A.B. Bardhan said strategy on “divorce papers” are being readied,

The Left looks determined to scan each and every move of the government and veto those which are not to its liking. As a Left leader said, “They (the government) should not even come to us with pension reforms or FDI proposals.” In short, measures that are now vulnerable to the Left’s veto are pension and banking reforms, raising FDI cap in insurance and allowing foreign insti¬tutions in higher education.

“The government from now on will live from one issue to another,” added another senior CPI(M) leader. This means the government’s canvas could get limited to social sector measures and populist issues. At the same time, the Left parties will seek to rub in the fact that Manmohan Singh heads a minority govern¬ment by not flinching from using their veto and by increasing their distance from the government.

The Left leaders are angry with Manmohan Singh for putting it out that he had told them that they could withdraw support to the government if they wished, but the government wouldn’t relent on the N-deal. As a Left leader said, “No one had spoken of with¬drawing support. The provocation didn’t come from us. So why did he have to say that?” He added that since the Left had travelled the first mile by making it clear that it wouldn’t pull down the government, the PM, on his part, should “make amends” and apolo¬gise in some form for his “intemperate outburst”.

The CPI central secretariat was unanimous on Friday in favouring a pullout from the UPA-Left co-ordination panel and a thorough review of the UPA’s report card.

There was no let-up in the Left’s demand not to opertiona¬lise the nuclear deal with the US, with CPI declaring that it stood by the Left Front’s rejection of the pact.

In the CPI(M), even Jyoti Basu and Sitaram Yechury, the so-called moderates whom the government expects to bring around hardline comrades, stressed their opposition to the deal.

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Chinese media happy, Indo-US deal facing hurdles

Chinese newspapers have come out with articles on the diffi¬culties the Indo-US nuclear deal is facing both within India and in the United States.

Judging by the two articles published on Friday, August 17, in the People’s Daily and its sister publication, Global Times, Beijing seems to want Washington to reconsider its nuclear deal with New Delhi.

The Chinese-language Global Times, seen by diplomats and foreign policy experts as Beijing’s window to the world, said the Indian government has to choose between its own survival and that of the deal. It devoted the entire front page to the deal with a large article headlined: “US warns India not to carry out nuclear tests anymore; India on the boil, Prime Minister faces step down”.

It said the deal has caused political turmoil in India leading to a situation where Singh might be forced to step down.

Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily said the US has disregarded international opinion to use India as a “tool for its global strategic pattern” by supporting New Delhi’s nuclear ambitions. Global Times said the US has been driven to seek an ally in India because of China’s rapid development. It said Indians, who were earlier excited about the deal, now feel they have been fooled by the US into signing an unclear and unreliable pact.

It’s the first time the state media has attempted to eval¬uate the political situation in India to judge the sustainability of the N-deal and the longevity of the UPA government.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry and the official media had earlier voiced their objection to the deal on the ground that India was not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Trea¬ty. But now, the tone of criticism is strident.

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Congress trying to mend fences

A week after the publication of the Prime Minister’s inter¬view, which virtually dared the Left to withdraw support, the Congress appears to have toned down its challenge to the Left. Reports say that Government managers are now saying that the Left has a right to have its own opinion and differ with the Govern¬ment. Parliamentary Affairs Minister Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi has said that all differences with the Left can be resolved and there is no threat to the Government.

Congress president Sonia Gandhi, in her address to the Congress Parliamentary Party on Tuesday, August 14, came out in support of the 123 agreement and the Prime Minister, but made no reference to the controversy with the Left. The Left, on its part, continued to voice opposition to the deal in various fora. On Monday, August 13, it walked out of the Lok Sabha after the Prime Minister finished reading the text of his statement on the deal. In the Rajya Sabha, it walked out along with the UNPA, followed by the BJP, even as Dr. Manmohan Singh was reading out his speech. On Tuesday, the CPI(M) politburo issued a statement, after party general secretary Prakash Karat and his CPI counter¬part A.B. Bardhan had met the Prime Minister that Dr. Manmohan Singh’s speech in Parliament had not addressed their concerns over the deal. CPI(M) politburo member Sitaram Yechury met External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee several times during the week to discuss how to reduce differences between the two parties on the issue.

Observers say that while both the Congress and the Left parties know that they do not have any option, but to stick together to keep the BJP-led saffron forces out of power, their sailing together would be rocky at least in the near future.

An indication that while the Congress is trying to keep the relationship with the Left on an even keel, to the extent possi¬ble, the party is not ruling out the possibility of early Lok Sabha elections, is coming in from various developments. A combine meeting of the Andhra Pradesh Congress committee and Congress Legislature Party in Hyderabad on Saturday, August 18, provided an opportunity to assess the party’s preparedness to face the eventuality of early elections to the Lok Sabha. Pra¬desh Congress president Keshava Rao told a newspaper, “We are gearing up for the 2009 general elections, no doubt. However, we must be prepared if the Lok Sabha elections are advanced.”

Government campaign to fight “misinformation” about Nuke deal

Concerned over alleged “misinformation” campaign launched by the Opposition and the Left against the India-US civilian nuclear deal, the Union Cabinet on August 16 decided to counter it through an informed debate in Parliament to ensure correct pro¬jection of the 123 agreement. Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav said the opposition parties were creating confusion about the deal. Many other Ministers including Shivraj Patil, Ramvilas Paswan and P.R. Dasmunshi shared the opinion that this confusion prevailed right from the Central Hall of Parliament to the people at large, thanks to the opposition’s misinformation campaign.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh intervened to underline the Government’s commitment to a debate on the deal.

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Lok Sabha to discuss nuclear deal on August 23

No voting, rules Speaker

Parliament is likely to discuss the India-US civilian nu¬clear deal from August 23, subject to an agreement by party leaders and Speaker Somnath Chatterjee, in case of the Lok Sabha. Parliamentary Affairs Minister said this in New Delhi on Friday, August 17. The Lok Sabha was scheduled to discuss the deal last week, but the matter was put off by a week to allow Members to discuss in detail the havoc caused by floods in various parts of the country.

The BJP which was earlier pressing for a discussion on the deal in the Lok Sabha under a rule which entails voting and has now accepted the Speaker’s ruling that the debate be held under Rule 193 as a short duration discussion with no voting, had requested that the discussion be taken up on August 23. This may suit the Government as on the previous two days, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee are expected to be busy with the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

In a major relief for the Government, on Friday, August 17, Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee rejected the Opposition demand for renegotiating the nuclear deal after debating it under rule 184 that provides for voting. He said Parliament has no competence to decide on operationalisation of any international agreement or treaty. Chatterjee quoted the Constitution and said that in the absence of appropriate laws made by Parliament, the right of the Central Government to enter into treaties and agreements with foreign countries in its sovereign power, is unrestricted and becomes effective without any intervention by Parliament.

“It is also well-established that there is no requirement to obtain ratification from Parliament of any treaty or agreement for its operation or enforcement. Thus, Parliament can only discuss any treaty or agreement entered into by the Government, without affecting its finality or enforceability.”

The discussion will now be held under Rule 193 that has no provision for voting.

Pointing out that there was no precedence of the House having discussed any international treaty or agreement under Rule 184, the Speaker said the motions, as tabled by the Leader of the Opposition L.K. Advani (BJP), Santosh Gangwar (BJP) and Ram Gopal Yadav (SP), require the Government to re-negotiate the deal and by asking the Government to do so, “it seeks to disapprove the Agreement entered into and to require the Government not to give effect to the Agreement in its present form and contents, which the House has no competence to do and it will clearly amount to the House rejecting the Agreement in its present form. What cannot be done directly cannot be achieved indirectly.”

The notices under Rule 193 have been tabled by Gurudas Dasgupta (CPI), Rupchand Pal (CPI-M), Ramjilal Suman (SP), and three other members.

In his observation, the Speaker said the Prime Minister had made a statement on the deal on August 13 but the House had a right to discuss it.

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The nuclear deal dominated Parliamentary proceedings last week even though there was no structured discussion on the issue. On Monday, August 13, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made state¬ments in both Houses of Parliament on the deal in the midst of Opposition protests and walkouts.

Defending the nuclear deal, Dr. Manmohan Singh said that it is historic and good for the country and for the world. Assert¬ing that the agreement did not in any way affect the country’s right to conduct a nuclear test in future, he rejected the contention of the Left and the Opposition parties that it cur¬tailed the country’s strategic autonomy and impinged on its independent foreign policy.

Alluding to concerns raised by the Left, NDA and UNPA over various aspects of the 123 agreement, the Prime Minister said India could take corrective measures if the US terminates the agreement and cessation of cooperation will take place after elaborate multi-layer consultations. Allaying apprehensions that the nuclear deal will be scrutinized every year by the US Presi¬dent and Congress, he said, “there is no provision that states that US cooperation with India will be subject to an annual certification process.”

Significantly, Left members did not join the slogan shouting against the deal, but staged walkouts in both Houses. In the Rajya Sabha, Dr. Manmohan Singh made the same statement, but did not complete it pointing out that protesting members were not interested.

Storm over US remarks

Parliament’s functioning was affected on August 17 with the Opposition alleging that the Prime Minister has misled the House on the nuclear deal. The trouble arose over the US State Depart¬ment statement on terminating the Indo-US nuclear agreement if India conducts a test. The BJP gave notices for moving Breach of Privilege Motions against the Prime Minister for misleading Parliament on the nuclear deal while citing details of the 123 Agreement and the Hyde Act. The BJP move came despite External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s clarification that the deal did not constrain future governments from carrying out a nuclear test if they wanted to. He said in the Lok Sabha, “There is nothing in the bilateral agreement that the Government has en¬tered into with the US to tie the hands of a future government to undertake a nuclear test.” The Left walked out as Mukherjee was making a statement while the slogan shouting BJP and Third Front MPs stormed the Well of the House in protest.

Later in the week, US State Department spokesman Sean McCormick clarified his earlier remarks saying on August 16, “India is a sovereign country and I think you are all familiar with the provisions in the 123 agreement, and certainly that provides the President of options in acting in the event that there is a test. The whole issue is India is sovereign, but we are not encouraging any states to test at this point.” He did not assert, as he did a couple of days earlier that a test by New Delhi would lead to scrapping of the deal.

In another development, senior BJP leader L.K. Advani called up CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat on August 13 and sought cooperation in blocking the India-US nuclear deal. He also approached leaders of other political parties to secure support for the NDA stand calling for a vote on the nuclear deal in Parliament. The CPI(M), however, did not agree to Advani’s call for a common strategy on the nuclear deal.

Ruckus in Parliament on George Fernandes remarks

NDA convener George Fernandes’ remarks that the Prime Min¬ister had “betrayed the nation” by “continuous bluffing” on the nuclear deal rocked both Houses of Parliament on August 17 with ruling UPA members demanding all round condemnation of Fernandes comments and even his arrest. Fernandes in his remarks, while talking to mediapersons on August 16 had said, “if it were the United States, their House would have thrown out and disgraced the President if he had acted as Manmohan Singh. If it were China, they would have settled it with one bullet in his head.”

The Lok Sabha adjourned twice on Friday on this issue as did the Rajya Sabha. Parliamentary Affairs Minister P.R. Dasmunsi said the remarks like the ones made by Fernandes were provocative and could incite extremists. Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatter¬jee said since the remarks had been made outside the House, he had no jurisdiction over it. He could not compel any Member to apologise.

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BJP conducted havans for my death : PM

Another controversy arose last week with the Prime Minis¬ter’s reported remarks in an interview with India Today magazine that some Opposition leaders had wished death for him because of his resolve to sign the nuclear deal. He said, “They didn’t even believe I would last as Prime Minister and some leaders even did havans that I should die on a certain day.

“But I have faith in a higher force. I believe it was my destiny to be the Prime Minister. I have the courage of convic¬tion.”

Dr. Singh said the “attitude of the BJP is disappointing.”

Reacting to the remarks, the BJP sought an apology from him.

“We still cannot believe that a Prime Minister can ever make such comments in this century. It’s appalling. He should better understand that ‘havans’ are held for well-being and not to pray for somebody’s death,” senior BJP leader Vijay Kumar Malhotra told reporters.

“He owes an apology to the nation for such ridiculous com¬ments. Can he name anybody who had organised those `havans’?” Malhotra said.

The Congress said Dr. Singh was not given to exaggeration and hyperbole. Party spokesman Abhishek Singhvi said the BJP had “utter disrespect” for Constitutional authorities, be it the Chief Election Commissioner or the judiciary or the Prime Min¬ister.

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BJP, Left stay away from President’s at-home

In another pointer in the wind, BJP top leaders and the Left, barring an odd presence, stayed away from President Pratib¬ha Patil’s first at-home, on Independence Day. Observers say that given the BJP’s strident opposition to Pratibha Patil’s candidature for the Presidency, their leaders staying away was perhaps not surprising. While leader of the Opposition L.K. Advani attended the Republic Day function at the Red Fort in the morning, he was not seen at Rashtrapati Bhavan. For the Left, only CPI’s D. Raja, put in an appearance.

Situation changing fast : Mulayam Singh

Samajwadi Party president Mulayam Singh Yadav has said that the political situation in the country was changing fast and a new scenario may emerge before the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Speaking in Lucknow on August 12, he described the nuclear agree¬ment with the United States as “dangerous” and accused Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of misleading the country on the actual contents of the accord. He said the UNPA of which the Samajwadi Party is a constituent, will launch a countrywide struggle on the farmers issue.

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