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Cracks in Pak coalition over judges’ restoration – Sharif pulls out his PML(N) |
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The ruling coalition between the PPP and its junior partner, PML[Nawaz], is on the verge of a collapse over the issue of reinstating of judges deposed by President Musharraf. Nawaz Sharif has pulled his party out of the coalition after two days of hectic talks in London between PPP Co-chairman, Asif Ali Zardari, and the PML[N] chief failed to patch up their differences over the mode of reinstatement of the judges. On his return to Lahore on May 13, Sharif announced at a Press conference that he was withdrawing all the nine ministers from the PPP-led Government of Prime Minister Gillani. He, however, left the doors open for the PML(N) to rejoin and said that his party would continue to extend issue-based support to the minority PPP Government. Zardari, however, asked Gillani not to accept their resignations and behind-the-scene efforts are said to be underway to find a common ground on their differing perceptions over the reinstatement of judges.
The May 12 deadline for restoring the judges by adopting a resolution in the National Assembly passed off without the PML(N) wish being fulfilled.
The two leaders met in London on May 10-11 after they failed to reach a consensus in Dubai on the thorny issue of whether the judges who had been deposed by Musharraf should be reinstalled or not. All through May 11, Rahman Malik, Adviser to the Prime Minister on internal security, Hussain Haqqani, Ambassador-designate to the US, Shahbaz Sharif, Nawaz Sharif’s brother, and Khwaja Asif Petroleum Minister kept up discussions in a last desperate attempt to save the coalition. Sharif had made it clear that if by May 12, the PPP did not honour the promise it had made in the Murree Declaration to reinstate the judges, the PML[N] would walk out of the coalition government.
Their differences mainly relate to whether to retain the November 3, 2007 Provisional Constitution Order [PCO] about judges on an ad hoc basis or accept them as permanent members of the Bench. Zardari has also demanded that the proposed constitutional package should be delinked from the issue of restoration of judges which should be done by adopting a resolution by the National Assembly. Sharif has accepted the PPP condition that the judges presently running the Supreme Court who have taken oath under the PCO could be retained. But, he is loath to give the PCO judges a permanent status. Also central to the dispute is the restoration of the “sacked” Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. It is well known that Musharraf who ordered Chaudhry’s removal, is totally opposed to his returning to the Bench. One suggestion making the rounds is to create two Supreme Courts after earmarking their jurisdiction, one headed by Iftikhar Chaudhry and the other by the incumbent Chief Justice Dagar appointed by President Musharraf after removing Chaudhry. The idea was mooted by the PPP to please the PMLN] chief.
Nawaz Sharif announced the decision of his party to withdraw from the coalition after a meeting of the Central Committee in Lahore. He announced that the Central Committee and Parliamentary party of the PML[N] had decided to quit the coalition but would extend support to the Gillani Government on an issue-by-issue basis and do nothing to destabilize the democratic process.
The next day, all the nine Ministers belonging to Sharif’s party submitted their resignations to Prime Minister Gillani on May 13, shaking the fragile coalition government that took power just six weeks ago. Gillani did not immediately accept the resignations.
The ruling coalition is on the breaking point on another issue also – the appointment of a controversial person as Governor of Punjab Province which is ruled by the PML[N]. On the advice of the PPP-led Gillani Government, President Musharraf appointed industrialist and media baron Salman Taseer as the new Governor of the province. Nawaz Sharif alleged that he was not consulted on the move and described Taseer as a controversial figure. The party said his appointment was part of a conspiracy hatched by Musharraf to initiate horse-trading in the province. Taseer in the early 1990s was the spokesman of the PPP.
Fundamental PPP-PML(N) differences
Underlying the differences on the issue of restoration of judges between the PPP and the PML[N] was a fundamental disagreement over how to deal with the unpopular dictator. The PML[N] viewed the reinstatement of judges as part of its wider strategy to oust Musharraf from the Presidency. On the other hand, PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari has been reluctant to head into a confrontation with Musharraf. The reasons for this can only be speculated upon, but what is evident is that the PPP wanted to make the reinstatement a part of a larger constitutional package that would have clipped the wings of the restored judiciary. The PML[N] took the position that restoring the judges through constitutional amendments would bestow an unacceptable legality on Gen Musharraf’s actions during the emergency. For Sharif, who made the restoration of the judges the main plank of his party’s election campaign and set himself a deadline to achieve this, there was little scope for compromise.
Considering that the judiciary issue has been at the heart of Pakistan’s political turmoil since March 2007, Sharif has improved his political standing by emerging as a man of his word. Zardari’s lack of enthusiasm for keeping a promise the two leaders jointly made to the nation through the March 8 Murree Declaration puts his party at a political disadvantage. Nor have the PPP’s moves to cushion a possible breakup of the coalition by reaching out to sections of the PML[Q], the King’s Party, enhanced its image. It is encouraging that both Sharif and Zardari have kept a window open for a reconciliation of their differences.
The PML[N] has not withdrawn from the coalition and the PPP has signalled its keenness to persuade Sharif’s party back into the government. In the long-term interests of democracy in Pakistan, political observers say, it is imperative that both parties set aside their narrow political interests and speedily craft a formula to untangle the judges issue. The drama featuring a dictator versus a hyperactive ex-Chief Justice championed by the Bar might appear overblown to the external world but what is clear is that Pakistan cannot move ahead unless there is a compromise.
Options before Nawaz Sharif
The question for Nawaz Sharif now is: “where to go from here” Simply put, Sharif has two choices. He can either take the logic of what he has done further which will be a political risk or allow the PPP to woo him back which the latter said it will do. The strategy Sharif is pursuing is to keep open the option of returning to the fold rather than taking the present course to the stripping point. Sharif has been circumspect until now in dealing with the issue. There is no name-calling and no accusations at Press conferences. The PPP has been equally mature. Prime Minister Gillani has refused to accept the resignations of the PML[N] Ministers. Zardari has asked the Prime Minister to keep the portfolios open for the PML[N] Ministers to return. The only Ministry to get a new head is that to be of Finance, that too because the budget is to be presented. Chances are that Gillani might ask Ishaq Dar, the PML[N] Finance Minister, to continue even as other Ministers do not. If that happens and if Sharif allows Dar to continue working, it would be the strongest signal that the rough the coalition has hit will not flatten it. Even if it does not happen, as a rational political player, Sharif should be able to calculate the risks involved in opting out of the coalition. It would not do to simply stay out of the Government and lend its issue-based support. That option he wanted to exercise earlier but could not because Zardari told him clearly enough that they will sink and swim together.
The other possibility of quitting the Treasury Benches altogether means some kind of linkage with the rejectionists – the All-Parties Democratic Movement, and the more stringent factions of the lawyers. That would mean supporting their agitational politics. That would also mean forcing the PPP hand into making a bid for Punjab, Sharif’s stronghold. In case that happens, Punjab would actually become Sharif’s Achilles’ heel. While Sharif is prepared to get out of the Federal Cabinet on moral grounds, losing Punjab, is a different ballgame altogether.
Moreover, while Sharif’s politics, up to now, has brought into convergence the morality of the issue and political expediency, as a national political player he has to maximize his political advantage and therefore at some point the scales must begin to tip in favour of what is doable rather than what is desirable.
The MQM is already straining at the leash to gain the federal cabinet. The PML[Q], which is enjoying the spectacle from the sidelines after having been clobbered, is unlikely to remain on the fence if and when the PPP needs it to save the Presidency. Sharif knows this. He also knows that he has been forced to do what he has done because of his rhetoric on the issue of restoring the judges. He may well have hit the bottom and that only means bouncing back.
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