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Congress wakes up, says ‘No’ to pre-poll national alliance |
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The Congress Working Committee decision not to have a pre-poll national level alliance for the coming Lok Sabha elections shows that the party is at long last waking up to the poaching on its turf by a host of regional parties, some of them now constituents of the United Progressive Alliance, UPA, which it heads and which is ruling at the Centre.
The Congress is engaged in almost a direct fight with dominant regional outfits, either aligned with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, NDA, or with the nascent third front or third alternative. The regional parties aligned with the NDA include the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab, the Indian National Lok Dal in Haryana, the Janata Dal(United) in Bihar, the Asom Gana Parishad in Assam, the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa. Regional parties now veering towards the third front include the All India Anna DMK in Tamil Nadu and the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh, which have in the past been aligned with the BJP, and in the case of Jayalalithaa’s All India Anna DMK , with the Congress also, at times.
Paradoxically, while allying with regional outfits has helped the BJP to expand its base, in the case of the Congress , it has been just the reverse. The best example of that is the Congress alliance with Mayawati’s BSP in Uttar Pradesh in the nineties, which Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi blames for the marginalisation of the party in the country’s most populous state. A similar picture has emerged in Bihar, where alignment with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, RJD , has led to the Congress being destined to play the role of a peripheral player in the foreseeable future.
The Congress is now face to face with the ambitions of three major allies- Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party , NCP and the RJD. The Samajwadi Party, which is one of the two major parties in Uttar Pradesh, the other being Mayawati’s BSP, has been gradually trying to extend its footprint to other states, mostly at the expense of the Congress. The NCP, which was recognised as a national party following its split from the Congress on the foreign origin issue, has its base primarily in two states - Maharashtra and Meghalaya. But it has been assiduously working to strengthen its presence in other states. The RJD has also expanded its base , getting recognition from the Election Commission as a national party after making its presence felt in the North-east in Assembly elections.
A sign of the times is that apart from the Congress, many of the other UPA constituents have prime ministerial hopefuls. Sharad Pawar is being projected by his party - the NCP- of being of prime ministerial calibre. Now Lok Janshakti Party chief Ram Vilas Paswan has also thrown his hat in the ring. Mulayam Singh Yadav, the leader of the largest UPA supporting party after the Congress cannot be ignored in the prime ministerial race either.
These parties, UPA constituents and supporting parties will be able to realise their dreams only if they return to the next Lok Sabha with greater numbers. That is why there is a race for getting a better deal in seat-sharing talks with the Congress, which is perhaps the only truly national party in the country. Even the BJP, the principal opposition party, has its presence in some states, only courtesy the dominant regional party.
Significantly all these three parties- the Samajwadi Party, the NCP and the RJD - have been in favour of a national level alliance of UPA constituents to fight the Lok Sabha elections. It will help them to have a greater presence in the new house to be formed after the elections. But as the vote bank of these parties coincides with that of the Congress , their gains would obviously be at the cost of the Congress.
With the Congress saying ‘No’ to a pre-poll alliance, the stage is being set for hard bargaining in the seat-sharing talks and perhaps re-alignment of political forces. Sharad Pawar’s NCP has already admitted that it is in talks with the CPI(M) on the formation of a pre-poll front of secular parties. The possibility of the Samajwadi Party moving from being an outside supporter of the UPA to becoming the leader of the nascent third alternative cannot be ruled out. The only factor, which may hold it back is the fear that Mayawati will be the main gainer from the move in Uttar Pradesh.
India is set for a tumultuous phase in both the pre and post-poll periods. The Congress will have to be careful not to burn all its boats as no party or even alliance may be in a position to form the next government on its own. The Indian voter is inscrutable and may deliver a surprise but the start of a period of unprincipled alliances to gain power cannot be ruled out.
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