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Congress : Surging ahead

	August 14, 2006

There are good tidings for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance Government at the Centre. A nation-wide survey conducted by two media organizations has found that despite the problems resulting from the Volcker disclosures, rising prices and farmers’ suicides, the Alliance may win a comfortable majority on its own if elections are held now. The ruling coalition’s tally could cross 300 seats in the Lok Sabha, substantially more than the 222, the Congress and its allies won in the 2004 elections. This would be primarily at the expense of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) whose tally may drop from 189 seats in the last elections to only 120, the State of the Nation Survey, conducted by Hindu-CNN-IBN, found.



The survey conducted between August 1 and 6 was based on interviews with about 15,000 respondents spread over 883 villages and urban areas in 19 states, including the national capital, Delhi.



Significantly, the survey found that the UPA gains are based primarily on the advances made by the Congress. The party, the survey projects, may get 240 seats on its own, more than what it secured in any Lok Sabha election since 1991. This is still some distance from the simple majority mark of 272, but substantially more than the number of seats the party has in the present Lok Sabha.



The main opposition party, the BJP, which is the leading light of the NDA, may register its worst performance in 17 years if elections are held now. It is projected to get 82 seats, four short of its tally in the 1989 Lok Sabha elections. The Left parties which are supporting the UPA Government from outside are likely to retain their current tally of about 60 seats in the Lok Sabha.



In terms of share of the popular vote, the survey finds that the UPA may get about 44.4 per cent, 8 per cent more than the tally in the 2004 elections. The NDA is projected to lose more than 5 per cent of its popular vote. The Left parties may also lose a little more than 1 per cent of the popular vote, in case of a fresh poll, but their Lok Sabha seat tally is expected to remain unchanged because of their concentration in some states and pockets.



Observers attribute the upsurge in popular support for the UPA in general, and the Congress in particular, to increase in the popularity ratings of Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the rudderless functioning of the main opposition, BJP, with no one in a position to occupy the space vacated by former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the start of a nation-wide shift from regional parties to national parties. The Congress appears to be the main beneficiary of this trend, while the BJP does not appear to be taking advantage of this shift, perhaps because of the virtual leadership crisis in the party.





Anti-incumbency factor works in Congress favour



Observers say that the anti-incumbency factor may also be working in the Congress favour as it is not in power in many states. Generally, it has been seen that the anti-incumbency factor works on the basis of the party or parties ruling at the state level.



In Assam, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, the Governments have not completed the first half of their five-year term. As a result, anti-incumbency is less of a factor. On the other hand, the NDA is at the receiving end in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, which went to the polls in 2003.



Factional fights in Jharkhand and an incongruous alliance in Karnataka have swung things further against the NDA. It is only in Bihar, Orissa and, to an extent, in Gujarat that the NDA has escaped voter fury.



The survey suggests that a long-term political trend may be at work. Since the 1989 Lok Sabha elections, which signaled the end of the Congress dominance, the space vacated by the party had been occupied by regional formations. The 2004 Lok Sabha election results indicated that this trend had been halted. The findings of The Hindu -CNN-IBN survey show that the Congress is beginning to regain some of the social ground it lost in the 1990s.





Perceptions at the state level



Perceptions of the incumbent State Government are crucial in shaping voting patterns in Lok Sabha elections. In many States, incumbent governments are still new and popular. Usually, incumbents gain in popularity in the first one or two years after the election.



This is the case with the following governments: the DPA in Tamil Nadu, the Congress in Assam, the UPA in Maharashtra, the Left Front in West Bengal, the NDA in Bihar and, to a lesser degree, the Congress in Andhra Pradesh and Haryana and the LDF in Kerala.



In all these States, the ruling parties or alliances would have done very well had a Lok Sabha election been held in the first week of August.



Anti-incumbency seems to have set in some of the BJP-ruled states, which the party swept at the time of the last Lok Sabha elections. The Governments of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh seem to be facing the heat. Ashok Gehlot and Ajit Jogi of the Congress and Uma Bharti are more popular in these States than the incumbent Chief Ministers.



In Karnataka, the ruling party’s popularity has taken nose dive and also damaged its partner, the BJP. The Congress’ stock has gone up considerably. In Gujarat too, the Congress has made gains, though the BJP continues to be in position to stage a stiff contest.



In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party is at the receiving end of voter anger; the BSP is ahead in the electoral race that will be staged next year. However, if a Lok Sabha election were to be held next year, the Congress could surprise itself with an impressive showing.



In Orissa, Naveen Patnaik continues to buck the anti-incumbency trend and the Congress is simply no match for the BJP-BJD combine. The Congress is well placed in Punjab.



There are some signs that the national context appears more important now than it was in the 1990s. The survey indicates that the Congress may have made major gains at the expense of regional parties (sometimes its own allies) in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.





Mid-term evaluation



The survey provides mixed results about the performance of the UPA Government. The overall perception of the Government’s performance is more positive than newspaper headlines might suggest. Three times more people are satisfied than dissatisfied with the Government’s record of work. Asked to compare the UPA Government with its NDA predecessor, the majority preferred the present Government.



There is a negative perception of some key issues. People think that corruption has increased, national security has deteriorated, the condition of farmers has worsened, and prices have gone up.



On the leadership issue, the results are much less ambiguous. Sonia Gandhi is far ahead as the popular choice as Prime Minister. She is 10 percentage points ahead of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who dominated the popularity chart for nearly a decade. While Vajpayee’s announcement of retirement has led to a sharp erosion in his ratings, none of the BJP’s national leaders has managed to fill the vacuum.



The return of the ‘national’ voter is linked to a changing social profile of the Congress party. An analysis of the social profile of the potential Congress voters shows that the party has made big gains among the OBCs and Muslims, while partly recovering its base among Dalits. This is the base the regional parties had taken away from the Congress. If this trend persists, it may be the beginning of a new era that could transform the face of the Congress as well as that of Indian politics.