|
Congress, BJP fight for retaining, expanding political space |
 |
With the Lok Sabha elections approaching, both the principal parties, the Congress and the BJP, appear to be engaged in a bitter fight with their allies to retain, and if possible, to expand their political space. This is manifest in the slug-fest for favourable deals on seat-sharing with their allies in the United Progressive Alliance, UPA, and the National Democratic Alliance, NDA, respectively, which they head.
In two of the most crucial states in the north-Uttar Pradesh and Bihar-the Congress has still not been able to firm up seat allocation with its main allies, the Samajwadi Party in UP and Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal, RJD, and Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party, LJP, in Bihar. One influential section of the Congress headed by party president Sonia Gandhi's son Rahul Gandhi is not in favour of allowing the allies to dictate terms in the seat-sharing talks. Rahul Gandhi is of the view that the allies should not insist on seat allocation on the basis of the 2004 experience, when the Congress was a fringe player in both UP and Bihar. Apparently, he wants the Samajwadi Party and the RJD to take note of the improved profile and strides made by the Congress after heading the UPA government at the Centre for five years, and agree to give more seats to the party. Rahul Gandhi obviously also has in mind the weakened position of the Yadav
chieftains' parties. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party, BSP, had worsted Mulayam Singh Yadav's party in the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. The RJD suffered a similar defeat at the hands of the Nitish Kumar led Janata Dal(United)-BJP combine in Bihar.
In the south-in Tamil Nadu-the Congress is faced with the dilemma of choosing between sticking with M. Karunanidhi's DMK, and switching over to Jayalalithaa's All India Anna DMK. Tamil Nadu voters are known for not favouring the same party or combine in successive elections. Also, the DMK is no longer heading a united combine:some allies have deserted the Democratic Progressive Alliance, DPA, which it heads, and the party has also to overcome the anti-incumbency factor. In such a scenario, it would make political sense for the Congress to switch sides, and try perhaps to have a seat-sharing deal on the lines of the 1991 pact with the All India Anna DMK, when it contested 26 of the total 39 Lok Sabha seats from the state. This will help the party to boost its numbers in the Lok Sabha, which would be crucial for making a go for power at the Centre after the elections.
While the Congress is trying for a larger share of seats in talks with its allies, the BJP just wants to retain the seats it fought the last time in 2004. The party's NDA partners in Bihar, Orissa and Maharashtra want to contest a larger number of seats, which will naturally be at the cost of the saffron party.
Faced with increased demands from the allies, the BJP is trying to enhance its bargaining power. Party president Rajnath Singh's move at the weekend National Council meeting to resurrect the Ram temple issue has to be seen in this context. But it is unlikely that allies like the JDU will be impressed or bothered at the move. They may insist that the BJP accept a lesser number of seats in states like Bihar and Orissa in line with its weakened position in the body politic. The BJP does not have much choice in the matter as the JDU and the Biju Janata Dal (in Orissa) have other options available, in terms of going it alone, or having a formal or informal tie-up with the Congress. In Maharashtra, Bal Thackeray's Shiv Sena may well ally with Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party, in case a re-alignment of political forces occurs, if pushed too hard by the BJP.
With the polity being fragmented, India has entered an era where the political fortunes of the major contenders for power will be impacted by even a small increase or reduction in the number of seats they win in the next Lok Sabha. Both the Congress and the BJP have much to gain and much to lose. Moves on the political chess-board in the next month or so would be crucial.
|
