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Colin Powell visit : Will address India’s Kashmir concerns |
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The US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, is expected to arrive in New Delhi on Oct. 15 as part of his visit to the subcontinent. He will be coming to the Indian capital after a short working visit to Pakistan where he is expected to announce a sizable financial package of over $400 million. In New Delhi, he will call on Prime Minister Vajpayee and External Affairs Minister, Jaswant Singh, among others. His visit to Pakistan is armed at shoring up the shaky military regime and boost the morale of a country that finds in a terrible crisis.
On the eve of his visit, Colin Powell said, being in the same coalition [against terrorism] may cause India and Pakistan to think anew about stability in the sub-continent. In an interview with the Newsweek magazine, he said, both the bitter rivals in the Indian sub-continent have joined the US-led coalition against terrorism and this may present an opportunity for the two countries to explore new ways of thinking about stability in the region.
The Secretary of State will be travelling to the sub-continent under the vastly changed circumstances of the last four weeks. From being nearly written off as a failed state and having come very close to being put in the books as a State sponsor of terror, Pakistan finds itself in a totally different situation. Islamabad is now in the frontline of the fight against terrorism, something that has naturally riled India, given what is taking place in Jammu and Kashmir.
The US Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage said, the main purpose of Gen. Colin’s visit will be to thank India and Pakistan for their help in the US-led anti-terrorism coalition and exploring where to go next, and to address the Kashmir concerns of the two countries.
Pakistan’s concerns are mainly that India will take advantage of Islamabad’s precarious position to launch an attack on it. The jumpy Pakistan contacted the US to seek its intervention to urge India not to undertake any military adventure at a time when Pakistan had to commit much of its forces on the Western front with Afghanistan. The fears of Pakistan that India may attack grew after New Delhi expressed its shock and resentment over the suicide bomb attack on the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly in Srinagar which killed more than 40 people after which the question of allowing the Indian troops to cross the border and destroy training camps was discussed at a Cabinet meeting, with many of the Ministers favouring such an action. The Prime Minister even wrote a letter to President Bush after the bomb attack in Srinagar telling him that India’s patience was not infinite.
After the US got in touch with New Delhi and advised it restraint, New Delhi made it clear that it has no intention of taking advantage of the situation and make Pakistan’s difficult position even harder. The same message was conveyed when the Pakistan Foreign Minister, Abdul Sattar, telephoned Jaswant Singh a little before the US attack on Afghanistan and the subsequent telephone call of Gen. Musharraf to Vajpayee when he suggested that the two countries should cool down the temperature and resume dialogue.
US Administration officials have acknowledged that India has made public statements to this effect and also given Washington private assurances but that does not appear to have calmed Pakistan.
India will use the opportunity of Gen. Colin Powell’s visit to make a strong case about all-round ill-effects of Pakistan using terrorism as a State policy, leading to a significant reorientation on the issue both in Washington and Islamabad. The Bush Administration has now signalled that India has a legitimate grievance and the resulting pressure on Pakistan has led to various steps, including a phone call by Gen. Musharraf to Mr. Vajpayee and the US including Jaish-e-Mohammed. In the list of organisations whose assets in the US have been frozen. India had wanted the Lashkar-e-Toiba also included in the list. The US Ambassador in New Delhi has said that the list was not a one-time affair and will continue to be expanded as and evidence comes by of involvement of more groups in acts of terrorism.
The US State Department indicated on Oct. 12 that Colin Powell, during his visit to Pakistan, will ask Islamabad to deny facilities for terrorist groups to operate and dissuade them from resorting to violence. State Department spokesman, Richard Boucher, who made it clear that there is no change in the US policy on Kashmir, indicated that the part of Colin Powell’s message would be to reiterate the US policy of asking the parties in the region to see their influence to deny facilities to make it more difficult for terrorist groups to operate.
India has made its point on more than one occasion on Pakistan’s role in fomenting terrorism and violence in Jammu and Kashmir. The US is very aware of what is taking place on the ground. It does not require qualifications of a rocket scientist to figure out what is happening by way of terrorism in the Indian subcontinent. India realizes that at a time when Pakistan has signed on to the US campaign against Taliban and is the frontline state in the efforts against Afghanistan, no one in the political establishment in Washington is in any mood to antagonize Islamabad. But, Government sources in New Delhi say, this does not mean that Washington will not have anything to say at all to Pakistan. In fact, it is felt that it was because of pressure from the Bush Administration that Pakistan has started cracking down on domestic extremism. The US-led campaign has already started paying dividends for India. Pakistan, it is noted, is now taking steps to dissociate itself from terrorist activity in the Kashmir Valley. The first sign was Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s acknowledgement that the Oct. 1 blast in the Assembly premises in Srinagar was an act of terrorism. Officials in New Delhi also confirm that Pakistani terrorists are pulling out of the Valley along with the Afghans who had been asked to redeploy back in Afghanistan earlier. “Take this with the destruction in Afghanistan of camps being used to train terrorists for Kashmir and you can see what India has gained”, an official said. He also pointed to the perceptible decline in the number of security forces’ casualties in the Valley. The replacement of a committed Jehadi who was overseeing the terrorist operations in Kashmir, the ISI chief, Lt. Gen. Mahmood Ahmed, under pressure from the US and his replacement by a moderate, Ehsanul Haq, may also have a moderating impact on the terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir.
Further, it is now confirmed by sources in New Delhi that the huge fire at the Pakistan Army Headquarters that bunted for five long hours has reduced the Administration and Training Directorates of the Pakistan Army to ashes but miraculously stopped short of the Operations Directorate. Indian intelligence officials say these two directorates house all files relating to the Pakistan Army’s involvement in Afghanistan. these include the list of personnel seconded to the Taliban as well as their training and service records.
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