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Changing political scenario |
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B.I. Saini
The way in which the political stalemate in Maharashtra has been resolved and the change of guard in the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party have the potential for bringing about fundamental political changes in the country. With two Marathas occupying the top two political positions in Maharashtra, the stage is set for a struggle, which may be below the surface initially, for supremacy in the state. The Nationalist Congress Party has always considered itself a representative of the Maratha community and has drawn strength from its hold over the sugar and other agricultural cooperatives in the state. The Congress, on the other hand, has had a broader base, seeking to represent different communities and interest groups in the state. A symbol of this was outgoing Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde, who represented the dalit (low caste) face of the party.
The broader appeal of the Congress obviously did not give the party the desired results in the Assembly elections. The party, though contesting a larger number of seats than the NCP, was pushed to the second place. This factor appears to have played a major role in the sudden party decision to replace Shinde by Vilasrao Deshmukh, a former Chief Minister, who was not allowed to complete his full five-year term in the previous Assembly. The fact that the party had to fall back upon him shows that it does not want to be marginalised by the NCP.
For retaining the Chief Ministership despite having a lower number of MLAs, the Congress has had to pay a heavy price to the Nationalist Congress Party. The NCP will not only have 24 Ministers compared to 19 of the Congress, but also prime portfolios including Home Affairs. On major issues, the NCP Ministers will be in a position to vote down the Congress Ministers at cabinet meetings. Vilasrao Deshmukh will have a difficult task ahead, taking care of his party’s interests as well as keeping the coalition running.
The Shiv Sena and the BJP would not be averse to fishing in troubled waters to destabilise the NCP-Congress government. This is clear from the Shiv Sena offer earlier to support the NCP to form a government if it was not able to reach an agreement with the Congress on the issue of Chief Ministership.
The other major development of the week, the complete return of the BJP to its Hindutva (Hindu activism) agenda will have far reaching impact at the national level. New BJP president L.K. Advani, has made it clear that the Ram Temple issue will be the most important issue to be pursued by the party, come what may. The party is not bothered much about parting company with its partners in the National Democratic Alliance on the issue. Sooner than later, this may lead to a reorganisation of political groupings in the country. The Bihar Assembly elections, to be held within in a few months, are expected to speed up the process. The Lok Jan Shakti party of Ram Bilas Paswan has already parted company with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal in the state and is searching for new allies to face the electorate in the coming Assembly elections. Though some haggling is going on between the Lok Jan Shakti Party and the Janata Dal United on the terms for facing the voters together in Bihar, there is a political compulsion for both to reach an agreement. The only thing which appears to be standing in the way at present is Janata Dal (U) president George Fernandes’ close ties with BJP leaders. But the two most important leaders of the JD(U) in Bihar - Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav, appear to be all set to dump the BJP and go in with the Lok Jan Shakti party to fight Lalu Prasad Yadav and his party. The Congress in the emerging scenario may try to play the role of a peace-maker between Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Bilas Paswan, but the chances of success appear to be bleak.
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