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Census report : Controversy over growth of Muslims

	September 13, 2004

The report on population growth in India, which seemed to indicate that the Muslims were the fastest growing community has sparked a big debate. The different yardsticks used and the inclusion of J & K Muslims in the 2001 Census report seem to have added to the confusion.

Even as the Census Commission withdrew its 2001 report to readjust the Muslim growth rate from 36.02 per cent to 29.3 per cent, the National Commission for Minorities appointed four noted population experts to analyse the data threadbare. NCM Chairperson Tarlochan Singh said the “committee would analyse the Census report minutely to enable the NCM to prepare roadmaps for different minority groups”.

Prof Ashish Bose, Director of the Society for Applied Research on Humanities, would head the panel. The other members include Prof P.M. Kulkarni of the Centre for Studies on Regional Development (JNU), Prof Mari Bhat of the Population Research Centre (JNU) and T.K. Roy of the Kolkata-based International Institute of Population Study.

Bose, who had released the Census 2001 report, was the first to question the high Muslim growth rate indicated in the introductory chapter. “Among the six major religious communities, the decadal growth of the Muslims is the highest (36.0 pc) in the 2001 Census,” the report said, which he found to be “abnormally high”.

Kulkarni, who has conducted extensive research on Hindu-Muslim differentials in South Asia, said: “The mistake made in computing percentage gave the exaggerated differential between the two communities. By straightaway using 1991 as the denominator and 2001 as the nominator, they arrived at an erroneous figure.”

Besides, the Hindu growth rate has also been wrongly shown as 20.4 per cent, whereas it is 19.9 per cent. “Since the margin of error in case of the Muslim community is greater, it is catching everyone’s eye,” Kulkarni said.

The Home Ministry, unhappy with the manner in which Census Commissioner A.K. Bainthia handled the sensitive data on religion, has termed it “an error of judgement” on his part.

The 2001 Census report has added fuel to the anti-Muslim fire, with members of the minority community fearing that the data could be used as propaganda against the community in the run-up to the forthcoming Assembly elections.

The 2001 Census initially pegged the decadal growth rate among the Muslim community at 36 per cent.

A day later, news reports stated that the exclusion of Jammu and Kashmir - which has a high Muslim population - from the Census survey in 1991 and its inclusion in 2001 suggested that the growth rate was alarming. They don’t deny the growth rate but say that the reasons for it - poverty and illiteracy - apply to any community

The Census 2001 numbers are cause for concern: the percentage of population in the age group of 0-6 years (considered an indicator of fertility), is the maximum among Muslims at 18.7 per cent. But the statewise break-up of data shows a pattern: a close link between fertility rates in the Muslim community and economic development of the region, as also the literacy levels, especially among women.

The states earmarked backward like Haryana, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttaranchal, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh show a much higher fertility rate for the Muslim community than the relatively more developed states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarat. Literacy rates are also relatively lower in the states where fertility is higher.

“The high growth and fertility rates are because of lower literacy rates, unemployment and backwardness of the community. The BIMARU states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) have high growth rates not just among the Muslims but also among the Hindus. In case of Muslims, it is worse also because of conservatism in their society,” says demographer Ashish Bose.

According to him, the “basic howler” committed by politicians is to expect that Muslim and Hindu growth rate or of any other community should be the same. “Such a thing is not possible. The fertility rate among Muslims is higher all over the world compared to other communities in that region. Factors like tradition, purdah (veil) and lack of family planning are responsible for it,” Bose argued. He said that with education, awareness and development, even Muslims can control their growth rate. Countries like Bangladesh and Indonesia had already achieved considerable success in family planning by using methods like IUD and the oral pill. Even Indian Muslims could do it, he said, but with some help.

Muslim leader Syed Shahabuddin said that they were worried about the educational and economic backwardness of the community. “I had once written to Advani (BJP leader) telling him that I appreciated his concern about the Muslim growth rate. And I told him that the solution is to give them more schools and more jobs,” he said.

Criticising what he calls the “politicisation” of Census data, Shahabuddin said the answer to the question is not to target the Muslims but to bring them on a par with the rest of the country in education, jobs and opportunities.



Politicising Census figures

The report on Muslim population increase came as a handy one for the Hindutva brigade. The Sangh Parivar (RSS family) rushed in to seize upon the latest Census data on religion as “vindication” of their claim that Hindus in India were “under threat” from a rising Muslim population. It blamed both “infiltration” and “the role of Muslim leaders” for the high rate of growth among Muslims.

In Bangalore, BJP president Venkaiah Naidu said the demographic trends were “a cause of grave concern for all those who think of India’s unity and integrity in the long run.” The Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), typically, was a lot more strident. At a function in Ahmedabad, Gujarat VHP leader Chinubhai Patel was quoted as saying: “The situation is alarming going by the 36 per cent growth in the number of Muslims in the country. The community is conspiring to convert Hindu Rajya (Hindu Nation) into a Muslim country.” He appealed to Hindus to unitedly “defeat” the purpose of the Muslims. Significantly, while discussing the reasons for the imbalance between the Hindu and Muslim rates of growth, RSS leader Ram Madhav said one reason for the declining rate among Hindus, “especially middle-class” Hindus was the adoption of the one or two-child norm.

Asked if that meant that the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) agreed with the view that the high rate of fertility among Muslims was linked to their high rates of poverty and backwardness, Madhav was quick to disagree. “No, it is not about poverty levels but it is about educating the people. If the (Muslim) leadership encourages you to produce more, it results in higher fertility rates.”

That apart, illegal infiltration, too, was playing a role, he said. “There are between 1.25 and 1.75 crore infiltrators from Bangladesh. Most infiltrators have got ration cards and got their names onto the voters’ list, especially in Assam, Bihar and West Bengal. We are not clear whether their numbers have been included in the Census.”

Naidu, too, referred to the “alarming” phenomenon of “demographic invasion” by Bangladeshi infiltrators, indicating that the Census figures would provide fresh fillip to the BJP’s campaign on that front. The BJP leadership would discuss the Census findings thoroughly and come out with a detailed response shortly, he said.

The RSS, Madhav said, wanted the entire country to take the implications of the Census seriously and not see it as a “communal or secular” issue. “We are not saying that Hindus should have more children or Muslims should not be here. We are only asking for balance and stability.” Population stability was in the overall interest of the country, and all communities should practise family planning uniformly, he said.

Meanwhile, denying that the Census Commission had released any “misleading” data, Registrar General J K Banthia has pointed out that two sets of figures were released for the Muslim rate of growth. And the “adjusted” figures, keeping into account that there was no Census in J&K in 1991, showed that the growth of Muslim population in the country has decelerated.

These “adjusted” figures show that the growth rate of the Muslim population fell from 32.9 per cent in 1981-91 to 29.3 percent in 1991-2001. The growth rate of the Hindu population fell from 22.8 percent in 1981-91 to 20 percent in 1991-2001. But releasing “unadjusted” figures did create an inaccurate picture of the religion-wise growth of population in the decade 1991-2001. In the 1991 census, J&K was not surveyed. As a result, the number of Muslims reported in 1991 excluded those who lived in J&K.

The “unadjusted” rate suggested that the growth of the Muslim population had accelerated from 34 per cent to 36 per cent from the decade of the 1980s to that of the 1990s, while that of the Hindu population has decelerated from 25 per cent to 20 percent.