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Cabinet reshuffle in the offing : Allies step up pressure

	January 28, 2008

Pressure from constituents of the United Progressive Al¬liance (UPA) and the electoral compulsions of the Congress it¬self, observers say, point towards a month-end reshuffle of the Manmohan Ministry. Reports say that the Congress core committee met at the Prime Minister’s residence on the morning of Jan. 22 to discuss changes in the Cabinet and the organisation.



DMK chief and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi, reports say, has already hinted to Dr. Manmohan Singh that he would like his daughter and Rajya Sabha MP Kanimozhi to be in¬ducted into the Union Council of Ministers. On the record, however, he wrote in the DMK mouthpiece, Murasoli, that his daughter did not want to become a Minister or be inducted in the Union Cabinet. But observers take this with a pinch of salt. One slot in the Council of Ministers for the DMK has been vacant after A. Raja was moved to the Communications and IT Ministry following Dayanidhi Maran’s dropping from the Cabinet. Dayanidhi Maran had fallen out with the DMK chief who wanted him to resign, which he did.



With recent byelections in Bihar not bringing cheer to Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the party is keen on having its own version of social engineering in the state. Lalu Prasad Yadav whose Muslim-Yadav votebank does not appear to be adequate to revive the party fortunes in Bihar, wants to gain the support of the Brahmin votes in north Bihar. The RJD chief has reportedly been pressing for the inclusion of his party colleague Raghunath Jha, a Brahmin from North Bihar, in the Union Council of Ministers.



Jharkhand Mukti Morcha chief Shibu Soren wants to be rein¬stated as Coal Minister after his acquittal in a murder case.



The Congress itself wants to shore up the party organisation in states including those which are going to have Assembly elec¬tions this year. Party sources say that Minister of State for Personnel and Parliamentary Affairs Suresh Pachouri has been short-listed to head the Madhya Pradesh Congress unit. The party believes that his skills in resolving differences and conflict resolution could come in handy in the faction-ridden state unit.



Reports say it has been more or less decided by the Congress high command that Priyaranjan Dasmunsi will head the West Bengal Congress. This may mean that Dasmunsi may have to shed one of the two portfolios he holds, Information and Broadcasting and Parliamentary Affairs.



There are also reports that Maharashtra Governor S.M. Krish¬na wants to go back to politics and would like to play a role in Karnataka, which is going to have Assembly elections by April or May.





Reshuffle could be comprehensive



There are reports that instead of just filling up the vacan¬cies and meeting the demands from allies, there is a possibility that the coming reshuffle could be a comprehensive exercise in order to get the UPA government ready to face the Lok Sabha elections due in 15 months’ time.



Sources said the reshuffle could be the last one before the tenure of the Manmohan Singh government, which has already com¬pleted three years and eight months, expires.



“The reshuffle would be meant to give a momentum to the government’s work whose impact now needs to be visible on the ground, especially in the social sector that has been its primary focus all along,” said a senior AICC leader. He said the exer¬cise might involve the induction of young Congress leaders into the Council of Ministers.



Congress president Sonia Gandhi has also repeatedly empha¬sised the need for inducting more young party leaders into posi¬tions of authority in the organisation as well as the government.



While the portfolios of heavyweight ministers like Pranab Mukherjee (External Affairs), Arjun Singh (HRD) and P Chidam¬baram (Finance) are unlikely to be changed, sources were not so certain about the Home Minister, Shivraj Patil, whose perfor¬mance is considered “unsatisfactory” in some quarters.



The reshuffle might also witness some swapping of leaders between the government and the organisation to sharpen the focus of both entities.



Asked by journalists in New Delhi on Saturday, Jan. 26, about speculation of a Cabinet reshuffle, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that they would get to know when it happened. “You will hear about it,” the Prime Minister told media persons when asked about the matter at a reception given by President Pratibha Patil at Rashtrapati Bhavan. The At Home was held up by 25 minutes because of delay in the arrival of French President Nicolas Sarkozy who visited the Taj Mahal at Agra earlier in the day. The entire top brass waited for nearly half an hour for the Guest of Honour to arrive.



Among those who attended the At Home were UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee, Chief Justice K.G. Balakrishnan, BJP president Rajnath Singh, CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechury, CPI secretary D. Raja, Cabinet Ministers and diplomats.





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UPA ahead, but NDA gains ground



An opinion poll conducted by news magazine India Today, shows that while the United Progressive Alliance is still ahead in public support, the opposition National Democratic Alliance, is catching up and its support base has risen in the last one year.



The numbers still show the ruling combine ahead by a reason¬able margin, but the gap has narrowed considerably since the Feb. 2007 poll. As far as the prime-ministerial choice is con¬cerned, Atal Bihari Vajpayee remains in the lead.



Among the others, while L.K. Advani has gained more follow¬ing, he still trails both Sonia Gandhi and Dr. Manmohan Singh.



The opinion poll findings show that a majority of people oppose the idea of religion-based reservation. Fifty-one per cent of votes polled were against reservation based on religion, with only 34 per cent supporting the idea. But in the case of reservation for other backward classes (OBCs), 36 per cent supported the policy, while the number of those against OBC reservation was 17 per cent.



At a personal level, most of those polled, 54 per cent, oppose the idea of their children marrying outside their caste and religion.



The opinion poll found that 35.4 per cent of the respondents would vote for the NDA if elections were held now, up from 33.9 per cent a year ago. The UPA share has fallen from 40.2 to 38.6 per cent. Translated into seats, this would mean that while the ruling combine may secure between 236 and 245 seats in the 542 member Lok Sabha, the NDA would end up getting anywhere between 176 and 185 seats. In the Feb. 2007 poll, UPA was slated to get 263 to 273 seats while the NDA was projected to get from 150 to 160 seats.



For the post of Prime Minister, Vajpayee enjoyed the support of 25 per cent of those polled, 1 per cent more than his support in Feb. 2007. Sonia Gandhi’s support has gone down by four per cent from 20 to 16. Advani has more than doubled his support from a meagre 4 per cent to a respectable nine per cent, but still loses out to Manmohan Singh who enjoys the support of 15 per cent, one per cent more than last year.



In a significant pointer, the opinion poll shows that Maya¬wati is ahead of other contenders getting the support of five per cent of those polled. Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi had the support of 4 per cent each.



The number of people who think the Left is slowing down economic reforms, has gone up to 39 per cent from 34 last year. Twenty-eight per cent of those polled said that the Left parties have lost credibility because of what happened in Nandigram.



On the Indo-US nuclear deal, 25 per cent of those polled were in favour of going ahead with it. Another 16 per cent said they would support going ahead with the deal if there is consen¬sus on the issue. Another 16 per cent were opposed to the deal.